The Picks in Rolex Monte-Carlo, Sunday, April 16

Andrey Rublev
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Andrey Rublev over Holger Rune
That was quite a day on Saturday, when Holger Rune out-lasted Jannik Sinner 7-5 in third set. He could have folded, as he had early  in the year, but on the court, he is playing so physically. Rune can run for hours, and he can also mix it some terrific forehands, and his backhands. He also can crack his first serve, and he can also read when he is returning. Last year, all together, Rune was rising up, much faster, but in the start of the year, he lost his way.

Rublev did beats Taylor Fritz in the third set, when he began to smack the ball, very deep, and he would also be extremely consistent, finally. The Russian tries  to mash the ball, pretty quickly, but now he can a victim. In the third set against Fritz, he decided to knock him out in the third, and he kicked his chin.

But Rune said, “I expect for myself to push full. It’s the last push, it’s the last match of the tournament. Obviously [Rublev] had three sets today as well, so he must be feeling the legs a little bit, I hope. It’s going to be great. We played each other twice. It’s 1-1 head-to-head, so it’s going to be interesting, for sure.”

Yes it will be. Without a doubt, Rune is playing very wold,  but on Saturday, he had to play around three hours. That could be too much, and  Rublev will win the tournament in three bashing sets.

Matt’s picks

Correct: Andrey Rublev over Holger Rune

Matt’s current week picks

10 out of 16: 62.5% correct

The Picks on clay in Monte-Carlo Masters: Thursday, April 13

Alexander Zverev
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Daniil Medvedev over Alexander Zverev
The Russian has had a tremendous year, on the hard courts, but now he has to stay very aggressive on the clay. Most of the time, Medvedev can rally, side to side, and wait until he has a chance to nail on the lines. However, on clay, it is clear that you have to be patient for a long, long time.

The German Zverev is gradually back, on the court, as the No. 2  became hurt, he had to stay for a while. Just like with Medvedev, Zverev almost won the 2020 U.S. Open, but he could not do it. Zverev can be very steady, and also, he can crush the ball with his forehand and his backhand. Mentally, he is fragile, so if he wants to go back into the top five, he has to measure up.  Zverev will continue to play better, gradually, yet Medvedev is right there, who wants to be No. 1 this season. Medvedev will defeat Zverev in three, brutal sets.

Novak Djokovic over Lorenzo Musetti
The Italian appears to be  playing a decent match, given that this year, he has been mediocre, at best. The 19-year-old did throw in some terrific contests in 2022, but then he went down, fast. Against the No. 1 Djokovic, Musetti has to play almost perfectly to upset him. The Serbian can do almost everything, but his forehand can miss it during the rallies. His backhand is super steady, and his return is phenomenal. It will be a huge opportunity, to upset Djokovic, but Musetti is still not ready to reaching into the top 10, yet. Djokovic will win in two, hard sets.

TWO OTHER QUICK PICKS
Matteo Berrettini will upset Holger Rune in three sets, as they are both struggling, but the Italian wants to rise, ASAP. … Hubert Hurkacz has had a pretty good year, but on the clay, he cannot handle it, yet. Therefore, Jannik Sinner will win it,in two sets over Hurkacz as he has played amazing at Indian Wells and Miami. Mr. Rising.

Matt’s yesterday picks

Correct: Holger Rune over Dominic Thiem
Stan Wawrinka over Taylor Fritz

Matt’s current week picks

3 out of 6: 50% correct

The Picks on clay in  Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters: Wednesday, April 12

Stan Wawrinka
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Stan Wawrinka over Taylor Fritz
The American returns to play on the dirt, and while he really likes the hard courts, he had improved a lot, but during the clay last year, he has been so-so. Now it is time to measure up. Fritz can hit with his fast forehand, and his bashing backhand. He can also be patient, but others time, he can be to distracting.

