TR rewind from 2018: the cool Naomi Osaka beats Serena

naomi osaka
Naomi Osaka, the Japanese who lives in Florida, won the US Open, and  arrived as one of the best players this year. Yes, the 20-year-old wasn’t perfect, but slowly, she got better and better though the fortnight. At the US Open, she fought. Her big serve was unbelievably good, her forehand was powerful, and her backhand was vicious. She returned pretty well, too, and she hustled.

Even in the last game, when it was 5-4, and Osaka had to serve it out, she wasn’t very nervous and took her time. She won match point with a hard serve into the corner. Yes, she cried, because there were a lot of people who were booing, but at the end, she smiled, a few times.  The now No. 7 could win a number of majors over the next 15 years. Osaka is that good.     

The Others

Serena Williams
At the US Open, Serena played six matches, and she looked darn good, knocking off a bunch of strong players. But in the final, against Osaka, she was mediocre, half and half. She served OK, but it’s not like she needed to bring in her massive first serves, and her second serve was up and down. She rarely came into the net, which she should have. When she belted her backhand and forehand, they would fly out, and there were a number of errors.

Obviously, Serena was very angry during the match. She was very, very ticked off. She yelled, she screamed, she busted her racket, she was very frustrated. She argued with the chair umpire, asking for an apology, time and time again. The fans were surprised by the code violation. They didn’t really know why. But many people love her, so they booed with the the umpire.

Serena lost it, on court and off court, she argued some, and she defended herself. OK, yes, it’s all about tennis, and she really wanted to win. But, if she stopped yelling, after a few minutes, and played, it could have had a different outcome. She had to be super calm, but she couldn’t, and perhaps she would have overcome Osaka.

As Serena said, Osaka played great and she deserved it. Good for Serena for saying that. But she has to be honest, and should have said, “Sorry, I messed it up, apologies.” She hasn’t done that yet. We will see whether she dowa it during the fall— if she is going to play for the rest of the year. Everything is questionable now. Ugh.   

Anastasija Sevastova
The 29-year-old Sevastova showed off her incredible variety, upending Elena Svitolina and Sloane Stephens before going down versus Serena pretty quickly. But, her amazing drop shots, her very quick feet and variety were in full display. Yes, she needs to improve her serves, and her returns, but she will remain dangerous.  

Madison Keys
For the most part, Keys played well, even better, because from January through most of August, she was so-so. But at the USO, she was aggressive, more accurate and she focused, a lot. However, Osaka served huge, and Keys couldn’t break her. She has to find some consistency. Hopefully, during the fall, she will be healthy and move up the ladder.

Carla Suárez Navarro
The veteran Spaniard beat Caroline Garcia 5-7 6-4 7-6(4), then she beat Maria Sharapova in straight sets. She did lose against Keys in the quarters, but still, the-30 year-old decided to hit her shots hard and deep, spin it, slice it, and smack the ball when she had an opportunity. She has been around for a long time, and she has yet to win a major, and maybe she won’t. But, given that she has been better this year, the No. 22 has a long shot at a Slam.

Top 30 in 2018: Women 25-21

No. 25: Dominika Cibulkova
The 29-year-old Slovak has played so many tournaments, with winning 446 and 280 losses. Can she eventually hit 1,000 total? Possibility, for sure, but she will need more than a few years more on tour. Sure, she isn’t tall, but is super intense when on court. She is still swift, she celebrates and she can yell. Her serve is marginal, but both her forehand and backhand can be deep. She believes in herself, most of the time, and when she isn’t playing well, she will still try and try again. Cibulkova did reach the 2014 final at the Australian Open. Can she do it again next month? You have to give her an opportunity, at least a little bit.   

No. 24: Mihaela Buzarnescu
What a year by the 30-year-old, who was out for years because she had a shoulder and knee injuries. In July, she won San Jose and upended Elina Svitolina at Roland Garros and Birmingham. She is a big hitter and he’s hitting her stride. Buzarnescu started the year ranked No. 59, and now she is close to reach the top 20, or even further. Not bad. Good, in fact. 

