The Picks in Madrid: Friday, April 28

Carlos Alcaraz over Emil Ruusuvuori
The Finn has had a respectable year, with a few impressive wins, but he has yet to reach into the top 30, and maybe he will, eventually, but he has to change his strokes, here and there. At least Ruusuvuori played pretty well in Miami, beating Botic van de Zandschulp, and in Barcelona, he took down  Frances Tiafoe . Yet how will he stun Alcaraz, as the Spaniard just won Barcelona? He has only lost two matches this year, and he has been winning a lot of some very good players. He is almost jolly aggressive, and he can chuck it in with variety. Maybe he is mentally tired, but he is a teenager, so he will be fresh. Alcaraz will win it in three, engaging sets.
   
Andrey Rublev over Stan Wawrinka
The three-time Grand Slam champion is aging, and he is not as fast as he was, but on clay, he can really control him. Wawrinka has an amazing backhand, with a tremendous rotation, and also, he can nail it crosscourt, or down the line. When he is on, he can be great to watch him. However, Rublev is now more settled, on the court. He can try to pin him down, and swing so hard with his stout forehand and his backhand. Yes, Rublev still isn’t great enough on clay, but year after year, he can understand what he has to do. There for, Rublev will clip Wawrinka in the third set to win it, with some savage shots.

Martina Trevisan over Eugenie Bouchard
The Canadian Bouchard looked terrific years ago, almost 10 years ago in 2014 , when she reached the semis at the Aussie Open, then in the final at Wimbledon, and then, in the semis again at the US Open. She was trucking along, as her forehand and her backhand were huge. But then next year, she started to disappear, and she did get hurt, a bit, but then she did not know why she couldn’t hit the balls in the lines. Then she was essentially gone.  Bouchard stopped playing, and she also decided to go on TV. She is actually pretty decent. And then, she started playing again, so now she is trying to go upwards.

Someone can write a book, about why she was so good, and also, barely mediocre. The good thing was in Madrid, she qualified, and now she was to face Trevisan, who really likes playing on clay. Yes, the No. 20 has not had a very good year, but the Italian can spin her shots, and she can also mix it up. Even though Bouchard wants to go fast, and she also likes to play on the dirt, but it will take her a few months before she can really focus.  As a result, Trevisan will win it in three, bizarre sets.

Vika Azarenka over Alycia Parks
The two-time Grand Slam champ Azarenka is addicted on the hardcourts, but in Europe, over the years, she can be wild on the clay. She is used to it, but perhaps she has not won more Slams is because when she is on court, she can hit some sole points, way out. Azarenka does think about her life, and that is terrific, yet the 33-year-old won’t really change at the net, and also, her return, too. However, she can be intense, as does the American Parks, who is ready to crush the ball. On the hardcourt, she can move forward, and she can bend down, and shoot it up.  But she is not there, yet, on the lurking clay. Azarenka will win it, in two honestly, decent sets.

Matt’s yesterday picks

Correct: Dominic Thiem over Kyle Edmund
Correct: Aryna Sabalenka over Sorana Cirstea
Elina Svitolina over Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Matt’s picks this week

2 out of 3: 66.7% correct

Sebastian Korda wins: ‘Having a new motto of, positive energy’

Sebastian Korda
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Sebastian Korda was cruising and looked like he was about to win. He was ahead in the fifth-set tiebreak versus Hubert Hurkacz and he was up 7-3. But then he began nervous, and he made four errors in a row. He could have lost it right there. But all of a sudden, he locked in again, and knew that he could slam the ball at the right time. He did, and he won it, 3-6, 6-3, 6-2, 1-6, 7-6(7). He was finally overjoyed.

“Maybe nerves got a little bit to me,” Korda said. “He stopped missing a little bit more. Came closer to the line. And I made some easy mistakes, and he took advantage of that.”

