Australian Open predictions: women

Caroline Wozniacki

Who will reach the quarterfinals next week? There are some very close choices, and also, easy picks. Here it goes…

No. 1 Ash Barty is under a lot of pressure in Australia. She need three sets to oust Lesia Tsurenko in the opening round. She can be calm though, and it is likely that she will out-steady Petra Martic in the fourth round. She is so thoughtful and concentrates. That’s why she won Roland Garros last year. 

Madison Keys looked very good last week, and assuming that she will continue to be healthy, she will have to go up against the two- time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova. The Czech, who destroyed Katerina Siniakova in the first round, is favored, slightly. If Keys attacks early, and doesn’t get so upset, then the American can pound her forehand in the third set. And win.

Last year at the Aussie Open, Naomi Osaka won it all. While she has been up and down since, the Japanese is incredibly powerful and her first serve is huge. Assuming that Sofia Kenin will win three matches, then the American will be pumped up. Osaka is a better player, still, and she will trip her up.

Serena Williams hadn’t played for four months and last week she finally walked on the court, winning Auckland. Now she is back, and even though she is aging, she is almost perfect when she is secure. In the fourth round, she could face against her good friend Caro Wozniacki. Can you imagine that, especially has the Dane has announced that this is her final tournament? One way or another, Serena will beat her, punching her forehand.

Both Osaka and Williams were straight-set winners on Monday.

Belinda Bencic is very unpredictable; she is great when she is very consistent, but when she becomes tired, then she gets mentally lazy. However, she is pushing herself in the backcourt, she can hit a vast amount of winners. The same goes with Aryna Sabalenka, who can be swinging away, very hard, and she can best anyone. But she also can be angry and miss the ball a lot. In the fourth round between those two, whoever will win it must understand where she is going, and how to mix it up a lot.

You never know about Simona Halep, who is very consistent, running back and forth. She rarely gets tired, but she also can become injured and then she cannot smack the ball. Regardless, over the past few years, she stopped being scared and now she does have a chance to win her third major. In the fourthth round, she likely will face the young Czech Karolina Muchova. So many Czech women are so good. So Halep has to move it all around the box. And the Romanian will. 
 
Will Elina Svitolina finally win a Grand Slam? At some point, yes, but not this one at the AO. However, she will win three matches, and then she will lose against the enthusiastic American Amanda Anisimova. Ms. AA is getting better every second. 

At some point, Karolina Pliskova will win a major, when she is consistent over seven matches. Will she do it at the AO? She is defiantly close. However, though, she has to take down against the very good young player Marketa Vondrousova. Pliskova can edge her, but she has to be very smart. Super smart.

Who is the super young Cori Gauff?

Over the past 51 years, it has been very rare to see the 15-year-old women players have reached the second week at Wimbledon. It has happened here and there, but when you beat three players on grass, and you are an American, who grew up largely on hard courts, then to upset experiences players, well, is quite an accomplishment.

Cori “Coco” Gauff fended off two match points, but somehow, she rose up and knocked off Polona Hercog 3-6, 7-6(7), 7-5.  

“When [the last shot] was going overhead, I was like, ‘Please go out, please,'” Gauff said. “Then after, when I was jumping, I was like, ‘Wow, I can’t believe it. It’s been one long match, it’s finally over!’ “

Yes it was. She is very fast, she really concentrates, and she can smack her forehand and her  backhand. Without a doubt, she has a long way to go, because she is very, very young, and she has to improve a lot of different things. But what I can already say, if she continues to work, and really focus, then soon enough, she will crack the top 20 within a year.      

NOTES
I think we all know that Karolina Pliskova is almost on fire — almost. She just won Eastbourne last week, she was hitting the ball very hard, and of course, her first serve is massive. Still, though, in the past decade, she can look great, and she can be pretty lousy. She has matured a great deal, though. She has never loved grass, but right now, maybe she finally will. She will faces her fellow Czech, Karolina Muchova, in the round of 16… 

Caro Wozniacki went down. We all knew that on grass, she doesn’t know to be patient enough. Or to be more aggressive. She has never gone deep at Wimbledon, but in a few weeks, she will be on the hard courts again. You have to think that she will play pretty well in the U.S. and Canada, but she has to prove it again. …  

Elina Sviolina is still there. Maybe she can reach into the quarters? On grass? Outside at the Grand Slams, she is a top-5 player over the past couple years, but at the majors, it gets into her head. Maybe, she has changed… 

On Friday, Simon Halep played almost perfectly, while Vika Azarenka did not play well at all. Pretty bad, in fact. If Azarenka comes back into the top 10, she will have to concentrate better. 