No. 23: Carla Suarez Navarro
The 30-year-old veteran had a fine year. Yes, the Spaniard won’t be able to win a Slam, but she is always out there, trying, re-tooling her tactics. Years ago, this one-hander was way back behind the court. For sure, she was very steady. But, in order to upend the most important players, she had to run forward. She didn’t do it enough, but only once in a while. Now, she can attack while remaining steady. Suarez Navarro has been around for 15 years. Give her another five years, because clearly, she loves playing the sports, win or lose.

No. 22: Jelena Ostapenko
At times, the Latvian is so, so good. In 2017, she won Roland Garros, moving quickly and blasting off of both sides, nailing on top of the lines. Sure, she can rack up a ton of errors. But, when she is excited and thinking on court, she can lock in. However, this season Ostapenko dropped, and she lost a number of important matches starting in August. Good thing she reached the semis at Wimbledon, but she lost in the first round in Paris to Kateryna Kozlova. She wasn’t there. The 21-year-old is still young, so in 2019, she will play great at times, but still, she has more things to improve, and to figure it out. 
  
No. 21: Anett Kontaveit
The Estonian had some terrific wins, outside in the Grand Slams, but she did reach in the final in Wuhan, upsetting the 2017 US Open champ Sloane Stephens and she finally lost to the young riser Aryna Sabalenta. In Rome, she knocked off Venus Williams and Carolina Wozniacki before she went down to Elina Svitolina. Kontaveit can be very aggressive, and she can crack her forehand, but on court, she can get alarmed and she can totally lose it. The 22-year-old should get better next year, and improve her backhand and net play. If she does, she can reach the top 10 in 2019, at some point. And then?   

The top 5: the cool Naomi Osaka beats Serena

naomi osaka
Naomi Osaka, the Japanese who lives in Florida, won the US Open, and  arrived as one of the best players this year. Yes, the 20-year-old wasn’t perfect, but slowly, she got better and better though the fortnight. At the US Open, she fought. Her big serve was unbelievably good, her forehand was powerful, and her backhand was vicious. She returned pretty well, too, and she hustled.

Even in the last game, when it was 5-4, and Osaka had to serve it out, she wasn’t very nervous and took her time. She won match point with a hard serve into the corner. Yes, she cried, because there were a lot of people who were booing, but at the end, she smiled, a few times.  The now No. 7 could win a number of majors over the next 15 years. Osaka is that good.     

The Others

Serena Williams
At the US Open, Serena played six matches, and she looked darn good, knocking off a bunch of strong players. But in the final, against Osaka, she was mediocre, half and half. She served OK, but it’s not like she needed to bring in her massive first serves, and her second serve was up and down. She rarely came into the net, which she should have. When she belted her backhand and forehand, they would fly out, and there were a number of errors.

Obviously, Serena was very angry during the match. She was very, very ticked off. She yelled, she screamed, she busted her racket, she was very frustrated. She argued with the chair umpire, asking for an apology, time and time again. The fans were surprised by the code violation. They didn’t really know why. But many people love her, so they booed with the the umpire.

Serena lost it, on court and off court, she argued some, and she defended herself. OK, yes, it’s all about tennis, and she really wanted to win. But, if she stopped yelling, after a few minutes, and played, it could have had a different outcome. She had to be super calm, but she couldn’t, and perhaps she would have overcome Osaka.

As Serena said, Osaka played great and she deserved it. Good for Serena for saying that. But she has to be honest, and should have said, “Sorry, I messed it up, apologies.” She hasn’t done that yet. We will see whether she dowa it during the fall— if she is going to play for the rest of the year. Everything is questionable now. Ugh.   

Anastasija Sevastova
The 29-year-old Sevastova showed off her incredible variety, upending Elena Svitolina and Sloane Stephens before going down versus Serena pretty quickly. But, her amazing drop shots, her very quick feet and variety were in full display. Yes, she needs to improve her serves, and her returns, but she will remain dangerous.  

Madison Keys
For the most part, Keys played well, even better, because from January through most of August, she was so-so. But at the USO, she was aggressive, more accurate and she focused, a lot. However, Osaka served huge, and Keys couldn’t break her. She has to find some consistency. Hopefully, during the fall, she will be healthy and move up the ladder.

