The Picks in Barcelona, Stuttgart, Munich: Sunday, April 23

Iga Swiatek
Mal Taam/MALT photo

Stuttgart
Iga Swiatek over Aryna Sabalenka

You have to wonder how  the No. 1 Swiatek became so excellent, again. Maybe it is during this week, when she is in the amazing clay, as she did win Roland Garros, twice. However, this year, she has been up and down, with her hard strokes.

She does know that against the 2023 Australian Open Sabalenka is mighty with her forehand and her backhand, that she can kick down anyone. However, on the hardcourts, she can control what she has to do, and she can also decide if she wants to switch it. At times, she can, but while she knows on the dirt for years, she would over hit, with a lot of errors. Sabalenka has certainly improved her serve, but it is mediocre. That is why Swiatek will be more patient, and also, she will hit some ridiculous shots. The Poland person will win in two, long, sets.

Barcelona
Carlos Alcaraz over Stefanos Tsitsipas

The Spaniard just said that he is feeling great, on court, and he is playing so steady. Alcaraz  grew up when he first started how to play on clay and on the hardcourts, and it took him a while,  but he did it very quickly. He is just so fast when he is running, and he can do almost everything, with his forehand, his backhand, his serve and at the net. Yes, Alcaraz will likely become No. 1 again, but he still isn’t perfect, yet. Maybe in a few years, but he is young, so he still has to conclude exactly the right shots.

Tsitsipas is playing darn well, and he can look great, but then he hits some odd errors. However at least he really concentrates, and he can also seriously alloy it with his one-handed backhand. His forehand is very sturdy, and his first serve is rap good.
However, Alcaraz  has beaten him all three times, including in Barcelona last year, winning in three sets. He will do it again, in another three sets, when Alcaraz hops in the line and put it away, again and again.

Two quick pics
Banja Luka, Bosnia & Herzegovina


Andrey Rublev over Dusan Lajovic
The Serbian veteran Lajovic has had a surprising week, but apparently, he is playing wonderful ball. However, the Russian Rublev is much more secure again, and he will win it in straight sets.

Munich
Holger Rune over Boticvan Van de Zandschulp

That could be a very long match, and while Rune has played insane over the past two weeks, yet he is still not playing as well as he can. However, he is rising quickly, but Van de Zandschulp also playing very devout, taking down against Taylor Fritz. The Netherlands seems to think that he can chop him down, but Rune  will out steady him in a bizarre three sets.

Matt’s yesterday picks

Correct: Iga Swiatek over Aryna Sabalenka
Correct: Carlos Alcaraz over Stefanos Tsitsipas
Correct: Holger Rune over Boticvan Van de Zandschulp

Andrey Rublev over Dusan Lajovic

Matt’s picks this week

15 out of 18: 83.3% correct

The Picks in Barcelona, Munich, Stuttgart: Thursday, April 20

Dan Evans
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Picks written on Wednesday, before play started.

Barcelona

Daniel Evans over Karen Khachanov
This is somewhat surprising  that Evans has a 3-0 head to head, not because that he can be so steady, but also, he found away to trouble him. Khachanov is ranked No. 11, and he has gone somewhat deep at the big tournaments on the hard courts, but he cannot figure him out on the clay. They have played only on the hard courts, so this time, it will be on the dirt. Because of that, there will be long rallies, and while the Russian can crush the ball, he can fall down. With that, the veteran Evans will win it again, with two, odd, sets.

Munich

Alexander Zverev over Christopher O’Connell
You never now how the German stands up, on the court and off.  There has to be thousands of fans, watching Zverev, on the court, hitting some tremendous shots, and throwing in a number of winners. Yes, he can be angry when he is not playing well, but now he is more patient with his thoughts.

The Australian O’Connell has had a mediocre year, losing a lot, but at least he upset over Roberto Bautista Agut in Doha, and then believe it or not, in Dubai, he beat Emil Ruusuvuori. Then he tried to shock Zvereva, but he went down  7-5, 6-4. Not so bad, but it was gone. O’Connell can be steady, yet  Zverev really knows how to play, and he will win in two, simple sets.

Stuttgart

Coco Gauff over Anastasia Potapova
The American Gauff somehow came over from the ocean and apparently, she wasn’t tired, so in the court, she won it 7-6 in the third set over Daria Kasatkina.  She is a teenager, so she rarely gets tired, but this time her legs can start to crumple, but not that time. She did reach into the 2022 Roland Garros final,  and then she lost, but her backhand was tremendous.
 
