The Picks in Rome: Sunday, May 21

Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev over Holger Rune
“I play some of my best tennis when I play the top guys of the world.”

At point will the Russian  Medvedev finally rise into the top of the mountain, once again. He has been darn close, and during his life, he can be confused, off and on the court, but when he begins to understand, then he can raise his game. He can hustle, he can slap his forehand, and he can mix it up with his sizable backhand. Over the past five years, he changed a few things, and also, he has a good tactics, and also, he practices a lot, so he can put together any shot. For sure, his return is decent, but not phenomenal, and at the net, he can bend down, look to see where the ball is going, with a quick decision. Just like many of the young, the top players, they can re-act quickly. The 27-year-old certainly has done that, when he just beat Stefanos Tsitsipas 7-5, 7-5 in the semis, a really important win.

So here is Rune, rising so briskly. When he is running around, he can move quickly, he can flat it out, and drive so hard. He can control his shots, and also, he can flat it out and crush it.

He is ready to win his second tournament at the ATP 1000, especially that in Monte Carlo last month, he out-hit Daniil Medvedev.

“I play some of my best tennis when I play the top guys of the world. I mean, it’s a good time to play your best tennis because you need it against those players I’ve managed to do it many times now,” Rune said. “I think it’s obviously some of the toughest challenges to face guys in top five because they’re obviously some of the best guys in the world. But I play well when I play them.”

He has had a good year, but not fantastic, grabbing some very good wins, and other ones were so-so. He certainly will be ready to wreck the ball when it starts in the rainy Rome, but Medvedev will be more controlling,  and he will win the tournament in three, super interesting set.

The Picks in Rome: Tuesday, May 16

Alexander Zverev
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Alexander Zverev  over J.J. Wolf
It is pretty clear that the German Zverev can be erratic, and he can also lift up high when he is reacting. He does know  that when he is feeling stellar, then he can not to just mix it, but he is pointed. However, he has not played great this season, but he is gradually playing better, due to his injure.

The former Grand Slam champion Boris Becker says that Zverev has to go back to the basics. That is exact what Becker used to do when he was on court.

“That’s in the past, and 12 months later, the stark reality is brutal. That’s the sport. He is fit again but can’t manage to match the form he had a year ago. There are many reasons for that,” he told Eurosport Germany’s Das Gelbe vom Ball. “What is important, and he is always extremely self-critical, is that he realizes this, that he is honest with himself and doesn’t blame bad luck, bad fortune, wind or too hot a sun – but the fact that he doesn’t play enough. I am sure he will address this in his team and then also train better again. In my opinion, Zverev is not playing tennis properly at the moment.”

Now that is a very controversial, but at least he decided to be honest, even though when he was playing on tour, at times, Becker could dismiss his comments. Zverev must have read it, but beyond that he has to out-hit Wolf, who can play vast  when he is on. The American is pretty intense, and he can also be jolly consistent. On clay, though, it will be a huge challenge to out-hit Zverev. Wolf will make the attempt, but Zverev will bash his forehand and win it in a three, super long, set.

Lorenzo Musetti over Frances Tiafoe
The Italian has always been pretty good on the clay, and over the past two months, he has knocked down some very good competitors. The young Musetti can be hitting it hard, pretty deep, with his forehand and his backhand. When he is feeling good, he can smash the ball. However, he still has a good amount to prove that he will add more on his game.

As he said, when he asked about the multi champion Roger Federer, he watched him a lot.  “”I like everything about him, but if I have to highlight one aspect I would say it’s his style. It’s something unique, the combination of fun and elegance, like the ability to play relaxed and calm.” Musetti said. “I try to be like him, I have less control and sometimes I’m more nervous on the court, so I think I can do better if I compare myself to Federer. But I think there are details where we have similarities, for example in movements, which is something I’ve always tried to do since I was a child.”

The same goes with Tiafoe, who always listens to watch many players. On the hardcourts, he has been dominating at times, but recently, he set back, a little bit. On the clay, he has to rally for a long time, until he will has a good chance to rip it on the ball. He may do it, but here in Rome, the fans will be cheering so hard to watch   Musetti  win the match. He will do it, in three, exhausting, sets.