We expected a terrific match on Saturday between Sloane Stephens versus Jo Konta. It turned out to be exciting, as Konta had to overcome losing the first set. Stephens said that she would be changing up her tactics. But, it didn’t work, especially in the final set. Konta won 3-6, 6-4, 6-1.

For another story from me about Stephens and Naomi Osaka, go to: Tennis.com.

Notes of the Draw Sheet: Happy people in January

Caroline Wozniacki

FROM THE AUSTRALIAN OPEN — Just before the Grand Slams open, so many people will be fresh, fast and happy. Tennis-wise, in January, most of the people had decided to rest for a couple weeks — at least — not hitting the ball, just thinking about new things.

But when they finally walk on the court again and swing, will he or she pay attention? And listen to their coaches. And really try.

In a few days, we can talk about who will actually win the AO? Will it be Novak Djokovic, who has won it so many times? Caro Wozniacki, who won it last year. While she isn’t playing great right now, she loves to play on the hard courts? Maybe Roger Federer again, or Serena Williams, etc. …
 
Sloane Stephens lost pretty early, last week. This week, she went down against Yulia Putintseva 3-6, 7-6(4),6-0. The No. 5 doesn’t play fantastic outside of the Slams, but she sure has had success since the 2017 US Open.
 
Petra Kvitova won in Sydney on Wedneday, and she is ranked No. 8. Win or lose, when she gets here to the AO, she has to be more consistent and determined. That is the only chance to win it for the first time in Australia. She is more mature, so maybe she will be very focused. Maybe.

Sam Stosur lost again. At the AO, for a solid decade, she has had no real success. After she leaves Australia, she can play damn good, especially by blasting her forehand and her big serves. But here, she is so nervous, all the time. I would be surprised if she reaches the second week. I really do. Sometimes, people just cannot change.

In Hobart, 20-year-old Sofia Kenin upset Caroline Garcia 6-3 6-2, and of Thursday, she took down the 33-year-old Kirsten Flipkens. Once again, the American women are rising. Slowly.

There have been some fine wins by the Aussie Alex de Minaur in Sydney. He is only 19 years old, and he is coming up pretty fast. He beat Jordan Thompson, and he has reached the semis. Next week, guess who will he play assuming he is moves through the first two rounds: Rafa Nadal. Now that will be a blast to watch on Rod Laver Arena.

Some note on a few American seeded men: Steve Johnson could play against the big basher Kevin Anderson, and the improved John Isner could play the struggling Grigor Dimitrov. Isner has said that he has really been affected by very tough losses at the AO — five setters — but now, he is more directed. BTW: Isner lost to Taylor Fritz in Auckland. The Californian hung in there, but then he lost against Cameron Norrie. Oh well.

Believe it or not, Jack Sock received a wild card. He will face the Aussie Alex Bolt, and if he wins — and that is a very big if — he might have to go up against the tricky player Gilles Simon. After that, in the third round, it could be going against the No. 4 Alexander Zverev. Impossible, or potentially very exciting. …   

A good move by the USTA, choosing the new Davis Cup captain Mardy Fish. That is super interesting. I cannot wait to see the new Davis Cup this year. …


On Friday and Saturday, we will dissect the men and the women’s draws. There are already a bunch of compelling matchups: like Raonic vs Kyrgios,
Cilic vs Tomic, Edmund vs Berdych, Gorges vs. Collins and Halep vs. Kanepi. It is always fascinating, the fabulous first rounds.

WTA Finals: Svitolina revives, upends Pliskova

Elina Svitolina
Back in the spring, Elina Svitolina was ready to pounce. She hadn’t won a Grand Slam, but in the big tournaments, she was very strong, fast and powerful.

From January through May, she won Brisbane, Dubai and Rome against very good players. She upset the No. 1 Simona Halep in the final in Italy — on clay. She was legitimately one of the favorites going in Roland Garros. But she lost in the third round. She wept and she was very upset.