The 22-year-old Potapova is rising, as each month, she is improving her volley. Last year, she had some solitary matches, but on clay at Istanbul, Turkey, she won it all, not against the great players, but good enough. The Russian is so intense, on the court, and while at Indian Wells and Miami, she lost against Jessica Petula, twice, but it was super close. This is a toss up, as they are both want to win a gigantic tournament, yet right now,  Gauff will edge her in three, very long, sets.

Elena Rybakina  over Beatriz Haddad Maia
The Russian Rybakina played a terrific tournament, winning Indian weeks, and at Miami when she reached the final, beating Jessica Petula in the semis. She did lose in the final, but she played so hard with some incredible strokes.  She never really became tired, which means she is incredible shape.
However, even though Rybakina won at the 2022 Wimbledon, she has yet to understand on the clay, when you have to totally change it up. 

Believe it or not, the Brazilan Haddad Maia beat in Abu Dhabi in February, in the quarters, in three crazy sets. Maybe  Rybakina  was mentally tired, but Haddad Maia  had some insane shots. She is fast, and steady, but there are times when she becomes confused. Because of that, Rybakina wants to revenge her, and she will win it in three, fun, sets.

Matt’s yesterday picks

Correct: Marcos Giron over Alexander Ritschard
Correct: Novak Djokovic over Luca van Assche

Matt’s current week picks

7 out of 7: 100% correct

The Picks in Barcelona, Stuttgart, Munich: Wednesday, April 19

Caroline Garcia
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Barcelona Open Banc Sabadel
Carlos Alcaraz over Roberto Bautista Agut

Last year, the former U.S. Open champion Alcaraz crushed him 6-2 6-0
at Indian Wells.  At that point, the young man was on fire, and the very good veteran had a lousy day. But now they are on clay, as the Spaniards are hoping to be highly consistent, and to pulp there forehand and there backhand. Alcaraz can be a little bit wild, yet he really does not care because he believes that in the next point, he can find it on the lines.

The 35-year-old has had some wonderful years, but Bautista Agut is slipping back, so Alcaraz  will win it in two, long, sets.

Stuttgart
Caroline Garcia over Tatjana Maria
This will be a very tough match as they have played each other twice, on the grass and on the clay, and the Frenchwoman won it two times, yet it was three sets, and it was pretty darn close. Garcia can romp the ball, running side to side, and also, to change into the net. Maria is 35-years-old, but she still is pretty fast when she is running. She did win Bogota, which was surprising, but clearly, she wants to keep playing until she will have to retire. The German will change against Garcia, and she does like to mix it up, but in the third set, the Frenchwomen will hit a few terrific backhands and win it in three sets.

Paula Badosa over Cristina Bucsa
At the Australian Open, the Spaniard Bucsa qualified, and then she upset two respectable, but in the third round, Iga Swiatek crushed her. She must have been happy for a little while, but after that, she must have been totally frustrated. Bucsa  can be somewhat proper and she can also really go for it.

The same thing goes with Badosa, who can be a very fun player, on the court, but she is trying to figure out where she has to go. She has won a decent amount of matches, but not enough. The No. 31 Badosa looked pretty decent in Charleston, and she won three matches, so it appears that she is rising again. On the clay, Badosa will win it in two, lengthy sets.

Munich
Marcos Giron over Alexander Ritschard

They have yet to play each other, and while it is early, they want to get impression. The American Giron has had a so-so year, even though in 2022, he won some fine tournaments. Now, he is struggling, and while he can be proper, but currently, he cannot knock down the very good players — yet. The Swiss Ritschard did have a decent last year, on the hardcourts, but on the clay, he could not move up, hardly at all.  Yes, he can be somewhat consistent, but he cannot hit the ball hard enough. Therefore, Giron will beat him in two decent sets.

Matt’s yesterday picks

Correct: Jelena Ostapenko over Emma Raducanu
Correct: David Goffin over Feliciano Lopez
Correct: Diego Schwartzman over Yibing Wu
Correct: Cameron Norrie over Pavel Kotov
Correct: Denis Shapovalov over Jozef Kovalik

Matt’s current week picks

5 out of 5: 100% correct

The Picks in Barcelona, Banja Luka, Stuttgart: Tuesday, April 18

Cameron Norrie
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Barcelona Open Banc Sabadel
Cameron Norrie over Pavel Kotov
The Britain is always playing and he rarely loses very early, as over the past two years, he changed a lot of his strokes. He is very strong, and he can thud his forehand and his backhand. Norrie had a fine year, upsetting a number of good people, yet right now, he has been up and down, very good, or so-so.

However, when he is playing solid, then he should be able to out-think Kotov, who is fairly young, and the 24-year-old did just reach into the semis in Morocco, upsetting Benjamin Bonzi. Clearly, he is rising a little bit, but he is out of the top 100, so he still has to really improve his shots. Norrie will beat him in two, somewhat easy, sets.