Carla Suárez Navarro
The veteran Spaniard beat Caroline Garcia 5-7 6-4 7-6(4), then she beat Maria Sharapova in straight sets. She did lose against Keys in the quarters, but still, the-30 year-old decided to hit her shots hard and deep, spin it, slice it, and smack the ball when she had an opportunity. She has been around for a long time, and she has yet to win a major, and maybe she won’t. But, given that she has been better this year, the No. 22 has a long shot at a Slam.

2018 Aussie Open, The Picks, Day 8

Rafa Nadal vs Mario Cilic
The Spaniard had a pretty tough night against the improving Diego Schwartzman.Nadal won, but it took nearly four hours. He has been there before, and the No. 1 will be there again, but still, it is somewhat early and he has to make sure not to get hurt at all during the AO event. 
For Nadal, the good thing is when he is on court against Cilic, they won’t have too many rallies, The very tall Mario is a terrific player, but he isn’t that fast. Cilic has a big serve, his heavy forehand and he can mix it up, going down low. 
Yes, Cilic can upset Nadal, if he is playing amazing, hour after hour, but in reality, Nadal has won 16 Grand Slams, and Cilic has won just one — at the US Open. Clearly, over the past 13 years, Nadal has been a better player. With his phenomenal forehand and his tough return, Nadal will win in four sets.

Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyle Edmunds
Dimitrov is totally on fire. He took down the Aussie Nick Kygrios on Saturday night, and now, he is locked in. Brit Edmunds has had a fine tournament this week, and he has improved a lot over the past year, but when is he going to figure out what to do with his weapons? Here and there, yes, but Dimitrov has so much variety, when he needs it. The Bulgarian wins in straight sets.

Caro Wozniacki vs Carla Suarez Navarro
This should be a very interesting match. They have never faced off against in the Grand Slams. In 2016 Tokyo, Caro won 6-4 in the third on a hardcourt, and in 2017 Madrid, Carlo won 6-4, 2-6, 6-2  on clay.  
Wozniacki has been better than Suarez over the past 10 years, as she has won 27 titles, while the Spaniard has only won a few. Yes, Wozniacki can fall flat here and there, but in the past 12 months, she has changed it up a little bit and once again, she is very focused.  
Suarez practices all the time, she goes from tournament after tournament. Even though she can sit way behind the court, she mixes it up consistently. Plus, she actually has a one-handed backhand, which is very unusual on the WTA. 
It will go three sets and both of them already know that they will be there for a solid two hours, rally after rally. Neither of them ever gets tired. You never know with Caro: will she be aggressive, or push the ball. Either way, she will win to advance at the semis.

Elina Svitolina vs Elise Mertens
Ukranian Svitolina is coming very close to No. 1. Maybe next week, maybe in a few months, or towards at the end of the year. But first, she has to take down Mertens, a very good player. 
There are times that Svitolina gets angry, inside her head, but she is so driven. She has a terrific first serve, and loads of spin, and she can nail her forehand and her backhand. 
Mertens hustles, too, and everyday, she gets better and better. But can she upset Elena? I cannot see it, yet, but maybe soon. Svitolina wins in straight sets.

The WTA top 32’s in 2015: former No. 1 Ivanovic slides, Bencic could win a Slam (No. 16-13)

Ivanovic IW 15 TR MALT2696

 

 

WTA from Nos. 16 through 13

No. 16

Ana Ivanovic

The Serbian is better than that. She reached No. 1 in 2008, winning Roland Garros, and even before that, she took down a number of her contenders, including Venus Williams, Jelena Jankovic, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Vera Zvonareva, Nadia Petrova and Maria Sharapova, among others. She was improving all the time, and hitting her phenomenal forehand as hard as she could. It looked like she would stay inside the top 5 forever.

But alas, she was unable to be consistent enough and, while she has attempted to improve overall and change her tactics, she is still up and down. This season, she woke up at RG, reached the semifinals and went down 7-5 7-5 against Lucie Safarova. She was so close, but yet so far. After that, she tumbled, managing to reach the semis of Beijing, but other than that, she lost very early.

Can the 28-year-old go very deep at another major once again? Sure she can, but to win another one is another question. For the first time, I would say that I would be very surprised. She has a very long road once again.

