The Picks in Rome: Tuesday, May 16

Alexander Zverev
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Alexander Zverev  over J.J. Wolf
It is pretty clear that the German Zverev can be erratic, and he can also lift up high when he is reacting. He does know  that when he is feeling stellar, then he can not to just mix it, but he is pointed. However, he has not played great this season, but he is gradually playing better, due to his injure.

The former Grand Slam champion Boris Becker says that Zverev has to go back to the basics. That is exact what Becker used to do when he was on court.

“That’s in the past, and 12 months later, the stark reality is brutal. That’s the sport. He is fit again but can’t manage to match the form he had a year ago. There are many reasons for that,” he told Eurosport Germany’s Das Gelbe vom Ball. “What is important, and he is always extremely self-critical, is that he realizes this, that he is honest with himself and doesn’t blame bad luck, bad fortune, wind or too hot a sun – but the fact that he doesn’t play enough. I am sure he will address this in his team and then also train better again. In my opinion, Zverev is not playing tennis properly at the moment.”

Now that is a very controversial, but at least he decided to be honest, even though when he was playing on tour, at times, Becker could dismiss his comments. Zverev must have read it, but beyond that he has to out-hit Wolf, who can play vast  when he is on. The American is pretty intense, and he can also be jolly consistent. On clay, though, it will be a huge challenge to out-hit Zverev. Wolf will make the attempt, but Zverev will bash his forehand and win it in a three, super long, set.

Lorenzo Musetti over Frances Tiafoe
The Italian has always been pretty good on the clay, and over the past two months, he has knocked down some very good competitors. The young Musetti can be hitting it hard, pretty deep, with his forehand and his backhand. When he is feeling good, he can smash the ball. However, he still has a good amount to prove that he will add more on his game.

As he said, when he asked about the multi champion Roger Federer, he watched him a lot.  “”I like everything about him, but if I have to highlight one aspect I would say it’s his style. It’s something unique, the combination of fun and elegance, like the ability to play relaxed and calm.” Musetti said. “I try to be like him, I have less control and sometimes I’m more nervous on the court, so I think I can do better if I compare myself to Federer. But I think there are details where we have similarities, for example in movements, which is something I’ve always tried to do since I was a child.”

The same goes with Tiafoe, who always listens to watch many players. On the hardcourts, he has been dominating at times, but recently, he set back, a little bit. On the clay, he has to rally for a long time, until he will has a good chance to rip it on the ball. He may do it, but here in Rome, the fans will be cheering so hard to watch   Musetti  win the match. He will do it, in three, exhausting, sets.

Paula Badosa over Karolina Muchova
Over the past five weeks, the Spaniard finally started to play much better. She still has a substantial improvement on the court, moving around, and really understand where she has to go.  

Badosa revealed some changes that she is planning on implementing. “I see that the players are starting to get to know me, so we have decided to change some things in my game and make tactical adjustments. It is not easy, in the middle of a game, to change the position of return or hit a parallel in a difficult situation, but I’m on that path so I have to continue on that path,” Badosa  said.

Muchova can be very consistent, and she also likes to wreck her backhand. Her forehand is pretty good, but it can also be short, and her first serve can also be huge, but her second serve can be slow. These two have put together some terrific wins, but on the clay in the slow Rome, Badosa will take it in three, bizarre, sets. 

Veronika Kudermetova over Qinwen Zheng
Last year,  in September in Tokyo, Zheng beat Kudermetova  5-7, 6-3, 7-6(3). It was a super close match, when the young player put together some  incredible rallies. She is very quick, she is also pretty steady, but she still has to hit the ball harder. Plus, the 20-year-old really likes on the hardcourts, but on the clay, she is still figuring it out.

Kudermetova appears to be better week after week. She played a fine tournament in Madrid, reaching the semis, beating a couple very good players. However, in the final, Iga Swiatek  smoked her. Kudermetova is a big hitter, but her forehand can be out of control, but when the Russian is locked in, then she can smack it into the corners. She still needs to be more consistent, and they both do, but on Tuesday, Kudermetova  will win it in three, hardcore, sets.

Jannik Sinner over Francisco Cerundolo
Even on clay, the Italian is much more consistent, he swings hard with his forehand and his backhand, and also, he is better at the net. He is young, and he does get upset, but when he is really thinking about what he is going, then even after he made a lot of errors, Sinner can re-set it. He can be intense, and so is Cerundolo, and he does hit some huge shots, into the corner. This year, he has won a couple, tough, excellent matches, beating Felix Auger-Aliassime and Casper Ruud. However, he also lost pretty early.