Denis Shapovalov over Jozef Kovalik
Is it time for the Canadian to stand up? Shapovalov can look terrific, with his leaping backhand, and smashing his forehand. His first serve is solid, but not fantastic, while at the net, he still needs to improve. Without a doubt, last year, he knocked out a number of very good players, but in 2023, he has done very little. This week, he will try to wake up.

The Slovakian Jozef Kovalik is 30-years-old, and in the singles, he has yet to take down the excellent players. That is why he is ranked No. 155, which mean that he is struggling to stay in the ATP. Maybe he can one day, but not now, as Shapovalov will beat him in two sets.

Banja Luka
Novak Djokovic over Luca Van Assche
Maybe it looks like that Djokovic will crush him, but Van Assche is only 18-year-old, so in the next five years, he can improve himself a tremendous amount. The Frenchman has won two small events this year, and while they did not beat any players outside of the top 100, but still, just to win it all, he certainly is rising, fast. On clay, he can mix it around and vault on the ball. While he must be so psyched to play against the 21 Grand Slam winner Djokovic, but he will likely be nervous, so the No.1 Serbian Novak will win it in two decent sets.

Stuttgart
Iga Swiatek over Qinwen Zheng
The No. 1 Swiatek has not had a great year, but she has been hurt, physically, so this week, assuming that she is healthy, she will be ready to re-set her life. Both her forehand and her backhand are so hard, and almost immediately, she will attempt to nail a winner, fast. At times, she can go too early, and she can also become upset when she cannot hit it in the right way, but if she can breathe, then eventually, she can turn it around.

Zheng is only 20-years-old and already, she is ranked in the top 25. That is not easy for anyone, so while she has not had a great 2023 season, at least last year, she upset a number of good players, such as Paula Badosa and Veronika Kudermetova. The problem though, it that while she is superfast when she is running, but at the 2022 Roland Garros, Swiatek beat Zheng in three sets. Currently, it is all about the clay, ever though in Germany, it is indoors, so it will be faster. Regardless, Swiatek will beat Zheng in three sets, just like they did in Paris.

Pliskova grabs big clay win in Stuttgart


Finally, Karolina Pliskova won a tournament, a big tournament, beating CoCo Vandeweghe 7-6 (2), 6-4 in the final at Stuttgart.

Over the past few years, the Czech has been pretty close to win a major, but she hasn’t, and now, she feels like that she is back. 
But with Pliskova, you never, ever know. She is a gigantic hitter, she can smash her forehand and her backhand, and at the net, she can put it away, down low or high up in the sky. Obviously, she is tall, and she will never be super fast, but even last year, she became quicker and more intelligent. Pliskova rarely gets tired, too, because she practices a heck of a lot. Mentally, when she isn’t playing well, she can get very frustrated, and she loses her control. 

But the No. 6 has matured, so during the rest of the season, she will have a chance to win a major. Maybe at Wimbledon, certainly at the US Open, but actually win Roland Garros? That would be pretty surprising. Yes, she won Stuttgart last week, but it is indoors. She’ll be unprotected and in the elements in the three huge events coming up — Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros. That is harder, as it can be very windy, breezy, hot, cold — you name it. Perhaps Pliskova will prevail, but she has to prove it, as she hasn’t won a Grand Slam yet.

At Barcelona, Rafa Nadal crushed Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-2 6-1 in the final. I here that the 19-year-old Tsitsipas is rising, but he has a long way to go.

As many people have said, what to say about Nadal, who is dominating on the clay court. He has won 46 matches in a row, and not only that, but he doesn’t even drop sets. It is somewhat surprising, not because he is better than anyone on the dirt, because even three weeks ago, he was still injured. As Nadal has said, that he should have not started on court in January, at a couple of events, because he wasn’t ready to run and swing. Nadal has always wanted to smash the ball, from the time he was young, but now, he is in the early 30s, and over the past five years, he has had to pull out because his body was totally wrecked. 

Nadal has to be more patient, and diligent, which means that when he goes to Madrid, if he starts to hurt, he should just walk away. Or, if he wins the title in Spain — again — maybe the Spaniard will not play in Rome. In 2013, he won Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome and RG. That was his best season, so far.But that was five years ago. Right now, yes, he has improved his backhand and he pushes forward, but still, his body is wearing down.

We all know that when he arrives at Roland Garros (which he has won 10 times, which is mind blowing, he could get hurt again. And then what? Nadal is a huge favorite, anytime, anywhere on clay, but if he twists his knees, or his back, then he might not be able to raise the trophy one more time in Paris. 