Paula Badosa over Karolina Muchova
Over the past five weeks, the Spaniard finally started to play much better. She still has a substantial improvement on the court, moving around, and really understand where she has to go.  

Badosa revealed some changes that she is planning on implementing. “I see that the players are starting to get to know me, so we have decided to change some things in my game and make tactical adjustments. It is not easy, in the middle of a game, to change the position of return or hit a parallel in a difficult situation, but I’m on that path so I have to continue on that path,” Badosa  said.

Muchova can be very consistent, and she also likes to wreck her backhand. Her forehand is pretty good, but it can also be short, and her first serve can also be huge, but her second serve can be slow. These two have put together some terrific wins, but on the clay in the slow Rome, Badosa will take it in three, bizarre, sets. 

Veronika Kudermetova over Qinwen Zheng
Last year,  in September in Tokyo, Zheng beat Kudermetova  5-7, 6-3, 7-6(3). It was a super close match, when the young player put together some  incredible rallies. She is very quick, she is also pretty steady, but she still has to hit the ball harder. Plus, the 20-year-old really likes on the hardcourts, but on the clay, she is still figuring it out.

Kudermetova appears to be better week after week. She played a fine tournament in Madrid, reaching the semis, beating a couple very good players. However, in the final, Iga Swiatek  smoked her. Kudermetova is a big hitter, but her forehand can be out of control, but when the Russian is locked in, then she can smack it into the corners. She still needs to be more consistent, and they both do, but on Tuesday, Kudermetova  will win it in three, hardcore, sets.

Jannik Sinner over Francisco Cerundolo
Even on clay, the Italian is much more consistent, he swings hard with his forehand and his backhand, and also, he is better at the net. He is young, and he does get upset, but when he is really thinking about what he is going, then even after he made a lot of errors, Sinner can re-set it. He can be intense, and so is Cerundolo, and he does hit some huge shots, into the corner. This year, he has won a couple, tough, excellent matches, beating Felix Auger-Aliassime and Casper Ruud. However, he also lost pretty early.

The No. 8 Sinner has put together some fine matches on the hardcourts and while he still has to figure out on the clay, he is gradually improving. Sinner will win it in three, grinding, sets.

The Picks in Rome: Saturday, May 13

Madison Keys
Mal Taam/MALT photo

Victoria Azarenka over Madison Keys
They have played each other for a long time, as they are not so fast, running, but the reason why is because they have gone deep at the big tournaments. They totally crush the ball, with there forehand and there backhand. They can be very consistent, at times, and they also can whack it when they are returning.

Azarenka has won two Grand Slams at the Aussie Open, and Keys reached into the 2017 US Open, also. Clearly, they both think that if they are healthy, then they can try to go deep again, but they will have to prove it, now. On clay, Azarenka can slip when she is trying to nail her forehand, but she can always try to stand up and nail it with a winner. Keys can also crush her backhand, but she still becomes injured, a lot, so because of the, Azarenka will win it in three, sizable, sets

Alexander Zverev over David Goffin
The German has played so many marathons, when he is being so patient, and also, when he can change it up. Zverev has gone very deep a lot, on the hardcourts, especially, and also, he has been more than respectable on the clay. Yes,  he is not played very well as he has, because he ruined his leg, so to come back can be very difficult.

However, he will continue to battle, and so does Goffin, who will continue to play until he has to finally stop. The former No. 7 is a master at times, with his top-spin, as well as he can flat it out, and drive it. He is pretty good in the slow clay courts in Rome, so he does like to rallies, and he also can smash it, close to the lines. However, Goffin is sliding down, and because of that, Zverev will win it in two brutal sets.    
 
Coco Gauff over Marie Bouzkova
Each day, it is hard to understand how well the American is going. She can look terrific, and it appears that she is improving each week, but then she falls backwards. It is a conundrum. Gauff has a marvellous forehand, and she is also very sufficient at the net. She also is pretty decent with her return. The Czech Bouzkova can be decent, when she is locked in, but that is rare. Yes, last year she won Prague in July, and it appeared that she would go far. But after that, the current No. 38 didn’t go deep at all, so while she wants to move up the latter, that doesn’t mean that she can go further in Rome. Gauff will win in three, super long, sets.

