Top 32: Rafael Nadal is ‘only’ No. 5, Nishikori has to be healthy

Nadal IW 15 TR MALT0432

 

The top 32, ATP Nos. 8-5

No. 8

Kei Nishikori

The youngest player in the top 10, Nishikori has years ahead, but is he finally ready to win a major? Possibly, but he has to get a little bit better than that. The Japanese might be the fastest player out there, and he is very forceful with his forehand and his backhand, but mentally, he can become disturbed on court when he isn’t hitting the right way. He does have a fine first serve, but his second serve is marginal, as is his net game.

Yes, he has been able to win a few tournaments – Memphis, Barcelona and Washington – which are just fine. But he wasn’t able to take down the world best. He lost against Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Roger Federer. At Roland Garros against Jo Tsonga at the quarters, he had a legitimate chance to go further, but he hiccupped.

He is in aggressive person and can hustle, but in 2015, he became hurt again (he is always hurt) and if he wants to go far and win a Grand Slam in 2016, he must be perfectly healthy.

No. 7

David Ferrer

Good for the 33-year-old who keeps going and going. He may not ever be able to win a Grand Slam, but he never quits. Without a doubt, over the years, he should have mixed it up more, returned more aggressively and take over the net, but that is not his way.

In 2015 he won five titles, in Doha, Rio, Acapulco, Kuala Lumpur and Vienna. He wasn’t able to go super deep in the ATP Masters 1000s or the majors, but still, outside of the top 10, he was able to beat back almost all the youngsters.

Maybe in 2016, he will try to change it up a little bit, but that is unlikely because he would rather sit on top of the baseline and whale away until he retires.

No. 6

Tomas Berdych

I am not sure where the Czech is going. Sure, he was fairly consistent in 2015, but is he really going to move ahead? The 30-year-old Berdych has improved over the past 10 years or so. He is smarter; he can be cagey and, while he isn’t that fast, he is pretty strong going baseline to baseline.

He has won 12 titles, and back in 2005, he won the ATP Masters Series 1000 in grabbing Paris/Bercy, but other than that, is he good enough now to win a major? Perhaps, but he is going to have to find a way to overcome the Big 4 plus 1 (Djokovic, Federer, Murray, Rafa Nadal and Stan Wawrinka)? The only way he is going to do that is to consistently rip the ball and charge the net. He will stay in the top 10 in 2016, but that doesn’t mean he will win a Grand Slam unless he truly changes.

No. 5

Rafael Nadal

Here are the positives in 2015 for the 14-time Grand Slam champ Nadal: for the first time in years, he was not hurt, he was fairly healthy, and overall, he was substantially better during the last couple of months. He didn’t win a major or an ATP Masters 1000, but he kept trying all the time, even though he left the ball too short against the other top competitors.

Look, in 2016, if he is much more confident, then he will be more aggressive. When he is facing the other best of the rest, he will get right in their face.

Nadal’s phenomenal lefty forehand can dominate anyone, but his backhand is still a little weak, especially down the line. His first serve has been strong enough, but he can be predictable. The same goes with his return and net play: he can be very effective, but as he says, that is only when he is feeling completely right.

Nadal can win a major in 2016, or even a couple more Grand Slams next year, but he absolutely has to change a little bit if he is going to stop Djokovic, who has beat him every time in 2015. Head to head, they are now 23–23. The Serbian has improved significantly this season, so if Nadal wants to catch him, he must go right at him and get into his head. He has done it before, but now he has to do it once again.

The Pick, Rome, May 16: Djokovic vs. Ferrer, Federer vs Wawrinka, Halep vs. Suarez, Sharapova vs. Gavrilova

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1-Novak Djokovic vs. 7-David Ferrer

The so-called youngsters are gone again, and the veterans have reached the semifinals. Novak Djokovic overcame Kei Nishikori 6-3 3-6 6-1, and David Ferrer beat David Goffin 6-2 4-6 6-3. Now the 33-year-old Ferrer will try and figure out how the Serbian will attack him. Djokovic has won their last eight matches. But, at the very least, Ferrer is 3-2 head to head on clay, so he can recall when he frustrated him and has a decent chance.

Djokovic has had to fight in three sets, three times this week, when he was a little off at times. However, by the third set, he was more consistent, locked in both on his forehand and backhand and threw in some gorgeous drop shots.

If Ferrer is going to allow Djokovic to charge early and often then the Spaniard will become frustrated and become erratic. Ferrer prefers to engage in long points, parking in the left corner and whacking on his gigantic forehand. He will go to the right, left and down to the middle way deep. He is very muscular and he is pretty fast even though he has aged.