No. 15

Roberta Vinci

Without a doubt, the Italian played her best season ever by far. With the entire world watching, she stunned the famous Serena Williams in the semifinal of the US Open, not backing off or becoming afraid. She went into the zone. A few weeks later in Wuhan, she knocked out Petra Kvitova and Katarina Pliskova to reach the semis, going down 7-6(7) in the third against Venus. She may have lost, but at the very least, she pushed as hard as she could.

The 32-year-old Vinci says that she will retire at the end of 2016, but the wicked slice backhand could keep her in the top 20 all year-long. Sure, she has been competing for the past 16 years, which is a very long time, but if she is still healthy, maybe she will think that she can go further.

No. 14

Belinda Bencic

If the 18-year-old Swiss hadn’t been hurt early in October, she could have ended in the top 10. However, after Beijing she had to stop, which is good because she is super young and has miles to go. Without question, she is already intelligent and wise, plus she can smoke the ball and mix it up.

She has upset a number of fine competitors over this year, but just one of the tournaments made the fans turned and stared: Bencic beat Genie Bouchard, Caroline Wozniacki, Sabine Lisicki, Ivanovic, Serena and Simona Halep to win the Toronto title. Right there, you knew that she is coming incredibly strong. If Bencic is healthy and she improves a little bit, she could win a major in 2016. She is that good.

No. 13

Carla Suarez-Navarro

From February through May, the Spaniard was on a roll. She reached the final at Miami, beating Aga Radwanska and Venus before Serena drilled her. She reached the quarters at Madrid and at Rome, she bested Kvitova and Halep before falling against Maria Sharapova in three sets.

But in Paris, she lost in the third round to Flavia Pennetta and, after that, she went on the boil. She managed to reach the quarters at Birmingham on grass, but then, she lost seven matches in a row. She was done.

However, the Spaniard with a one-hand backhand can dominate inside the baseline. She is super strong, but mentally, she has to be in much more control.

Notes on a a Draw Sheet: Djokokic, Sharapova win Rome, but are they now ready for Roland Garros?

Sharapova IW 15 TR MALT7443

 

MAY 17- Novak Djokovic won another huge tournament, beating Roger Federer 6-4, 6-3 to win Rome. It was close in the first set, but the Serbian was almost perfect again, virtually not making errors, moving his service all around the box, out-hitting his backhand crosscourt and cracking his forehand.

The 33-year-old Federer looked pretty good too, but even though he mixed it up, he could tell that Djokovic was not going to make any serious errors and he would have to be near-perfect. He could not and in the second set, you could tell that Federer was not confident enough and he couldn’t not raise his level and sore way up high into the sky and out last him. The Swiss knows that Djokovic is better than anyone now and the rest of the field have to wait until he falls down.

Will that occur next week when Roland Garros begins? No one really knows, but that we do know is that Djokovic has never won Paris and at some point he will become nervous. Can he take a deep breath and feel good about himself and play outstanding? Perhaps, but if he plays Federer again when ‘Rog’ beat Novak in 2011 in the semis, we all knew that it’s 3 out of 5 sets, not 2 out of 3 sets, and everyone can be shaky, just like Djokovic did.

Last year, the same thing happened when Djokovic faced Rafa Nadal in the final and the Spaniard had much more depth and variety. Djokovic has looked substantially better up until right now, but in Paris, it’s a new tournament, new stories and new questions. Will he be asked whether he won’t be nervous when the heat is on? We will hear Djokovic’s answer very soon.

Maria Sharapova took a deep breath after she won the tournament in Italy, besting Carla Suarez-Navarro 4-6, 7-5, 6-1 in the final. She was up and down during the first two sets, and Suarez was quite confident with her heavy topspin, but at 5-5, Sharapova gritted her teeth, swung super hard and won eight straight points to win the second set. Then she was on-fire and won the third set quickly. Remember when Sharapova played Simona Halep at 4-4 in the third set at 2014 Roland Garros? She smoked eight points and won the title. Same thing. Deep inside she was ready to raise up and she did.