Matt’s yesterday picks

Correct: Novak Djokovic over Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Stan Wawrinka over Grigor Dimitrov
Sebastian Korda over Roman Safiullin

Matt’s picks from Rome

4 out of 10, 40% correct

The Picks in Madrid: Sunday, May 7

Carlos Alcaraz
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Carlos Alcaraz over Jan-Lennard Struff

Remember at the 2021 Roland Garros in the third round when Struff had to face Alcaraz, a new 18-years-old player. He was good, but the Spaniard had to work, all the time. There, in Paris, Struff beat him in three, interesting, sets. Then next year at the 2022 Wimbledon,Alcaraz began to rise, and he edged  Struff  6-4 in a classic, five-setter in the first round. It was a great match, but then the German knew that he could see that soon enough, the teenager would become excellent. And he is now, as he has now won 20 matches in a row. Not many people have done that before.

“We played in Roland Garros when he was 18. For a young player like him, he changed so much in this time. When we see what he achieved in this last two years, it’s just amazing,” Struff said. “I managed to beat him in Roland Garros. From the matches as well in Wimbledon, it was very intense match, he’s a complete player. He has a lot of weapons. He’s serve and volleying, playing strong from the baseline, serving well, he has a dropshot. He’s very fast. He’s a great athlete. … I have to go for it otherwise I will have no chance. I will try my best to beat him and win my first title.”

Struff is a huge hitter, and his confidence is finally rising again. Will that help against the Spaniard?

Alcaraz can smash his forehand and his backhand. He can throw in different shots when he serves, and for the millionth time, he can charge into the net. Even more than that, his dropshot is amazing.

Alcaraz may be the favorite, but Struff took down Stefanos Tsitsipas, the No. 3, in the quarters. Then he really showed himself in the semi against Aslan Karatsev. However, just like the multiple champion, Rafa Nadal, Alcaraz is pretty darn good on clay. Because of that, Alcaraz  will win it once again, kicking down in two, tough, sets.

Matt’s yesterday pick

Iga Swiatek over Aryna Sabalenka

Matt’s picks from Madrid

8 out of 14, 57.1% correct

The Picks in Madrid: Saturday, May 6

Iga Swiatek
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Iga Swiatek over Aryna Sabalenka
It was going to happen in the final at Madrid, as the No. 1 and the No. 2 believe that if they played so consistent, then they can beat anyone. However, they both think that if they play well and throw in some deep returns, then the rallies will be close.

They both have two huge forehands and their backhands are super vigorous. Swiatek has a better clay record, and she won Roland Garros twice by being patient and also crushing the ball. The challenge is really on, again.

After she won the 2023 Australian Open, Sabalenka was finally satisfied. Before last year, she looked pretty good but also she struggled, especially at some events. She can really run, and she can also push herself, from the backcourt where she can snag some winners. At the end of year in the WTA Finals in Fort Worth, she cut down over Swiatek in three sets on the hard court. Then two weeks ago, on indoors on clay in Stuttgart in the final, Swiatek battered Sabalenka in two sets on clay.

“Really different,” Sabalenka said, “but I really like it. I don’t have to rush things. I just have to wait for my opportunity and I just have to take it and go for it. … I really want to have this revenge. I think I would just play with more passion. I wouldn’t rush things. Yeah, I would just go one more time, try better, and fight for this title.”

Then Sabalenka will attempt to go for it with some hard shots. But, if you recall, at Rome almost one year ago, Swiatek destroyed her

On Saturday, Swiatek will win it in three sets, with some electrifying points.

Matt’s yesterday picks

Correct: Carlos Alcaraz over Borna Coric
Jan-Lennard Struff over Aslan Karatsev

Matt’s picks from Madrid

8 out of 13, 61.5% correct

The Picks in Madrid: Thursday, May 5

Maria Sakkari
Ron Cioffi/TR

Stefanos Tsitsipas over Jan-Lennard Struff
These two have had some close matches, with Tsitsipas winning three, , and Struff grabbing two, one on clay, and another of the hardcourts, at the ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati. The veteran Struff has had a decent year in 2023, as when he started, he was way back, with his ranking which was No. 152. He must have been fighting.