The same thing happened during the summer. She lost in the first round at Wimbledon, but back in the hard courts, she began to feel a little bit better, and she reached the semis at Montreal and the quarters in Cincinnati. Not great, great, but decent. 

But after she walked into the US Open, in the first week, she looked pretty good. But, then in the third set against Anastasija Sevastova, she totally disappeared, and she went down 6-0 in the third. Wow. Credit to Sevastova, but Svitolina  totally crashed out. It is all about the Slams, and she has yet to go super deep in the majors.

But not now. In the past four days, she is into it again, beating Karolina Pliskova 6-3, 2-6, 6-3. In the third set, she looked healthy and concentrated. Two days ago,  she smoked Petra Kvitova, serving and running substantially faster. 

“I think my serve was not great today at all, but it’s also, on the other hand, she’s returning pretty well, so she’s putting a lot of balls back,” Pliskova said. “So, there is the pressure that you always have to play the ball after the serve. … Obviously, the third set I didn’t hold much my serve, which is always frustrating, but she’s a good player, too, so I was not there alone.”

And now, in Singapore, Svitolina had a decent chance to win it all. She is pretty honest. Here is what she said after the match about the Czech:  “It worked really good, because I think Karolina was up and down and struggling sometimes.”

Yes, she did, and now, on Thursday, Pliskova has to down Caro Wozniacki to make the semis. Right now, both of them are feeling good. There will be some long rallies, and Svitolina has to be patient. The same goes with Wozniacki, who has to be step in, rather than going way back on the court.

“[Against Wozniacki] it’s another tough battle. She’s a fighter and so am I,” Svitolina said. “It’s gonna be a tough match.”

WTA Finals Race: Wozniacki, Stephens, Kvitova



It is in the middle October, and next week the top 8 players are at the WTA Finals in Singapore. On Wednesday, Elina Svitolina and Karolina Pliskova qualified, joining Simona Halep, Caro Wozniacki, Angelique Kerber, Naomi Osaka, Petra Kvitova and Sloane Stephens.

Halep’s back issues flared up enough for her to withdraw. Holland’s Kiki Bertens will take her spot.

Will they go out there and really battle? Mostly, but over the years in Singapore, a few people couldn’t run fast, or they were so exhausted. Right now, we don’t know until they get on the court, but day after day — they have to play three matches, wins or lose —so we will discover who really wants it.

There were some incredible matches last year. Kvitova, who reached the final and had a solid chance, but she lost 6–2, 4–6, 6–3 to Aga Radwanska, when the Pole was healthy and she out-thought everyone. Aga has been hurt over the past year so she isn’t in Singapore, but Kvitova is right there. The Czech has had a some terrific wins this season, but in the fall, she has been so-so at best. Will she rise? Perhaps, as Kvitova won the WTA Final in 2011, knocking out Vika Azarenka in three fun sets.

Kerber, too, is playing once again, but she hasn’t won the event. In 2016, she was on top of it, but she lost toDomi Cibulkova, who was on fire towards the end of the season. Cibulkova isn’t in this draw, having plummeted to No. 27.

Last year in October, Wozniacki won the event, for the first time, and she has qualified so many times. Back in Doha, she reached the final in 2010 against Kim Clijsters, who is now retired, and the Belgian overcame Wozniacki 6–3, 5–7, 6–3, which was pretty close. In 2017, in the final in Singapore, Wozniacki settled down and cracked her wonderful backhand. She was thrilled, which is why a few more months later, she won the 2018 Australian Open, the first time she had won a Grand Slam. Obviously, she was thrilled, but the most important thing is that not only was she confident, but she has improved her forehand and her returns. Maybe she can win it again next week? She is right there.

Who is playing the best in the event?

Kerber just split with the coach, Wim Fissette, andhad a pretty decent year. But, since she won Wimbledon, she has slipped. Winning Singapore would be almost shocking. 

The young Osaka certainly has a chance to win it. Kvitova has been struggling during the fall, and the same goes with American Stephens, is not playing well at all now. Pliskova looked awful in Moscow, while Svitolina has been very shaky.

Who will win it?

My vote for the top three in Singapore: Wozniacki, Osaka and Kvitova.