But not for long. Over the past five years, the American could look pretty good, but then he collapsed a lot. His father, Petr, won the 1998 Australian Open, and he could run all day. Plus, he could move forward, even into the net. But Sebastian needs more time. His forehand and backhand are powerful, but his serve, his return and net game, aren’t quite good enough. But he worked hard, mentally, and now, he is much more mature.

“It was difficult but I’m very happy with the way I kind of just stayed down, kept going through it,” he said. “Throughout this whole year, I haven’t had one negative thought, whether it’s waiting for transportation to go to the courts, whether it’s eating lunch, whether it’s doing anything. That’s one of the biggest things is just having a new motto of, positive energy is more positive than negative energy. As soon as you get something negative, it can take you the opposite direction. Anything that happens, just thinking in the most positive possible way, just going forward.”

Now he is in the quarters at a Grand Slam for the first time. Obviously, he is confident. But in the second weeks of the Slams, you have to face the talented players. He realizes he would back off when the match is tight.

“I think I’ve had a tough match with Rafa [Nadal], serving for it a couple times. Match point with [Novak] Djokovic. I think that really helped me, especially in the last match with Medvedev, closing out that tiebreaker,” Korda said. “Then today as well. I think all those little moments that I’ve gone through, learning from them, staying patient, staying positive, going through the process I think have really helped me going forward.”

Korda will play Karen Khachanov, a player who showed a lot of potential a few years ago. The last time they played the Russian beat Korda 10-8 in the fifth set at Wimbledon. This will be a tossup.

How about Stefanos Tsitsipas, who advanced after he survived Jannik Sinner 6-4, 6-4, 3-6, 4-6, 6-3. He could have lost, but he kept on trunking. He was composed.

It was a bit of a stunner when Jiri Lehecka upset Felix Auger-Aliassime in four sets. Apparently, Lehecka is super steady, and he will snap the ball when he had to.

Jelena Ostapenko won 2018 Roland Garros and then she almost disappeared. She is a huge server, from both sides, and she goes for it immediately. But she can hit it way too long. Time and time again.

She just beat Coco Gauff and, as she said, she finally has became more thoughtful, on the court.

“My life changed a lot [after winning Roland Garros], so I needed a few years to really get used to what happened because I was really young,” Ostapenko said. “I was 19 and then turned 20. I always knew and believed in my game. If I play well, I can beat almost anyone. I was trying to work more on my consistency, especially in the preseason. Yeah, just to step on the court and play my game.”

In the quarters, Ostapenko will play Wimbledon champ Elena Rybakina, who is 2-0 over the Latvian. Ostapenko is the favorite, but not by much.

Once again, Jessica Pegula won a fine match, advancing over Barbora Krejcikova. She made few errors, and she also nailed her forehand and backhand. She has a real chance to reach into the semis for the first time at the Slams.

“It feels like there’s still a long ways to go, to be honest,” Pegula said. “I look at the draw you have Rybakina who won Wimbledon last year, you have Vika [Azarenka] who does really well here, Caroline [Garcia] won the [ATP] championships. It doesn’t really feel like I’m the highest left, even though I guess that’s a cool stat.”

She will face against Azarenka, who won this tournament twice but that is a long time ago. They have met four times and have split. Azarenka is a huge hitter from both sides, but her serves can be spotty. Still, she is very confident.

“I’m so happy I was able to manage it. At the beginning of the year there were a couple of very close matches that didn’t turn my way, so I’m very happy that I took my chances,” Azarenka said.

Friday predictions at US Open

Matteo Berrittini
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Matteo Berrettini  vs Andy Murray
Just before he got hurt, the Italian was feeling good, not only being very consistent snd controlled. He has yet to win a Slam, but he has gone deep, especially at the 2021 Wimbledon, when he  reached the final, and he lost to No. 1 Novak Djokovic in four sets. But he kept going, jumping in and throwing it hard. This year, he reached the semis at the Australian Open, and he won Queen’s. But guess what? In Stuttgart, Berrettini played against the three-time champion, Murray, and he beat him in three difficult sets. This time, at the U.S. Open, things can change. The Scotl looked very good in the first two matches, as he hit some wonderful strokes, especially with his first serve and his wide-eyed return. If it goes into the fifth set, then Berrettini will tire him, but it doesn’t, then Murray can decide how to fool him. That is a toss-up, but in the end, Murray will win.