Now Sharapova is confident again, which means that outside of Serena Williams, who has owned her for many years, she is the favorite. Sharapova is now ranked No. 2, so she and Serena cannot meet until the final. The Russian/American will be pleased that she and Serena won’t be playing on the same days and stare at each other when they are walking past the locker room.

Sharapova is happy after winning Rome, after she was unable to grab another title since the beginning of the start of the year in Brisbane. Then, Maria thought she could have a great season. Perhaps after winning Italy, she will punch out everyone again, if she did last week, when she was moving inside the court and blasting winners time and time again. However, the 5-time Grand Slam champion has never won a major back to back. Maybe she can pull it off at Roland Garros, but she will have to start quickly so she doesn’t doubt her confidence.

The other women

Suarez had another fine tournament and now she is ranked No. 8. By all rights, she should reach the quarterfinals and hopefully she won’t have to play Williams and Sharapova, but she will be very happy taking on No. 3 Halep or No. 4 Petra Kvitova, whom she beat both in Rome.

Outside of the top 4 as well as Suarez, it’s so hard to figure out who has been playing very well on clay. Almost no one. You have to think that a few of the kids can go deep in Paris such as Madison Keys, Elina Svitolina, Garbine Muguruza and Caroline Garcia. Perhaps Karolina Pliskova, Timea Bacsinszky and Zarina Diyas, but who else? …Amongst the veterans, there are a few who have looked well over the past couple months, even if they were sporadic like Andrea Petkovic, Angie Kerber, Svetlana Kuznetsova and Victoria Azarenka, who has looked tremendous at times, but she did not look confident when she lost to Sharapova…Three US women were close to be seeded in the top 32, but they couldn’t get there. CoCo Vandeweghe is ranked No. 33, Varvara Lepchenko is No. 34 and Madison Brengle is No. 36. Hopefully they will have decent seeds on the first round.

The other men 

There will be volumes of Nadal next week, trying as to why the 14-time Grand Slam champion has been struggling all year. Obviously, he is not stroking the ball correctly, which is why for the first time ever, he is making errors from both his forehand and backhand. Perhaps he will shake it off soon, or his coach and uncle Toni will figure why he is flying long or he is too short. As Rafa Nadal said, he isn’t sure when he will be 100% during the next couple of months, but that may not happen in Paris. If he cannot, then all he can do is to grind against the lesser players, but when he goes up against the major competitors then he will have to take risks because one thing is for sure, the rest of the players know he is vulnerable and they are licking their chops.

A couple months ago, who would have thought that No. 3 Andy Murray would win a major tournament on clay for the first time (he won Madrid) and Tomas Berdych is ranked No. 4 for the first time? Murray has an outside chance to win Roland Garros, but while Berdych has been solid against the men outside of the top 10, he hasn’t been able to knock out the Big 4, except upsetting Nadal.  Outside of the Big 4 (Nadal, Djokovic, Federer and Murray) are the favorites once again, but who else has a real chance to reach the final? Ok, fine, Berdych can, but not if he faces Djokovic or Federer. Kei Nishikori, but this year he has been a little short against the top players. David Ferrer never gets tired and he is very steady, but he is not powerful enough. Here are some other men, veterans or youngsters, who could reach in the semis, as long as they start hit early: Stan Wawrinka, Gael Monfils, John Isner, David Goffin, Fabio Fognini and Nick Kyrgios…Two US guys were close to reaching the top 32: Jack Sock who is No. 36, and Sam Querrey, who is ranked No. 38.

 

The Pick, Rome, May 16: Djokovic vs. Ferrer, Federer vs Wawrinka, Halep vs. Suarez, Sharapova vs. Gavrilova

wawrinka 2012 rg

1-Novak Djokovic vs. 7-David Ferrer

The so-called youngsters are gone again, and the veterans have reached the semifinals. Novak Djokovic overcame Kei Nishikori 6-3 3-6 6-1, and David Ferrer beat David Goffin 6-2 4-6 6-3. Now the 33-year-old Ferrer will try and figure out how the Serbian will attack him. Djokovic has won their last eight matches. But, at the very least, Ferrer is 3-2 head to head on clay, so he can recall when he frustrated him and has a decent chance.