In Stuttgart, Muguruza & Kerber retire

Photo: Mal Taam/MALTphoto

There have been good matches in Stuttgart, and there are some big pullouts. Over the past three-and-a-half months, there have been the vast majority top women who have played — and competed. The great Williams sisters have been able to play, as has Simona Halep, Caro Wozniacki, Elina Svitolina, Jelena Ostapenkp, Caroline Garcia, Sloane Stephens and Daria Kasatkina, among others. That is a very good thing because over the past 25 years, many of the players have been hurt way too frequently. But now, they are getting smarter, playing less.

However, yesterday in Stuttgart, three major players pulled out: the two-time champion Garbine Muguruza, another two-time champion Angie Kerber, and the up and coming 18-year-old, Marketa Vondrousova. In the same day? That is somewhat brutal. That just started playing on the clay, which is actually better for your knees. Maybe it is just bad luck, or maybe they should have pulled out before they came to Stuttgart. Last weekend, many players played in the Fed Cup. Someone won, some lost, but either way, the Fed Cup is one of the most entertaining events of the year. So, after Sunday, and some players were very tired, with messed-up bodies. The answer: pull out before the tournament and don’t get on the plane. What is the point when you are going to lose so quickly? Just don’t come. It is not worth it, for everyone.

At least there are two very good players who are still in: Karolina Pliskova and CoCo Vandeweghe. Both of them don’t love clay, but they can both of them literally crush the ball.

There is a good piece on WTA’s website about the former five-time Grand Slam champion Maria Sharapova. She lost a tough match against Garcia 3-6, 7-6(6), 6-4. Is Sharapova struggling? Yes, a bit, because over the past year, she has been so-so. Frequent injuries could be the cause.

Sharapova is close to becoming more consistent, more patient, more emotionally stable on court. To succeed, she needs to be happy and mentally locked in.

Sharapova decided to let go of her longtime coach, Sven Groeneveld, last month, and now she is reunited with Thomas Hogstedt, another long-time coach. Will they stick? Who knows. In a sense, when you are older, the 30-year-old Sharapova really doesn’t need to have a full-time coach. What you really need is to think hard, all the time, focus, whack it, change it up, be super consistent — just breathe. I can be wrong, but one thing I do know is: It’s all in your own head, and no one else can change it. It is all about you, especially on court.

Indian Wells coming: Svitolina, Serena, Vika, Caro

Notes on A Draw Sheet, March 4, 2018

THE WOMEN
It was good to see Elina Svitolina win the title at Dubai, and as she says, she never gives up. Which is more or less true. But, at the Slams, she can mentally back off. Still, she is only 23 years old, so in the next decade, she can figure out and to go the right places. And nail it. 
In Dubai, she jumped on the resurgent Angie Kerber, and in the final, she beat the good, young player Daria Kasatkina. At Indian Wells, Svitolina will be one of the favorites, but the field is very close, as almost the entire top 10 can beat each other. 
It looks like Serena Williams will walk on the court and play again. It’s very hard to gage how her difficult childbirth and the demands of motherhood are still affecting her. Let’s hop she is ready to compete and win match after match, tournament after tournament. My guess is it will take her a few months to get comfortable. One way or another, it should be a lot of fun …

Vika Azarenka will return at IW, after not playing this year because she is battling with her ex-husband in a custody battle over her young child. Before she stopped playing, Azarenka looked pretty darn good. I would assume that she is very healthy, and she would love to win another major, but the same thing goes here: She needs sometime to understand how she is striking the ball, day after day…

The No. 1 Simona Halep is hurt again, but she always tries to play, pain or nothing at all. She is a true grinder…

The No. 2 Caroline Wozniacki finally won a Grand Slam at the Aussie Open. It took her so long to finally grab it, but now she has and I would think that this year — as she loves to play — she will have a chance to win another major, specifically at the US Open, because she gets frustrated on clay and on grass…

The former two-time champion Petra Kvitova look pretty darn good, winning Doha. She is another one who wants to win so badly she can taste it. She likes fast hard court, but if it is very windy, she can get frustrated. Kvitova does like Indian Wells, the weather, almost everything, so if she is feeling it, she could go very deep, and win it. That would be huge, mentally.
 
THE MEN
Once again, Juan Martin del Potro is on fire, which is terrific, because when he is healthy, he can knock down anyone. How about this: in Acapulco, he beat the vet Mischa Zverev, the grinder David Ferrer, the flashy Dominic Thiem and the young brother, the No. 5 Alexander Zverev. In the final, he knocked out the 2017 Us Open finalist Kevin Anderson 6-4, 6-4. Very good stuff.