Nick Kyrgios vs J.J. Wolf
The so-called ‘new’ American, Wolf, is already smiling on the courts, sprinting and bashing his forehand. This year, he played a number of challengers, and he won a lot, but the 23-year-old knew that he needed to add to his shots. At least this week, he threw in some wonderful strokes. However, Kyrgios is playing so well, almost every match, with his mind-blowing serves, his muscular forehand, and also, his with his fine net play. Of course he can yell all day, but other than that, on court, he finally learned to be more efficient. There will be some crazy rallies, but Kyrgios will win in three sets.  

Jessica Pegula vs Yue Yuan
We talked it before, but if Pegula can reach the second week, then she will finally have a terrific change to win the US Open. For so many years, she was pretty consistent, but she rarely tried to go for it, deep and close to the corners. She finally decided that if she can get into the top 20, then the world would know who she is. But even further, Pegula is ranked No. 7, which is keen. However, she has yet to reach the fourth round at Flushing Meadows, so this time, she has to knock it up.
Yuan has come out of nowhere in singles and currently she is ranked No. 142. Maybe she started to work hard with a couple of coaches, so she is now more mature. Regardless, Pegula will be patient, and when she has a chance, she can crack her shots. She will win in two sets.

Vika Azarenka vs Petra Martin
The Belarussian has won two Grand Slams. Years ago, she was one of the most aggressive strokers with her forehand and her backhand. However, her serve has been OK, but not great, and at the net, she stumbles. But the outgoing Azarenka can really return, in the lines. She would scream ‘C’MON.’ Very loud She has a child, and she has said that she is totally happy. We are sure that she is, but on court early in her matches, she can look terrific, but then, not so much. If she can manage to win fast, then she will continue to battle. However, Croatian Martin has been around for a long time. Years ago, she hit the top 15, and at the US Open, she reached the fourth round a few times. Yet she never was able to go super far. She upset Paula Badosa this week, so the 31-years-old must have been solid. Can she poke around against Azarenka? Maybe, for an hour or so, early, but  Azarenka will be intense and she will win it in two sets.

Rising Borna Coric outlasts Shapovalov

The young 21-year-old Borna Coric has played so much better in the past month. Last year, he was all over the place, but now, he doesn’t get so angry and throw his rackets. No, when it is in to it, he just walks over and he refocuses.

On Tuesday, he edged Denis Shapovalov, 7-6 4-6 6-4. The Canadian was very enthusiastic, but he also can be pretty pissed off when he misses a shot or two. Coric has changed a few things, but really, he is just so steady and acurrate. For sure, he needs to come into the net a little bit more, but he can run forever…

 Alexander Zverev looked terrific against Nick Kyrgios and he won it 6-4 6-4. The tall Zverev is finally  becoming more happy, consistent, and he just rips the ball from both wings. He won Rome and Canada last year so clearly, when he is feeling good, he can beat anyone. I mean, everyone. But it is fairly early so if he wants to win Miami, he needs to breath and be more smart.
Kyrgios is hurt again. He has been hurt all the time this season, and a good amount last year, too. He is a damn good player when he feels healthy, but when he is not, he struggles. Who knows when he will play again…

The American Frances Tiafoe outlasted Tomas Berdych on Tuesday, but then he had to play again and he lost against Kevin Anderson. Tiafoe has had a terrific six weeks, and hopefully, he will continue to practice. We will see much more in the coming months…

Here comes a wild match tonight: Milos Raonic vs. Juan Martin del Potro. Raonic looks healthy, and JMDP is on fire and I mean he is totally smoking. Del Potro won Indian Wells, and he recently said that he is pretty tired, but he is locked in and he is not missing the tiny balls. Still, Raonic  wants to take him out, badly. He is going to have to return extremely well or he will lose in straight sets…
 
Talk about Vika Azarenka who is launching. She overcame  Katarina Pliskova 7-5 6-3. Her serve has improved — a little — her backhand can go anywhere she goes, and she is super optimistic at the net. She can win the title again, but she has to dig deep for hours to do it…

She will face Sloane Stephens in the semis on Thursday. Just like Azarenka, she is hopeful and self-assured. She is super steady,  she can really run and mix it up, which is why she destroyed Angie Kerber. However, against Azarenka, she has to attack early and keep it deep, or she will do down. Or perhaps Stephens can were her down in the third set. Perhaps.  