Clearly, the 38-years-old Wawrinka is aging, but the Swiss has played some amazing matches, on clay, when he won the 2015 Roland Garros, stunning  Roger Federer. His one-handed backhand is so heavy, with huge spin, and his forehand is also hard, and at times, when it is flat. However, he is little bit slower, and he has lost a number of matches. But with that, now in the spring, he will make a huge effort to show the fans that he can actually turn it on. Yes, Fritz is the better players on the hard courts, but on the clay, it is still Wawrinka, who will win in three, jarring sets.

Holger Rune over Dominic Thiem
This is super interesting that Thiem played his best match this year, easily beating Richard Gasquet. The Austria grew up leaning how to play on the clay, and gradually, he improved his heavy forehand and his backhand. However, he was hurt, and he lost control. Yes, he is darn smart, on the court, but the former 2020 U.S. Open champion started to push the ball, rather than making the attempt to hit it close to the lines.

The 19-year-old Rune has not playing well, hardly at all. He has won some decent matches, but he has not reach into the final in 2023, losing early at Indian Wells and Miami. The good thing is that last year in the fall, he was on fire,  when he won Paris, stunning Novak Djokovic. This week, he has decided that even if he loses,  at least he can make some different strokes, and to be much more focus. Rune is trying to be confident again, which means that while he knows that Thiem can grind it, all over the place,  he can out hit him. The No. 9 Rune will win it in two brutal sets.

Matt’s yesterday picks

Correct: Novak Djokovic over Ivan Gakhov
Correct: Stefanos Tsitsipas over Benjamin Bonzi

Matt’s current week picks

2 out of 4: 50% correct

The Picks on clay in Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters: Tuesday, April 11

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Novak Djokovic over Ivan Gakhov
The current No. 1 is finally back, after missing  at Indian Wells and Miami. He is healthy, physically, but he could not because he refuses  to be vaccinated, against the COVID-19. That might be controversial, and it really is, but now on the court, he is ready to win another title. His terrific first serve, his amazing backhand, and his fiery return makes him the favorite.  “I’ve done more training on clay, which is positive if you think about the clay season,” said Djokovic. “I’ve not had much success in Monte Carlo in the past two seasons. I haven’t played great tennis here, so I’m hoping this year I can start the clay season better than previous years and build my form.”

Perhaps he does, and while he absolutely likes playing on the hardcourts and the grass, Djokovic has been pretty darn good on the slippery  clay.

The Russian Gakhov is almost out of know where, as he is ranked No. 198, which  is way back. He is 26-year-old, and he has gone to many challengers. The one, fine positive was  he recently won Girona, Spain. He must have been thrilled. However, how is going to out-hit against Djokovic, who was won 21 21 Grand Slams? That is impossible. The Serbian Djokovic will win in two, easy. sets.

Stefanos Tsitsipas over Benjamin Bonzi
The Greek has been injured, as the No. 3 lost three tournaments very early at Rotterdam, Indian Wells and Miami. Even last year, the aggressive man rarely lost early when he was ready to grab a tournaments, but in February and March, he collapsed. But Tsitsipas does want to start rolling again, just like he did at the 2023 Australian Open, when he reached into the final and he almost won. OK, then, let’s see if he can turn the tide.

The Frenchman Bonzi did go endless at the ATP 250s, when he went into the final at Pune, India, and also in Marseille, France. That was more than decent, and he was thinking that he would shift to move up, but he doesn’t seem to play excellent, month after month. Maybe Bonzi isn’t sure what he has to do, should he thump the ball, early, or just sit near the baseline.

If he wants to upset Tsitsipas, he is going to have to really drive  himself, constantly. Even if he goes, Bonzi will hit some fine shots, but Tsitsipas is sturdy on the court, and he will win in straight, simple, two sets.

Matt’s yesterday picks

Andy Murray over Alex de Minaur

Richard Gasquet over Dominic Thiem

Matt’s current week picks

0 out of 2: 0% correct


The Picks on clay in Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters: Monday, April 10

Dominic Thiem
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Andy Murray over Alex de Minaur
At one point will Murray rise much further again? This year, his first serve, his forehand and his return has improve a good amount, and his backhand has always been nearly perfect. Yes, after he almost retired due to his wrecked ankles, he came back, and while he is not as fast as he once did, but currently, he is more controlling.  For Murray to win another Grand Slam is debatle,  but he still wants to grab another ATP 1000.