The No. 8 Sinner has put together some fine matches on the hardcourts and while he still has to figure out on the clay, he is gradually improving. Sinner will win it in three, grinding, sets.

The Picks in Barcelona, Stuttgart, Munich: Wednesday, April 19

Caroline Garcia
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Barcelona Open Banc Sabadel
Carlos Alcaraz over Roberto Bautista Agut

Last year, the former U.S. Open champion Alcaraz crushed him 6-2 6-0
at Indian Wells.  At that point, the young man was on fire, and the very good veteran had a lousy day. But now they are on clay, as the Spaniards are hoping to be highly consistent, and to pulp there forehand and there backhand. Alcaraz can be a little bit wild, yet he really does not care because he believes that in the next point, he can find it on the lines.

The 35-year-old has had some wonderful years, but Bautista Agut is slipping back, so Alcaraz  will win it in two, long, sets.

Stuttgart
Caroline Garcia over Tatjana Maria
This will be a very tough match as they have played each other twice, on the grass and on the clay, and the Frenchwoman won it two times, yet it was three sets, and it was pretty darn close. Garcia can romp the ball, running side to side, and also, to change into the net. Maria is 35-years-old, but she still is pretty fast when she is running. She did win Bogota, which was surprising, but clearly, she wants to keep playing until she will have to retire. The German will change against Garcia, and she does like to mix it up, but in the third set, the Frenchwomen will hit a few terrific backhands and win it in three sets.

Paula Badosa over Cristina Bucsa
At the Australian Open, the Spaniard Bucsa qualified, and then she upset two respectable, but in the third round, Iga Swiatek crushed her. She must have been happy for a little while, but after that, she must have been totally frustrated. Bucsa  can be somewhat proper and she can also really go for it.

The same thing goes with Badosa, who can be a very fun player, on the court, but she is trying to figure out where she has to go. She has won a decent amount of matches, but not enough. The No. 31 Badosa looked pretty decent in Charleston, and she won three matches, so it appears that she is rising again. On the clay, Badosa will win it in two, lengthy sets.

Munich
Marcos Giron over Alexander Ritschard

They have yet to play each other, and while it is early, they want to get impression. The American Giron has had a so-so year, even though in 2022, he won some fine tournaments. Now, he is struggling, and while he can be proper, but currently, he cannot knock down the very good players — yet. The Swiss Ritschard did have a decent last year, on the hardcourts, but on the clay, he could not move up, hardly at all.  Yes, he can be somewhat consistent, but he cannot hit the ball hard enough. Therefore, Giron will beat him in two decent sets.

Matt’s yesterday picks

Correct: Jelena Ostapenko over Emma Raducanu
Correct: David Goffin over Feliciano Lopez
Correct: Diego Schwartzman over Yibing Wu
Correct: Cameron Norrie over Pavel Kotov
Correct: Denis Shapovalov over Jozef Kovalik

Matt’s current week picks

5 out of 5: 100% correct

TennisReporters.net’s top 32 in 2022: women 15-11

Belinda Bencic
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

No. 15: Beatriz Haddad Maia
The Brazilian finally became more thoughtful, and also, more fierce, on court. In Toronto, she upset the No. 1 Iga Świątek, Belinda Bencic and Karolina Pliskova until she lost in the final against Simon Halep. That was a revenge factor by Halep, as Haddad Maia beat her on the grass in Birmingham. Halep can be damn steady. Haddad Maia can stay in long rallies and she can mix it up as well, especially on the grass,as she won Nottingham. What is pretty odd is that when she first started to play in South America, there were not many grass courts but she learned how to play on all surfaces. Almost a year ago she was ranked No. 115, and now she is in the top 15. That is a huge jump. She does scramble, and she can also try to leap on the lines. Next year though, when she plays the Grand Slams, she has to push herself as she has yet to reach a third round. In 2023, if she wants to be a force at the Slams she needs to reach the second week. Then, if she does, she can really smile.
 
No. 14: Danielle Collins
The American is so intense on court. She aims deep to the backcourt, and she strokes are so effective. When she is locked in, then she can immediately hit winners. Yes, she has won some wonderful matches, but she has lost against the very important players. Sure, she can be uptight in close matches. However, in January at the Australian Open, she beat the No. 1 Świątek in the semis. Unfortunately for Collins, Ash Barty beat her in the final, and then the Aussie retired. Collins does not love the clay, but on hard courts she is pretty good. Next year, the 29-year-old has to be more fit, improve her serves and net game. Without a doubt, she wants to win a Grand Slam, one day, so she has to seize the day.