The problem is that Ferrer is more predictable, he can’t handle with Djokovic’s super-sharp backhand cross court and he can’t back him off with his serves, which are good, but not great. Ferrer has been playing pretty well during the past two weeks and he realizes that he will have to be aggressive. But Djokovic has a darn good idea exactly what he has to do and he will win in straight sets.

2-Roger Federer vs. 8-Stan Wawrinka

These two are good buddies but when they come on court against each other they are extremely intense. The Swiss’ don’t get mad at each other, but they can get upset if they aren’t playing perfectly.

Federer has won just about everything, except he has never won Italy. The 17-time Grand Slam has reached the final three times, but he was stopped. The 33-year-old  just wants to play as well as he can. On Friday Federer looked very good, easily taking down Tomas Berdych 6-3 6-3.

On paper, Federer should be able to best Wawrinka, whom he is 15-2 head to head. Obviously, he has been better than he has since they started in 2005. He has beat him in clay, hard courts and grass. Federer has tremendous variety, his forehand is the best of all time and these days he likes to come into the net more.

Wawrinka has improved a lot over the past two years. By working hard he’s improved his fitness, forehand and serve. Last year, the 2014 Australian Open champion nearly upsetFederer 4-6, 7-5, 7-6(6) at the Barclay’s ATP World Final, one of the most exciting matches of the year. Stan nearly won it and had some real chances, but Federer stood tall and came through.

Here on clay, this contest will be very close again. Wawrinka didn’t show any nerves of upsetting Rafa Nadal 7-6(7) 6-2 on Friday. He was cracking his phenomenal one-handed backhand, he jumped on his returns and he was able to control his heavy forehand. Can he do it again? Sure he can, if he doesn’t become confused and take too many risks. He must be patient. Just like in 2014 Monte Carlo, Wawrinka upset Federer. This time, he will do it on clay again, winning in three sets.

2-Simona Halep vs. 10-Carla Suarez Navarro

This should be a terrific contest, as they have played nine times, with the 23-year-old Halep having grabbed five wins, and the 26-year-old has snared four wins – three times on clay. The Spaniard grew up on the dirt and loves it and while Halep has risen up quickly over the past two years, Suarez believes she can snare it. Halep knows that her foe will grind it all day long, mixing it up and running for hours.

However, Halep can do the same and she can out hit her with her lightning backhand.Interestingly, the last time they faced off on clay was at 2013 Roland Garros in the first round, won by Suarez. Neither was in the top 10 back then. In fact, Halep was ranked No. 64, and she wasn’t ready against the big girls yet.

A few weeks later, she was ready to roll and she rose quickly. Halep crushed Alexandra Dulgheru in the quarters, but Suarez took out Petra Kvitova 6-3 6-2. Obviously, Halep looked good, but that was a substantial victory by Suarez over the No. 4 Kvitova who had won Madrid. It wouldn’t be surprising if Halep won, because she out-hit her at Indian Wells in three sets in March, But on clay, Suarez will feel her touch and upend the Romanian in three sets.

3-Maria Sharapova vs. Daria Gavrilova

In Miami, Gavrilova stunned Sharapova in the first round. Clearly, Sharapova was hurt and she was extremely erratic, but nonetheless the 21-year-old was gutsy and aggressive when the most important points came. Being able to reach the semifinal here shows she can really play. She might be short, but she is super fast and can crack the ball.

However, Sharapova loves the clay now and she was lethal and beating Victoria Azarenka 6-3 6-2 in the quarters. When the Russian is playing that well against the former No. 1, you know that she is very confident. Credit to Gavrilova for being here and upsetting Sharapova the last time, but the five-time champion wants revenge and she will crush the youngster in straight sets.

Sydney: Great tournaments, but dropping like flies

APIA INTERNATIONAL SYDNEY — The historic venue has had quite the past three days. Who wouldn’t want to come to Sydney? It’s one of the most attractive cities in the world. A gorgeous beach, the harbors, the restaurants, music, drinks – oh and some fine tennis courts, which date back to 1885.

Unfortunately, the tournament is the week before the Australia Open and that hurts.

Yes, the 2000 Olympic site is problematic because it’s way outside the city, but so what: if you love tennis, then find your way out there. Yes, the tournament needs improving and it is, but if you want to watch some excellent players, and then go out, sit down, and enjoy the players bashing away.

But the problem now is that many of top players are very wary about how they feel before the Australian Open. Two weeks prior, some of the top players will go all out to win a tournament, thinking that they will have a week of practice before Melbourne starts.

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Venus on the rise. Photos by Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Take Roger Federer, Milos Raonic, Maria Sharapova and Ana Ivanovic — all reached the final of Brisbane and fought as hard as they could. The same goes for Venus Williams and Caroline Wozniacki in Auckland, and David Ferrer and Tomas Berdych in Doha. They all reached the finals. How about Stan Wawrinka in Chennai and Simon Halep in Shenzhen? They both won.