Djokovic has had to fight in three sets, three times this week, when he was a little off at times. However, by the third set, he was more consistent, locked in both on his forehand and backhand and threw in some gorgeous drop shots.

If Ferrer is going to allow Djokovic to charge early and often then the Spaniard will become frustrated and become erratic. Ferrer prefers to engage in long points, parking in the left corner and whacking on his gigantic forehand. He will go to the right, left and down to the middle way deep. He is very muscular and he is pretty fast even though he has aged.

The problem is that Ferrer is more predictable, he can’t handle with Djokovic’s super-sharp backhand cross court and he can’t back him off with his serves, which are good, but not great. Ferrer has been playing pretty well during the past two weeks and he realizes that he will have to be aggressive. But Djokovic has a darn good idea exactly what he has to do and he will win in straight sets.

2-Roger Federer vs. 8-Stan Wawrinka

These two are good buddies but when they come on court against each other they are extremely intense. The Swiss’ don’t get mad at each other, but they can get upset if they aren’t playing perfectly.

Federer has won just about everything, except he has never won Italy. The 17-time Grand Slam has reached the final three times, but he was stopped. The 33-year-old  just wants to play as well as he can. On Friday Federer looked very good, easily taking down Tomas Berdych 6-3 6-3.

On paper, Federer should be able to best Wawrinka, whom he is 15-2 head to head. Obviously, he has been better than he has since they started in 2005. He has beat him in clay, hard courts and grass. Federer has tremendous variety, his forehand is the best of all time and these days he likes to come into the net more.

Wawrinka has improved a lot over the past two years. By working hard he’s improved his fitness, forehand and serve. Last year, the 2014 Australian Open champion nearly upsetFederer 4-6, 7-5, 7-6(6) at the Barclay’s ATP World Final, one of the most exciting matches of the year. Stan nearly won it and had some real chances, but Federer stood tall and came through.

Here on clay, this contest will be very close again. Wawrinka didn’t show any nerves of upsetting Rafa Nadal 7-6(7) 6-2 on Friday. He was cracking his phenomenal one-handed backhand, he jumped on his returns and he was able to control his heavy forehand. Can he do it again? Sure he can, if he doesn’t become confused and take too many risks. He must be patient. Just like in 2014 Monte Carlo, Wawrinka upset Federer. This time, he will do it on clay again, winning in three sets.

2-Simona Halep vs. 10-Carla Suarez Navarro

This should be a terrific contest, as they have played nine times, with the 23-year-old Halep having grabbed five wins, and the 26-year-old has snared four wins – three times on clay. The Spaniard grew up on the dirt and loves it and while Halep has risen up quickly over the past two years, Suarez believes she can snare it. Halep knows that her foe will grind it all day long, mixing it up and running for hours.

However, Halep can do the same and she can out hit her with her lightning backhand.Interestingly, the last time they faced off on clay was at 2013 Roland Garros in the first round, won by Suarez. Neither was in the top 10 back then. In fact, Halep was ranked No. 64, and she wasn’t ready against the big girls yet.

A few weeks later, she was ready to roll and she rose quickly. Halep crushed Alexandra Dulgheru in the quarters, but Suarez took out Petra Kvitova 6-3 6-2. Obviously, Halep looked good, but that was a substantial victory by Suarez over the No. 4 Kvitova who had won Madrid. It wouldn’t be surprising if Halep won, because she out-hit her at Indian Wells in three sets in March, But on clay, Suarez will feel her touch and upend the Romanian in three sets.

3-Maria Sharapova vs. Daria Gavrilova

In Miami, Gavrilova stunned Sharapova in the first round. Clearly, Sharapova was hurt and she was extremely erratic, but nonetheless the 21-year-old was gutsy and aggressive when the most important points came. Being able to reach the semifinal here shows she can really play. She might be short, but she is super fast and can crack the ball.

However, Sharapova loves the clay now and she was lethal and beating Victoria Azarenka 6-3 6-2 in the quarters. When the Russian is playing that well against the former No. 1, you know that she is very confident. Credit to Gavrilova for being here and upsetting Sharapova the last time, but the five-time champion wants revenge and she will crush the youngster in straight sets.