No. 13: Paula Badosa
In 2021, she came alive, and she won some astonishing matches. But this year, she shuddered, and she did not reach any finals. In fact, she only advanced to semis twice. She could not out-hit the very good opponents. She can run really fast and she can be creative. On the other hand she does not hit the balls deep enough and other people can smash at her. The odd thing was last year, when she won Indian Wells, she downed Coco Gauff, Barbora Krejcikova, Angelique Kerber, Ons Jabeur and Victoria Azarenka. That was her best two weeks ever. Also, she won a bunch of important matches, starting 2022 ranked No. 10. She was on fire and she had so much confidence. Throughout the year she stalled and was totally unfulfilled. Next year, she can try to reset and use more strategy.

No. 12: Belinda Bencic
There have been years that the Swiss was prepared to win a Grand Slam. Before she became hurt, the big hitter won Toronto in 2015, and it appeared that she was going way up the top of the charts. She has had some terrific days, such as when she won the Olympics in 2021, yet she has only won six events, which are good, but not outstanding by any means. This year, she won Charleston, beating Keys, Badosa and Jabeur. That was stellar, and it looked like she would rise again. She has her strong legs, and she slaps the ball, but when she is playing a lot, she folds. She reached the final in Berlin, which was just a big step, but she can lose when it is so close. At the end of the year she lead Switzerland to victory in the ITF BJK Cup Final. Now, next year, if she stays with her strokes, then she can win another couple events. But at the Slams? She has to proof it.

No. 11: Madison Keys
The American hits so many winners crosscourt, down the line and when she returns. She has gone super deep over the years at the Grand Slams, such as getting to the US Open final, and the semis at the Australian Open and Roland Garros. She was right there, but she has had so many injuries, and she had to stop. Yes, she loves to play, but on court now, she does not run fast enough. She has won “just” six titles, and she started in the WTA Tour 10 years ago. She is a pleasant person. In 2023, if she wants to reach the top 5, then she will have find a way to succeed at the net. She has to throw in some slices. To win a huge event, she cannot play the same style over and over.

TennisReporters.net 2021 year-end review: top 10-6, the women

Anett Kontaviet

10. Ons Jabeur
The Tunisian had a terrific year, overall, re-thinking what she should do during the match. She is so fast and can hit it harder, crosscourt and down the line. A couple years ago, she was decent, but not wonderful. Currently now, she can grind it. While she wants to rally for a long time, there are times when she doesn’t go for it enough and look to end points by cracking winners. Next year, if she wants to reach the top 5, she will have to dig in and slam it even more.

9. Iga Swiatek
When she is on and focused, she is thrilled and compelling. Other times, when she isn’t playing well, she can be ticked off. When she won Roland Garros last year, she was phenomenal, sliding on the clay, charging in and she pounded it. She is young, and she can be impatient, so she must be more consistent. In 2022, if she wants to go higher, it would be nice to see her improve her serve and her forehand.

8. Paula Badosa
The New York-native Spaniard jumped up the rankings by gradually pushing herself. She is working with the coach, Jorge García, and apparently, he found a solution this year. Badosa is willing to mix it up, with her slice, spin and flat shots. Using that kind of variety can be confusing, but it is possible. She had beaten a number of top-level players, winning Indian Wells. So now, next year, she will add with more strokes. Just push even harder.

7. Anett Kontaveit
The Estonian is now at her career high. She started this year at No. 23, dropped down to 31 in May and then she rapidly bolted up. Somehow, someway she won four smaller tournament titles, but important ones. At the WTA Final, she reached the final, and while she lost, she beat a series of solid players. She is intelligent, quick and can change direction. Now she is much smarter on the court. “I think I’m excited for the next season. Really want to keep this momentum up, just keep improving on my game,” she said. She will charge once again.

6. Maria Sakkari
The Greek is another one who rolled up, being incredible consistent, and she was very rugged. She scrambles and jumps up in the air while crushing the ball and deep. After the end of the season, she wrote, “Before this year, I would say that sometimes I was a little too hard and negative on myself. This season, with the help of surrounding myself with the right people, I’ve concentrated on making my mindset much more positive by manifesting kinder thoughts. I would definitely say that being nice to yourself is always a good idea.” It must be. Next year, then, she won’t be negative for the rest of the year. She hopes.

Paula Badosa and Cameron Norrie win Indian Wells

Paula Badosa

At the start of the tournament, at Indian Wells, who would have thought that Paula Badosa and Cameron Norrie would win the event? It was almost impossible. Neither of them had won a big tournament, and they were not in the top 25. Watching them, they looked pretty good, but not spectacular.

Then in the desert, it changed. Before that, they could be very effective, or they could space out and lose.