By Tuesday in Sydney, they were dropping like flies.

Federer and Lleyton Hewitt came out to play an exo in downtown in Sydney and that is just fine. Wozniacki, however, retired in her first match as her left wrist was painful. Halep had a sore stomach and pulled out. Madison Keys won a match and, then in the second round, her right shoulder hurt and she retired.

Had the Aussie Open not started next week, they may have continued on. In fact, both said they didn’t want to take the risk because of the Slam. So why play in the first place? If you are going to enter, you are supposed to give it all out. If you are not going to, then why bother?

How about the men’s in Auckland this week? Ferrer, Gael Monfils and John Isner all pulled out at the last moment. David said he was hurt, the defending champ Isner says that he was tired after playing the Hopman Cup and who knows what personal reasons Monfils had? When your top guys aren’t there, are the fans really going to want to come? Not as much, that is for sure.

Yes, if you become injured just prior to the Aussie Open, then that stinks. But you can actually play well during the week before and dominate the Aussie Open. In 2012, Vika Azarenka won Sydney and went one to win her first Slam by grabbing the Australia Open title. Former No. 1 Hewitt won Sydney 2000-2001 and 2004-2005.

It is plausible, as long as the players stay healthy physically and psychologically, to win it all, both the warmups and the Slams. Then the fans will keep coming back, cheer loudly, during day, and during night.

OTHER NOTES

Here’s the good news: Juan Martin del Potro took down Fabio Fognini 4-6 6-2 6-2. On Tuesday, he was very shaky in the first match he played since 10 months due to his sore left wrist. On Wednesday, he was flying high.

“I was nervous yesterday, not today,” he said. “My first match was too many sensations before getting to the court.  Today I did like normally, like a normal match.  He was the favorite for sure, but I played very calm.  I never give up, even losing the first set. I think the crowd also help me to keep fighting and enjoy all of the things too much.”

Guess what? On Wednesday, the Auckland got smacked again when Roberto Bautista Agut withdrew and Tommy Roberdo pulled out. Ugh.

The Italian Simone Bolelli bested second-seed David Goffin 6-3 6-3. We will quickly see how good the Belgian will be this season; a great results would be reaching the fourth round of the Aussie.

Angie Kerber beat Davia Gavrilova 6-7(6) 7-6(2) 6-3 in a match that began around 12:33 AM (Wednesday) & finished at 03:09. It’s very rare to start playing past midnight. It’s simply too late. Wait until the next day.

There are some very good players left in Sydney. The Czech Karolina Pliskova didn’t look tired and wiped out Carla Suarez Navarro 4-6 6-4 6-0. Don’t forget that Pliskova played Azarenka for more than three hours in Brisbane. She has almost cracked the top 20 and she is rising. She has a real shot to reach the final.

Tsvetana Pironkova won the tournament as a qualifier last year and here she goes again; she did not receive a wildcard (what a shame), so she went out and won three matches in the singles qualifying. Now she has won three more matches, besting Barbara Strycova 6-4 6-1.Could she do it again? She faces Petra Kvitova in the semis.

Nishikori raises the bar on his way to the semis

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On to the semis for Nishikori.

LONDON — Milos Raonic was gone even before he started on Thursday, when the Canadian pulled out with a quad injury against Kei Nishikori. Even though Raonic was played very tight against the two younger guys, he knew that Raonic was a bit hurt so maybe he could run into the court him and run him around very quickly.

But he has to face David Ferrer instead, who was in a sub, and while the Spaniard had no chance at moving into the semis, he fought anyway, even if he had not played extremely well this year.

Nishikori was 1-1, taking out Andy Murray and losing to Roger Federer. He had a good chance reaching the final based on his two victories in the round robin, losing only two Federer. He has playing very well and seemingly not thinking about a faceoff with the likes of Djokovic and the Swiss.

The 25-year-old has been the youngest singles player at the ATP Finals this season, not only because he reached the US Open final, but because he knocked off a number of fine players. One was the former No. 4 Ferrer, who he beat him on three occasions and all three sets in Masters Series events: 7-6(9) in Miami; 6-3 in Madrid; and 6-4 in Paris, just two weeks ago.

Nishikori is about as fast as any player, and while he was running and hitting the corners as hard as he could, Ferrer was very good overall and jumping on top of his forehands. Both men can go either which way, but the Japanese is more creative when it comes to his backhand. Ferrer likes to grind out points, but he decided to counterpunch his foe on Thursday. So when Nishikori was banging away, the Spaniard looked calmer and it showed as he kissed his lines and won the set 6-4.