Funny quote from the young Greek about facing the legendary Nadal: “I’ve watched him millions of times on TV, but it’s tougher to face him in reality.”

Nadal played great at Monte Carlo, but will he stay healthy?


These days, you never know how Rafa Nadal will play on court because over the past nine months, he was hurt all the time. Even in the first three months, in 2018, he could barely play. 

However, in Monte Carlo, he looked pretty healthy. But at 100 percent? It was hard to tell until he walked on the court, he was ready to play for hours, he ran fast, he crushed the ball, so heavily, and he was so confident. He must have been so happy that he was playing in the clay again. 

In Monte Carlo, he won five matches to win the title, and he did not lose a set. He won 10 sets (60 games), and he only lost 21 games. That is damn good. He blew out Dominic Thiem, he pushed Grigor Dimitrov into the ground, and out muscled Kei Nisihikori 6-3, 6-2 in the final. Nadal: the best clay courter, ever.

But will he stay healthy over the next two months? He has to, because if he gets hurt again, the 31-year-old will have to go back to the drawing board. I would think that he has to be very careful this season. In 2017, on clay, he dominated, but after he won Roland Garros for the 10th time, he went down pretty quickly. His knees where shot. He cannot beat himself again as he beats up everyone else in the spring, clay-court season. 

Nadal is playing in Barcelona this week, which he has won many times. It should be tough, though, as he could face Nishikori again, in the third round, and possibly, in the quarters. He could play against the 12-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic or against Feliciano Lopez. They are all long-time veterans, but regardless, Nadal has always known how to be patient. Plus, now, he can move forward and attack.

Djokovic has been really struggling, even though he showed some resurgence in Monte Carlo, but he will be super consistent again. It will take a few more months, though. He won’t go away.  

Here is a good comparison, according by the ATP, of Roger Federer, Nadal and Djokovic:

Grand Slam titles/losses:
RF 20/72 
ND 12/52
RN 16/51

In the ATP 1000s: 
RF 27 titles
ND 30 titles 
RN 31 titles

The ATP Finals:
RF 6 titles 
ND 5 titles
RN 0 titles

Total “Big 3” titles:
RF 53
ND 47
RN 47

By the end of the year in late November for the ATP Finals at the 02 Arena on indoor hard courts, Nadal’s knees are pretty shot. Maybe in seven months, Nadal will be 100 percent, healthy wise. He hopes. 

Notes on a Draw Sheet: Nadal rising

Nadal is recovering well, but can he beat other excellent players?

Rafa Nadal won another clay tournament. Just like in Monte Carlo, his victory in Barcelona gives him 10 titles in two clay events.

In the final, he crushed Dominic Thiem. As the Belgian said, there was no way he could win when the Spaniard kept smashing into his backhand. The young Thiem can wail his strokes from behind the baseline, hitting it as hard as he can, but his one-hander gets pushed way back in the court, and it was rare that he could nail it on the lines.

Against Nadal over the past 12 years, few can do it.

The 30-year-old has now won 51 titles on clay. Rafa clearly loves it, and although he hasn’t won a Grand Slam in almost three years, but he is trying very hard. Without a doubt, Nadal has to improve his backhand and his second serve — if he wants to. But we will find out very soon because he will play at the ATP 1000 at Madrid next week and then Rome.

Hopefully, he will get a chance to match up with Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray (who lost against Thiem in the semis) to find out whether he has actually improved enough to bring down the best. If he does, the 14-time Grand Slam champion will be the favorite at Roland Garros. If he does not, at least five players can win it all — Nadal, Roger Federer, Djokovic, Murray and Stan Wawrinka.

Siegemund wins but Pliskova stalls

Out of nowhere, the 29-year-old Laura Siegemund shocked Kristina Mladenovic 6-1 2-6 7-6(5) to win Stuttgart. Two years ago, she was out of the top 100. In fact, for 10 years, she was unable to get into the top 100 at all. In 2015, finally, she did, swinging much harder than she did. It has taken her a very long time but at least she can finally say that when she is on, she can beat anyone. Well, most of them …

Mladenovic overcame Maria Sharapova in a tough marathon in the semis. The Frenchwoman is looking much better than she did before; she has always been a little bit slow and she hits some crazy shots, but when she comes to the net, she can put it away. This year, she may finally reach the top 10. But at Roland Garros she may be to nervous to make a statement.