The Spaniard Badosa really worked each day, practicing, and adding to her game. In the final, she edged Vika Azarenka 7-6 in the third set. It took over three hours, but she was still so composed.

“I’ve learned this week is that nothing is impossible. If you fight, if you work, after all these years, you can achieve anything. And to dream,” Badosa said. “Sometimes you have tough moments. In my case I have been through tough moments. I never stopped dreaming. That’s what kept me working hard and believing until the last moment.”

She can leap side to side, she can create points and decide to push close to the lines, and she can be forceful. Badosa decided that she did not want to let down, but to think about each second. Even if she missed an easy shot, on the next point, she can turn it around. She is not perfect, but she is booming.

“This year I had, of course, a roller-coaster year, disappointments and everything. But after all I’ve been through in my life, it wasn’t disappointment. That’s the good part,” she said. “When you suffer a lot, when you’re young, when you have a little bit of disappointment, you don’t feel it like that. So that’s the good part of what happened this year. Of course, I have bad moments. But compared to the things I’ve been through, it’s nothing. Of course, every morning I wake up, and my dream is to win a tournament like this or to win a Grand Slam. That keeps me motivated to keep working and to always believe.”

The 26-year Norrie is not too old, or too young. He is in the middle of the road. But he put his foot on the gas, and he won it, hands down. At Indian Wells, he won six matches, with four three-setters. In the third set, he was bolted. In the final, he smashed Nicola Basilashvili when he was the most challenged.

Three weeks ago, he reached the final in San Diego, beating Daniel Evans, Denis Shapovalov and Andrey Rublev before falling to Casper Ruud. All good players, and Norrie thought he was so consistent.

Last year, he was OK, but he could not beat many of the top players. However, he continued to work a lot and this season, he has won 47 wins, on the hardcourts, on the clay and the grass. He knows that it took him a few more years, because before he started at the ATP, he went to college, at  Texas Christian University. Then in 2016, it was time to play against all the big boys.

But to win at Indian Weeks, he was impressive.

“It’s a little bit surprising. Starting the tournament, you’re a little bit nervous, you’re not really sure, not used to the conditions,” Norrie said. “You’re not feeling good. I had a couple of tough matches early on, especially against Bautista. I think that was my toughest match. Physically that match was rough.

“It just shows if you stick around in these big events, obviously it was pretty miraculous that all the top guys lost, and when I looked at the four semifinalists, Hmm, it’s a good opportunity here. Didn’t really want to get too far ahead of myself.

“In the past, a little bit with my experience, being on the tour four years now, I was very calm in the bigger moments and I played unbelievable, my best tennis, against Diego [Schwartzman] and Grigor [Dimitrov] in the quarters and semis. Those were huge matches for me.”

US Open preview: Is this Pliskova’s opportunity?

Almost everyone wants to read about Novak Djokovic, who has a chance to win four Grand Slams this year. He is so consistent, and rarely strings together many errors. Once in a while, he does, but he is powerful, and he has a wide-ranging variety. He can smash his serves, he can return from the baseline and at the net. He is the top dog.

However, Djokovic is not the only person in New York. There are more than a few who want to reach the second week, or even further, such as Kei Nishikori, Alex de Minaur, Matteo Berrettini, Jenson Brooksby, Jannik Sinner, Denis Shapovalov and Reilly Opelka. But, the big challenge could be in the semis when Djokovic has to face Alexander Zverev. The German is flying high, he finally likes to be move and to smash it down the lines. He can go cross-court, and he can shatter it into the middle which can be very deep. He has finally matured a good amount. He hasn’t won a Grand Slam yet, but he was very close in the US Open last year. So in the fifth set, he can lock it in and then he can snag it, finally.

The No. 1 Ash Barty has only won ‘just’ two Grand Slams. This year, the Aussie has played fantastic, with her variety from her forehand and her backhand to take Wimbledon. It is hard to know where she is going, which is why she has beaten lots of excellent players. But can she win another Slam, this time in Flushing Meadows? She has grown a lot, and she is more intelligent. Without a doubt, she can push down almost everyone.

But, there are a number of players who think that when they are playing excellent, they have a shot to upset Barty.

In the first and second quarters, it could be Karolina Muchova, Jennifer Brady, Belinda Bencic, Jessica Pegula, Iga Swiatek, Paula Badosa, Maria Sakkari and Bianca Andreescu.

Plus, Karolina Pliskova wants to try to win the US Open for the first time. She has reached the final once, but could not pull it off. It’s all about her will. Pliskova thought it about it and she responded, “The next Grand Slam, I’m going to try to play like I was playing here from the first round to the last one.”

Hopefully, not early. Later.