Federer lost, but you cannot win every time

Over the years, there are lost moments when the players go down hard. On Saturday in Miami, the great Roger Federer lost against Thanasi Kokkinakis 3-6 6-3 7-6(4) in a dramatic three-setter.

The Swiss has won so many times against everyone, but this time, he was out of bounds. On the past 14 months, Federer has been spectacular, but you cannot win every week. That is impossible. So now, he has decided that he will not play on clay once again, meaning that Federer won’t return on court on the grass in mid June. That is almost 3 months when he won’t be there, when the fans will be a little upset —or really upset — but perhaps they can watch some other people play. Yes, everyone knows that Federer has so much variety, and intelligence, but that doesn’t mean he is the only talent on tour with some great players. So, if you have an opportunity, watch pro tennis on TV, on the internet, or at the tournament. That would be nice.

You have to like Kokkinakis, the Aussie, who stunned Federer. Yes, Federer did not play great, but so what? The very young Kokkinakis nearly retired, but he did not, he recovered. He practices all the time. So, when he went on court, he was ready for battle. He served huge, returned pretty welland smoked his forehand. If he stays healthy, he will be a force the rest of this year.

No. 1 Simons Halep went down to Aga Radwanska. Stunned? I am not. The Pole is a very, very fine player when she is healthy and motivated. She has been on tour for more than a decade. She has come close to winning a major, but she hesitated too often. Her forehand is pretty mediocre. Still, maybe she can change it in the next couple of years, because if she cannot, then the former No. 2 Aga will not grab a Grand Slam. 

But, in Florida, she can make some noise, if she manages to knock out Vika Azarenka on Monday, who is rising fast. Radwanska has to push her back and run down shots because when Azarenka is on top of the ball, she can totally rip it, down the line and cross court. Another note: If Azarenka can play every month this season, she will go right back into the top 5. 

So what about Halep? She is a true grinder, and never gives up, which is good. But mentally, she gets upset and confused. Being No. 1 is terrific, but at this point, she has to find a way to win a Grand Slam. Somehow. However, she does love clay, so maybe she can take a deep breath and get on the Roland Garros winner’s stand. 

Here’s a fantastic match on Monday: Sloane Stephens against Garbine Muguruza. Both of them has won Slams, both of them love rallies. Ashleigh Barty is rising all the time. I bet she will crack the top 10 soon. … Finally, the frequency injured Nick Kyrgios came back. He will face Fabio Fognini and the Italian wants to yank him around. … So you like long matches? If you do, Jack Sock will face Borna Coric. Sock now comes into the net quite a bit, which can be good, but he has to put it away because Coric is getting better all the time.

Stephens knocks down Azarenka, rising again?

INDIAN WELLS – American Sloane Stephens finally looked very good, turning around a nasty stretch of losses following her 2017 US Open victory. Over the past six months, she was out of it, physically and mentally. But finally, her body feels OK, and a little bit more confident. She beat Vika Azarenka 6-1, 7-5, which is very good, given that Belarusian had knocked Stephens out of the Aussie Open three times without dropping a set. But this time, Stephens was not only consistent, but lethal.

She says that this year, she won’t push herself because in 2016, she became seriously injured and she was out for almost an entire year.  Stephens doesn’t want to do that again.

“I’m going to listen to my body and make sure that I can do everything possible not to get injured again and make sure that I take care of myself mentally and physically the best way I know how,” she said. “Whatever schedule I play is what I play.