He will keep trying again, as  de Minaur wants to win a huge event. He is currently ranked No. 24, which is pretty good, as he has beaten a number of the good players. However, will the Aussie continue to add some terrific shots, and also, to push himself when he has to knock down the tough opponents. He did win Acapulco on the hardcourts, which was tremendous, but then he lost in the first round at Indian Wells and Miami. It looks like he is straining. Murray reached the final in Doha, and he was stringing along, but then he fell down at IW and Miami.  Really, it is toss-up, for both of then, and while Murray doesn’t love on the clay, he will grind de Minaur in three exhausting sets.

Richard Gasquet over Dominic Thiem
The veteran Frenchman won Auckland, New Zealand, in the first week in January. He is 36-year-old, and he wants to play all the time. He does think that when he is on with his heavy, one-hander backhand, he can win more matches. He does that, here and there, but when he goes against the terrific players, then he will lose, much of the time. Gasquet still really likes with the famous clay, and he has won some tough tournaments, but the same thing with Thiem, who won the 2020 U.S. Open. He is still struggling, partially because with his injury, and while he has won just one match this year, he is trying to bring back his phenomenal spin. He started to climb up, on the clay, winning a variety of people, with his super strong legs, and his tremendous variety. However, he is still lost, mentally and physically, so while Gasquet can be his to short, he still will be able to crack Thiem in three sets.

Djokovic is back at Monte-Carlo to win it

Novak Djokovic

It has been a difficult year by the 20-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic but, in Monte Carlo, he will be back and ready to regain his place atop the game.

The Serb recently said that he wants to play, on the court or in the streets. Because of that, he is the heavy favorite to win the ATP Rolex Monte Carlo Masters according to Sports Betting Dime.

Rafael Nadal, Daniil Medvedev, Dominic Thiem and Matteo Berrettini out of the tournament for different reasons. There are a number of players who have risen and they are very hungry.

The 18-year-old Carlos Alcaraz just won Miami and, as Nadal said, he is almost locked in. He can crush the ball, side to side, and he can crack it crosscourt or down the line. When he nails a winner, he pumps his fist constantly, and then the fans go crazy cheering for him. Considering the hot streak he is riding, he could actually win the tournament.

The No. 3 Alexander Zverev is having a so-so year. While when he is feeling fine, then he can be very consistent and lethal. However, the 2021 US Open finalist has not won a tournament this year. But Monte-Carlo is on clay and he could rise up and make a statement.

The Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas is a huge hitter and he can really strike the ball from both wings. Currently No. 5, the tall man can grind it on the court, and he can also slam it when he it is in striking distance. But, he also has not won an event during the last three months of 2022. Maybe he can change the tactics in Monte-Carlo.

The super-fast Casper Ruud of Norway has had a very good season, winning Argentina, and reaching the final at Miami, upsetting Zverev, and finally losing versus Alcaraz. He is pushing himself and last year, when he was playing, there were times when he was not being aggressive. Now when he can, he can kiss the lines.

The same thing goes with Andrey Rublev. When the 24-year-old decided that this year, he would mix up his tacktics. He did a fine job when he won in France and Dubai. In Miami, it looked like he was a little bit tired, but when he arrives in Monte-Carlo, he should be re-freshed and ready to dance.
 
Finally, Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime won a tournament this year at Rotterdam. Before that, he reached at the finals nine times, and he lost, all of them. But he decided to press on, and now he has improved his game, especially his return. The 21-year-old is pretty young, so week after week, he will improve his shot making approach.

There are more people who can go deep in Monte-Carlo like American Taylor Fritz, who won Indian Wells, Cameron Norrie and Jannik Sinner.