It is all about Delpo’s health. When his arms start to break down, then he leaves and he cannot play. But when it isn’t so bad, he can hit his two-hander, rather than just his one-hander, which he can only slice. That is why, among other things, that he could not beat the best players at the Grand Slams and come up short in the past eight years. He can hang in there in two out of three, but in the Slams, it’s three out of five. Towards the end, in the second week, he gets tired and he cannot find the lines. He looked very good this past week, with his huge serve, his massive forehand, his decent return and improved net game. He is a darn good player.
Even though he lost, the same goes with Anderson. Yes, he isn’t that fast because he is very tall, but he really hustles and whenever he gets a chance, he can jump on it. Both of them will be extremely confident heading into IW next week.

2018 Aussie Open, The Picks, Day 8

Rafa Nadal vs Mario Cilic
The Spaniard had a pretty tough night against the improving Diego Schwartzman.Nadal won, but it took nearly four hours. He has been there before, and the No. 1 will be there again, but still, it is somewhat early and he has to make sure not to get hurt at all during the AO event. 
For Nadal, the good thing is when he is on court against Cilic, they won’t have too many rallies, The very tall Mario is a terrific player, but he isn’t that fast. Cilic has a big serve, his heavy forehand and he can mix it up, going down low. 
Yes, Cilic can upset Nadal, if he is playing amazing, hour after hour, but in reality, Nadal has won 16 Grand Slams, and Cilic has won just one — at the US Open. Clearly, over the past 13 years, Nadal has been a better player. With his phenomenal forehand and his tough return, Nadal will win in four sets.

Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyle Edmunds
Dimitrov is totally on fire. He took down the Aussie Nick Kygrios on Saturday night, and now, he is locked in. Brit Edmunds has had a fine tournament this week, and he has improved a lot over the past year, but when is he going to figure out what to do with his weapons? Here and there, yes, but Dimitrov has so much variety, when he needs it. The Bulgarian wins in straight sets.

Caro Wozniacki vs Carla Suarez Navarro
This should be a very interesting match. They have never faced off against in the Grand Slams. In 2016 Tokyo, Caro won 6-4 in the third on a hardcourt, and in 2017 Madrid, Carlo won 6-4, 2-6, 6-2  on clay.  
Wozniacki has been better than Suarez over the past 10 years, as she has won 27 titles, while the Spaniard has only won a few. Yes, Wozniacki can fall flat here and there, but in the past 12 months, she has changed it up a little bit and once again, she is very focused.  
Suarez practices all the time, she goes from tournament after tournament. Even though she can sit way behind the court, she mixes it up consistently. Plus, she actually has a one-handed backhand, which is very unusual on the WTA. 
It will go three sets and both of them already know that they will be there for a solid two hours, rally after rally. Neither of them ever gets tired. You never know with Caro: will she be aggressive, or push the ball. Either way, she will win to advance at the semis.

Elina Svitolina vs Elise Mertens
Ukranian Svitolina is coming very close to No. 1. Maybe next week, maybe in a few months, or towards at the end of the year. But first, she has to take down Mertens, a very good player. 
There are times that Svitolina gets angry, inside her head, but she is so driven. She has a terrific first serve, and loads of spin, and she can nail her forehand and her backhand. 
Mertens hustles, too, and everyday, she gets better and better. But can she upset Elena? I cannot see it, yet, but maybe soon. Svitolina wins in straight sets.

When in Roma: Serena dusts Robson

Federer, Djokovic shake off Madrid defeats

The last player to beat both Williams sisters as a teenager at a tournament was Kim Clijsters as a 19-year-old back at the 2002 WTA Championships. As promising as a player as she is and the Briton clearly has at least top 20 stuff, Laura Robson is not as advanced as the Belgian was at the age. After upsetting a physically struggling Venus Williams in her opening match in Rome, Robson went down to No 1 Serena Williams 6-2, 6-2.

The left-handed Robson did crack some winners in the contest but committed way too many unforced errors and, against as player as powerful and consistent as Serena (consistent being the key word here), that is not going to get it done. Robson is currently working with Adidas Player Development coach Sven Groeneveld, who surely must be trying to help get her serve under control, as her toss is all over the place. She