Obviously nothing’s ever set in stone. You can say, ‘Oh, I want to play here,’ and then not get enough matches and you want to play a different tournament. It’s kind of up in the air. My main priority is just making sure that I’m good and just staying happy.”

The two-time major champ Angie Kerber wore down Ekaterina Makarova, and on Monday, she will face defending champ Elena Vesnina. Kerber is the fav, but the Russian Vesnina has improved a lot in the past two years. … The 22-year-old Maria Sakkari upset Coco Vandeweghe, a great win by Greek, but a sloppy day by the American…
Karolina Pliskova dug deep to win in three sets over Shuai Zhang, who was seeded 32. The Czech stood strong, even though they went into a brutal third set. Can she go deep? Impossible to know with her, but if she does, watch out. …  20-year-old Jelena Ostapenko is skidding, losing against to the vet Petra Martic is straight sets. Maybe the Roland Garros champion need to relax once in a while.

The Men
Novak Djokovic showed up and did little more than that. He walked on the court against Taro Daniel and made so many errors, try 62. He lost and as he says he is mentally all over the place. However, he just started playing again, so give him some time, like a few more months. Then we will know how good he can really be again. … Gael Monfils took down John Isner. When the Frenchman is playing well, the fans will love watching him play. Isner has only won one match this year and seven losses and lost his confidence. … Brit Kyle Edmund returned after five weeks off due to injury, and he lost Dudi Sela. Still, Edmund should continue to improve. … Another difficult turn of events when Kei Nishikori pulled out. He is hurt all time. “I’m still not strong enough to go play a match. I’m very sorry as I love this tournament,” he said. Will he try to play Miami? Maybe not.

Serena: ‘I just felt like my story wasn’t over’

March 08, 2018: Serena Williams (USA) hits a backhand in her match against Zarina Diyas (KAZ) at the BNP Paribas Open played at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, California. ©Mal Taam/TennisClix/CSM

INDIAN WELLS – It felt like forever that Serena Williams couldn’t play last year when she stopped because she was going to have a child. She did, her first baby, in September,  and she was having a great time being a first-time mother.

When it was time, she started to practice again, but in January, she knew that her legs wasn’t ready to compete, so she didn’t play at the Australian Open. So she waited and as she said, she practiced all the time. “The timing was so hard, but I wanted to get back,” she said.

On Thursday night she beat Zarina Diyas 7-5, 6-3.  It has been 14 months, the last time that she has played on court. She looked pretty good, moving fairly well, her serve was strong and she hustled. As she said,  she is trying to be very calm and not push herself.  When she was not playing last year, she actually watched a ton of matches on TV.

“I was really surprised, and I watched it a lot, the women and the men, but when I started practicing a lot, I stopped,” Serena said. “The minute I realized that I was going to take some time off, I just wanted to stay fit and stay ready the best I could. It just wasn’t my time to retire yet, even though it would have been a great way to retire. I just felt like my story wasn’t over. … I am going to go with the flow.”

Azarenka emerges
Vika Azarenka finally played again at Indian Wells. The former two-time champion is living in Los Angeles; she has a new child, and with that, she feels pretty happy. She hadn’t played inthe past eight months, which was a pretty long time. Off court, she is still battling with her ex-boyfriend, and the lawyers, so she may not be able to leave the U.S. until they can settle it. When will that  happen? It is very hard to say. At least she is playing Indian Wells, and then she will play Miami, and very likely, at Charleston.

On Thursday night,  Azarenka looked very decent, beating Heather Watson  6-4, 6-2. The 28-year-old wants to be there as much as she can, but as she said, there are days when she cannot play, having to do with her body and other things. Really important things. 

“Unfortunately, this situation is a little bit out of my control, so I have to go with the flow and continue to be positive, continue to be optimistic and continue to just fight, because that’s what I’m best at — fighting,” Azarenka said. “One day, I’ll write a book about this because it’s Hollywood-worthy for sure. It truly means the world to me just to be here, and to play, and enjoy myself and do what I love to do.”