How about Karolina Pliskova, who loses against Siegemund in Stuttgart. But, on Monday in Prague, the Czech lost in the first round against Camila Giorgi. The No. 3 Pliskova is excellent some days, and, on other days, mediocre at best. Sure, she can become No. 1 this year, but more importantly, she has to win a major. Or next year, because some people don’t think that a couple former No. 1s deserved to be super great. Look at Caro Wozniaki, who was No. 1 for almost two years, but she was unable to win a Grand Slam. Maybe she will someday —or not.

Right now, Pliskova has to do the same thing: at Roland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open, where she has to shake off her nerves and go for it.

The Pick, Barcelona, April 22: Cilic vs Burgos, is Marin ready to play well again?

Marin still has potential, but will he show it in '12?

The US Open champion is trying to play well again.

Marin Cilic vs Victor Estrella Burgos, Barcelona, April 22

It is pretty incredible that Burgos is now 34 years old and he is still out there, currently ranked No. 52, which is pretty darn good considering that the Dominican Republic has very few players who have even made it on the ATP World Tour. Baseball, anyone? Regardless, Burgos has hung in there at the singles. He is fast, but small at 5-foot-8 and isn’t powerful enough to go toe-to-toe with lots of players. But on clay, that’s an entire matter all together. He won Ecuador in February, upsetting Feliciano Lopez in the final. He then won a Challenger in Morelos, Mexico.

Last week in Monte Carlo, he bested Simon Bolelli in the first round and then he retired against David Ferrer. So while he was been playing well, and he thinks he has a real chance against Cilic, who might be a little hurt. If he isn’t running up and down everywhere than he will have no chance.

Is the US Open champion Cilic is ready to go now? It’s hard to say. He did return at Miami and he lost in the first round. But last week, he won two contests over Mayer and Tsonga, which was terrific, but then he was blasted by Djokovic.

It will take the tall man a while to be completely ready. He has never loved clay, but when his forehands are blasting two and fro and he attacks on his foes’ second serve then he can be threatening. At the 2014 US Open, he could do anything he wanted to. But now he has to have tremendous patience. Let’s assume that the huge server Cilic will believe in himself again and win it over Burgos in third set.

Perseverance pays off: Mattek-Sands belts Lisicki to reach Stuttgart semis

 

Mattek Sands IW 12 TR MALT3809

 

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Sharapova beats Ivanovic in classic; Nadal to face Raonic in Barcelona

For a large portion of 2012, Bethanie Mattek- Sands had become the forgotten woman of US tennis. Struggling with injuries and food allergies she saw her ranking drop out of the top 200. But she never gave up hope, found out which food groups were bothering her, changed her diet, let her body heal and now after knocking out Sabine Lisicki 6-4 6-2 in the semis of Stuttgart, her first Premier level semifinal in more than two years, she back in the mix again.

She was a match point down to Maryna Zanevska in the qualifying and got through. She then belted Yanina Wickmayer, stunned Sara Errani on her beloved red clay and then overwhelmed Lisicki.

She is moving very well, attacking intelligently, mixing it up, leaping on returns and owning the net. All the good work she has done in doubles this year (with Sania Mirza) and during others has paid off. The 200 points she has already earned should get her back in the top 80 by next week. She has already made the main draw of Roland Garros, which will save her from having to qualify for another Slam, but more importantly the 28-year-old now can see all the results of all of her hard work, and all the massive amount of time that she and her husband Justin have spent on the road trying to get back to respectability in singles.

In the past year, outside of Serena, the talk in the US has been about the late rise of Varvara Lepchenko and the progress of the kids: Stephens, McHale, Keys, Davis etc.

Now the mid-to-late career Mattek is worth talking about just as much and given what a terrific personality she is, that development is very good news for the game. Mattek will face Li Na, who edged Petra Kvitova in two tough sets.

Maria Sharapova and Ana Ivanovic have contested some very good matches over the years but their quarterfinal in Stuttgart was a cracker. Sharapova took the very hard fought and well played match 7-5 4-6 6-4 but Ivanovic did have her chances and with her two quality wins in Fed Cup and two more in Stuttgart she might be considered a top 5 favorite for Roland Garros if she keeps playing this well. Her serve seems to be under control, she is moving very well, cracking her forehand as always and has much more confidence at net. With that said, –and she knows this as she apparently smashed her racket in the locker room after the match — she needs to get wins over the super elite if she is to be a major factor at the Slams again.

For her part, Sharapova won her second straight very long match, the first one coming over Lucie Safarova. The defending champ was up and down, but returned extremely well when she had to, hit some big serves and even showed off some variety, hitting a couple of fine drop volleys, which you almost never see from her. Despite her poor record against Serena Williams the reigning Stuttgart, Rome and Roland Garros champ is the player to beat on red clay until other players show that they can beat her. Sharapova will face Germany