But Nishikori regrouped and he began to charge. He set up inside the baseline, cleaned up his backhands and served with more speed. He decided that — win or lose — he was going to swing as hard as he could. He did and after he won the second set 6-4. From that point, he was flying. He won the match 4-6, 6-4, 6-1, dancing with a big grin.

“It’s never easy playing against David because he’s very consistent from the baseline,” said Nishikori. “If I want to win, I have to do something to break his tennis. From the second set, I was more aggressive. The final set was almost perfect.”

Now Nishikori will play on Saturday against Novak Djokovic, who destroyed Tomas Berdych 6-2, 6-2 and clinched the yearend No. 1 for the third time in four years. Nishikori has said that someday he would like to reach No. 1 someday, but he is a long way off. Still, if he can whip Djokovic, then we will begin to discuss 2015.

What does Murray do after Federer’s demolition?

Andy Murray

Murray must start beating the other “Big 4” to stay in the elite group. Mal Taam/MALT Photo

LONDON – Everyone can have bad days. Every person has experienced one or another. But if you look at the greats in tennis, all of them have admitted that they had a lousy match and learned from it. Or forgot about it. Or just threw it in the trash.

But exactly what will happen to Andy Murray mindset after he went down 6-0, 6-1 to Roger Federer on Thursday in a packed house? Everyone wanted to see their countryman win. He was back and ready to knock down the other best players? But he was not even close. He wasn’t in the ballpark or, in this case, The O2.

Murray has been unable to beat the big guys again. Yes, he has played well enough to beat anyone outside of the Big 4 and he looked pretty well during the fall. He scratched up to No. 5, largely because he outworked David Ferrer in October and early November. But against Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Federer during the season, that was another story this year. Murray entered the ATP Finals knowing that he had gone 0-8 of the three guys this year.

That hurt, but a chance to taking down Federer and Djokovic, and that would have made the season.

Somehow he went all wrong and quickly. Murray whacked the ball in the first four points, but after that, he could not find his rhythm. He was never there. Federer played very well, but he never had to play great, even though it seemed he couldn’t miss his forehands, backhands, slices, rushing into the net, digging in, smashing, and pocketing balls deep.

It did not really matter because Murray couldn’t get anything going. It was impossible to tell what his plans were, because he did not have anything at all. He was so out of it that the fans were shaking and were afraid. Down 6-0, 5-0, somehow Federer made a couple of errors and Murray won a game. One single game to 6-0, 6-1. The fans cheered and laughed. Andy didn’t smile for a second. Federer found it odd, shook his hand and did not to celebrate 6-0, 6-1. So much for classic contests.

“Not so cool because I wouldn’t want to be in that position,” Federer said. “I was happy to get it done. At the end I was happy I didn’t win the second to last game to be quite honest. Yeah, it’s uncomfortable. I don’t know. I don’t like it.”

Murray admitted that he did not play well at all – obviously – and that Federer was quite good. But what has his show for it this season? He won three tournaments, which is fine, but they were not Slams or ATP Masters Series. At a few times in 2014 he looked as though he would return to his normal self. But, as he said, it has been very hard to come back easily after his back surgery.

“The first three, four months were tough,” he said. “It was hard. Going through surgery isn’t easy. Maybe I didn’t appreciate that so much at the time. I found it quite frustrating at the beginning of the year. But then once I accepted that it’s a hard thing to go through, and obviously in the middle of that period I switched ‑‑ obviously stopped working with Ivan [Lendl].

“The French Open [Rafa Nadal] and Wimbledon [Grigor Dimitrov], I played well, but when I got to the semis of the French and the quarters of Wimbledon, I didn’t feel like I played well.

“Obviously tonight,I’m disappointed with those matches. I don’t want to play matches like that obviously.”

Murray is hearted of the fall as he did win Shenzhen (over Tommy Robredo), Vienne (over David Ferrer) and Valencia (over Robredo), but if he is going to have any chance in Australia, he is going to have to change it up. If Murray wants to remain his “Big 4,” he is going to have to start beating them on occasion, especially as the younger players like Kei Nishikori and and Milos Raonic become more formidable foes. Right now, he has to figure out exactly why and what will his answers be. At the very least, he has to work harder than before.

“It’s not a nice way to finish the year,” said Murray. “But I know there’s obviously a lot for me to work on now. I didn’t feel like I was playing that badly going into the match. I’d had some good wins the last few weeks. Had played decent against Milos. So obviously in that respect I know I’m going to have to put in a lot of work on the tennis court, a lot of work in on my game. If I want to start the season, with an opportunity to win in Australia, I’m going to have to put in a lot of work, that’s for sure.”

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