The men
The top men players aren’t playing yet, but it will happen very soon. However, there are a number of young competitors who are here, like Taylor Fritz, who overcame Reilly Opelka 4-6, 7-6(6), 6-4. He thought he was going to lose, but he hung in there. But, he wasn’t sure why.

“I’m pretty lucky,” said Fritz. “I could have lost the first set 6-0. He almost broke me in the first three games I served. There wasn’t much I could do. I felt I was hitting my spots, but he was lasering returns back. I told myself, ‘Just play your game. If he keeps doing this, it’s too good. He’ll beat anybody playing like that.’ I was down a set and a match point in the second-set tiebreaker and I honestly didn’t think I was doing anything wrong. When somebody is playing like that, you just have to weather the storm … When someone like [Opelka] is on, someone who plays a big game, you just have to weather the storm as best as you can.” And he did, and then he won.

The 20-year-old from nearby San Diego is picking up his game. He won Newport Beach (an ATP Challenger Tour event), he reached the quarters at Delray Beach, upsetting Sam Querrey before he lost against Denis Shapovalov. Last week, he reached the semis at the Oracle Challenge Series in Indian Wells. Now he is ranked No 74. He believes that he is getting better all the time, as he can really listen when he is practicing with the coaches, Paul Annacona.  

When Fritz is playing, he says he can adapt his different styles. “Now, when I play somebody, if they hear that [I made that change], I can use reverse psychology and just go down the line on every one. It is mind games,” said Fritz. Fritz will face another very good young player, Andrey Rublev, on Saturday. 

Short shots
The Canadian Shapovalov won here and he will face Pablo Cuevas, which should be some long, tough rallies. … Borna Coric blew out Donald Young, which is a fine by Coric, but the American is way down mentally. Maybe he should take a break. He has been playing for a decade, all the time, and his body is breaking down. …Ryan Harrison went down, losing to Federico Delbonis 7-5 in the third. So close, but so far. … Props to Jared Donaldson, who overcame Evan King 6-4 in the third.

Throw in some other victories by the WTA players like: the vet Sorana Cirstea upseting Monica Niculescu, and it looks like Cirstea is getting quicker. … I keep thinking that the former No. 2 Vera Zvonareva was ready to rise, but Natalia Vikhlyantseva tooled her. Who knows why by the Russian decided to return. Ekaterina Makarova also won, and the former top-10-er will be back in the top 20 this season. She hopes. … Three good wins by the Americans such as the 18-year-old Catherine Bellis, who is ranked No. 45, as well as Jennifer Brady and Danielle Collins.

Indian Wells coming: Svitolina, Serena, Vika, Caro

Notes on A Draw Sheet, March 4, 2018

THE WOMEN
It was good to see Elina Svitolina win the title at Dubai, and as she says, she never gives up. Which is more or less true. But, at the Slams, she can mentally back off. Still, she is only 23 years old, so in the next decade, she can figure out and to go the right places. And nail it. 
In Dubai, she jumped on the resurgent Angie Kerber, and in the final, she beat the good, young player Daria Kasatkina. At Indian Wells, Svitolina will be one of the favorites, but the field is very close, as almost the entire top 10 can beat each other. 
It looks like Serena Williams will walk on the court and play again. It’s very hard to gage how her difficult childbirth and the demands of motherhood are still affecting her. Let’s hop she is ready to compete and win match after match, tournament after tournament. My guess is it will take her a few months to get comfortable. One way or another, it should be a lot of fun …

Vika Azarenka will return at IW, after not playing this year because she is battling with her ex-husband in a custody battle over her young child. Before she stopped playing, Azarenka looked pretty darn good. I would assume that she is very healthy, and she would love to win another major, but the same thing goes here: She needs sometime to understand how she is striking the ball, day after day…

The No. 1 Simona Halep is hurt again, but she always tries to play, pain or nothing at all. She is a true grinder…

The No. 2 Caroline Wozniacki finally won a Grand Slam at the Aussie Open. It took her so long to finally grab it, but now she has and I would think that this year — as she loves to play — she will have a chance to win another major, specifically at the US Open, because she gets frustrated on clay and on grass…

The former two-time champion Petra Kvitova look pretty darn good, winning Doha. She is another one who wants to win so badly she can taste it. She likes fast hard court, but if it is very windy, she can get frustrated. Kvitova does like Indian Wells, the weather, almost everything, so if she is feeling it, she could go very deep, and win it. That would be huge, mentally.
 
THE MEN
Once again, Juan Martin del Potro is on fire, which is terrific, because when he is healthy, he can knock down anyone. How about this: in Acapulco, he beat the vet Mischa Zverev, the grinder David Ferrer, the flashy Dominic Thiem and the young brother, the No. 5 Alexander Zverev. In the final, he knocked out the 2017 Us Open finalist Kevin Anderson 6-4, 6-4. Very good stuff.

It is all about Delpo’s health. When his arms start to break down, then he leaves and he cannot play. But when it isn’t so bad, he can hit his two-hander, rather than just his one-hander, which he can only slice. That is why, among other things, that he could not beat the best players at the Grand Slams and come up short in the past eight years. He can hang in there in two out of three, but in the Slams, it’s three out of five. Towards the end, in the second week, he gets tired and he cannot find the lines. He looked very good this past week, with his huge serve, his massive forehand, his decent return and improved net game. He is a darn good player.
Even though he lost, the same goes with Anderson. Yes, he isn’t that fast because he is very tall, but he really hustles and whenever he gets a chance, he can jump on it. Both of them will be extremely confident heading into IW next week.

The Pick: VENUS WILLIAMS VS. VICTORIA AZARENKA, QATAR OPEN, FEB 27

venus_mt_uso_082813

 

Williams is 4-0 versus Azarenka, which is pretty surprising. Four years ago, Williams discovered that she was ill and it was very difficult for her to play at all. During the last year overall, she looks a lot better, which is why the 34-year-old is about to crack the top 10 very soon.

The former seven-time Grand Slam may never be able to win a major again, but playing one week vs. two weeks, she does have a chance. Yes, she isn’t dominating her opponents and plays for hours upon hours, but she is very smart and guile.

But why has she been able to take down the two-time Slam champ Azarenka in all four matches? Well, when she faced off the first time was in 2008, when Venus had just won her last Wimbledon and was cracking the ball. A couple months later, she played the baby at the Olympics in Beijing in the fourth round and she won easily. In 2010, Azarenka was a bit more mature and they played at 2010 Dubai in the final, and Williams won 6-3 7-5, which was pretty close.

By 2013, Azarenka was flying high, winning the Australian Open and reaching No. 1. However, they played each other in Tokyo in October and Venus whipped her 6-2 6-4. Vika looked very tired and slow.

Last summer at the 2014 Stanford, they played in the second round. As Azarenka admitted, she was pretty depressed last year and was out of shape. Venus was more happy and much more consistent and won 6-4 7-6.

So what about this time in Qatar? Azarenka was terrific in beating Caro Wozniacki, while Venus overcame Aga Radwanska in a fine win.

The 25-year-old Azarenka really wants to beat the best again. She is not perfect by any means, but her forehand has been very solid and her rushing to the net is getting better and better.

The problem there is that her serves have been so-so at best. If she is going to push her second serves down the middle and hope that Venus isn’t going to attack, she is going to go down pretty quickly.

Venus knows how to punish the balls down on the lines, rushing to the net when she knows that the Belarussian has a hard time passing with her forehands (Vika’s backhand is better), and she can confuse her by mixing up her first serves. Plus, Venus can still nail her first serves and pocket her aces.

However, Azarenka wants this win more than Venus does. As long as she can stroke the balls deep and go at Venus’ problematic forehand, she will be OK. However, Vika cannot be too nervous because if she is, Venus will win again. Even if she is shaky, Williams can take a deep breath and move ahead.

It’s a toss up, but Azarenka will out-stroke Williams at the end, winning in three sets.

 

THE PICK: ROGER FEDERER VS. RICHARD GASQUET AT DUBAI, FEB 26

Federer IW 11 MALT5875

The great Federer took off when he bested Fernando Verdasco 6-4 6-3 in Dubai. For a while, the Spaniard was on top of the ball, but then he went quickly and quietly. Federer dominated the net, and he was crushing his one-handed backhand.

Federer is very confident against Gasquet … and who wouldn’t be when you owne a 13-2 head to head. The last time they played each other, Gasquet was a bit hurt and Roger smoked him at the Davis Cup final, 6-4, 6-2, 6-2. The Swiss said he felt a lot of pressure in France, but he concentrated and took over with his fabulous forehand.

Can Federer do it again easily? Perhaps, as he feels relaxed and is mixing up his attack. Gasquet has a tremendous amount of strokes, his serve and his net. However, he is erratic, which is why Federer has he won 17 Slams and the Frenchman has none. At times, Gasquet can play wonderfully, but he isn’t quite right yet and Federer will win in straights.

NOTES

There are three ATP tournaments this week: Dubai, Acapulco and Buenos Aires. All the three tournaments look good, but it is not easy to give a huge amount of cash to the top players when they put up $1.5 million-plus. However, this week has a been pretty good overall. Federer, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray in Dubai, among others. Rafa Nadal, Tommy Robredo and Pablo Cuevas are in Buenos Aires, and Kei Nishikori, David Ferrer and Grigor Dimitrov. That’s impressive…

Here are two shockers in Dubai today: Marsel Ilhan of Turkey beat Feliciano Lopez 3-6 7-5 6-3, and the 18 year old Borna Coric beat Marcos Baghdatis 6-4 3-6 6-6 (retired). Apparently, Baghdatis was legitimately hurt.

In Acapulco, Ryan Harrison stunned Dimitrov 7-5 4-6 6-0. It was the American’s first top 10 ever. He is only 22 years old, but he has been around since 17 or so. He is smart and strong, but he has been up and down during the past two years or so. He is currently No. 169 and will move up to at least the top 140 or better. He cracked the top 50 in 2012 and he looked like he was going to charge into the top 20. But while his first serve is excellent and untouchable, he wasn’t able to hit his strokes stronger enough and with depth. At least against Dimitrov, he looked very good overall. He has a long way to go, but he was extremely satisfied…

By the way, Harrison beat Donald Young 4-6 6-2 4-2 in the first round as he retired. Young has been named to the Davis Cup next week against Britain. He must have been hurt but hopefully he will be fine after a few days…

Remember the former top 10 Nicolas Almagro? He is healthy and bested Pablo Andujar 6-3 3-6 6-2 in Buenos Aires. He will be heard from again…

Back in Acapulco on the WTA,     Magdalena Rybarikova beat the Aussie Ajla Tomljanovic 6-3 6-4 and then Johanna took out Sloane Stephens 6-3 6-2. Stephens has a long way to go. She hasn’t looked right since last July…

At the Qatar Open, Caroline Wozniacki beat Alexandra Dulgheru 6-1 3-0 (retired), and Victoria Azarenka defeated Elina Svitolina 6-3 6-7(4) 6-1. Guess who plays against each other?  That is ‘Caro’ and ‘Vika’ who last played in the Australian Open second round, when Azarenka played extremely well and won in straight sets. Vika is not quite there yet – especially on her serves – but she is getting better and better. However, the No. 5 Caro wants her revenge here and should she be able to out-stroke her and win in three sets. However, she has to swing her forehands much more powerfully, like she did the last half of 2014…

Here were two significant wins in Doha: Carla Suarez beat Karolina Pliskova 7-6(2) 6-4 as the Czech has played too many matches this year, but still that was a very good win by the Spaniard; Lucie Safarova upset the Russian Ekaterina Makarova 6-2 6-7(5) 6-3. Safarova is coming on stronger and stronger.