However, he began to play different, and manage it. Tsitsipas can also be more tolerant, and he does what kind of shots. He will think occasionally, and when he does, the strong man will decide which way to go. Tsitsipas will nail more than a few aces with his serve, and he will win it in two, famed, sets.

Iga Swiatek over Veronika Kudermetova
The Russian Kudermetova has had a surpassing tournament, as over the past year, she would play spectacular, and then, she would lose it, on the court. But as she said, “I step on the court, I try to do my best. I try to improve. That’s give me confident. When I step on the court, I know behind of my shoulder I have a lot of good practice, a lot of good matches. It’s give me really belief in myself.”

She must, but now she has to upset Swiatek, who is totally into it. She knows how to caper on the ball, and she can also be nursing.“ Having both things combined and being able to do both, like, Rafa [Nadal] or Novak Djokovic], they can play great in defense and be patient and also they can attack well. I think this should be the goal of every tennis player,” Swiatek said. “That’s why we are working on both, but for sure there are many girls right now who are playing fast serve and fast first ball. I can’t really tell you, but I don’t mind.” She apparently is playing happy, with no nerves. There for, Swiatek will win it in two, smart, sets.

Zhizhen Zhang over Aslan Karatsev
Who would have known that Zhizhen Zhang was going to win again, even though he had not won hardly anything anything at all in the the ATP Tour, but he is this week, and now he will out-hit over Aslan Karatsev in two sets.

Aryna Sabalenka over Maria Sakkari
Aryna Sabalenka is rippled along, as her forehand is massive again. This week, Maria Sakkari played some fine tennis, with some touch, and she will try to slide and bring it back, but Sabalenka will attack her backhand, and put together in the corners. Sabalenka will win it in two sets.

Matt’s yesterday picks

Correct: Carlos Alcaraz over Karen Khachanov
Correct: Iga Swiatek over Petra Martic
Correct: Borna Coric over Daniel Altmaier
Jessica Pegula over Veronika Kudermetova

Matt’s picks from Madrid

5 out of 8, 62.5% correct

The Picks in Madrid: Friday, April 28

Carlos Alcaraz over Emil Ruusuvuori
The Finn has had a respectable year, with a few impressive wins, but he has yet to reach into the top 30, and maybe he will, eventually, but he has to change his strokes, here and there. At least Ruusuvuori played pretty well in Miami, beating Botic van de Zandschulp, and in Barcelona, he took down  Frances Tiafoe . Yet how will he stun Alcaraz, as the Spaniard just won Barcelona? He has only lost two matches this year, and he has been winning a lot of some very good players. He is almost jolly aggressive, and he can chuck it in with variety. Maybe he is mentally tired, but he is a teenager, so he will be fresh. Alcaraz will win it in three, engaging sets.
   
Andrey Rublev over Stan Wawrinka
The three-time Grand Slam champion is aging, and he is not as fast as he was, but on clay, he can really control him. Wawrinka has an amazing backhand, with a tremendous rotation, and also, he can nail it crosscourt, or down the line. When he is on, he can be great to watch him. However, Rublev is now more settled, on the court. He can try to pin him down, and swing so hard with his stout forehand and his backhand. Yes, Rublev still isn’t great enough on clay, but year after year, he can understand what he has to do. There for, Rublev will clip Wawrinka in the third set to win it, with some savage shots.

Martina Trevisan over Eugenie Bouchard
The Canadian Bouchard looked terrific years ago, almost 10 years ago in 2014 , when she reached the semis at the Aussie Open, then in the final at Wimbledon, and then, in the semis again at the US Open. She was trucking along, as her forehand and her backhand were huge. But then next year, she started to disappear, and she did get hurt, a bit, but then she did not know why she couldn’t hit the balls in the lines. Then she was essentially gone.  Bouchard stopped playing, and she also decided to go on TV. She is actually pretty decent. And then, she started playing again, so now she is trying to go upwards.

Someone can write a book, about why she was so good, and also, barely mediocre. The good thing was in Madrid, she qualified, and now she was to face Trevisan, who really likes playing on clay. Yes, the No. 20 has not had a very good year, but the Italian can spin her shots, and she can also mix it up. Even though Bouchard wants to go fast, and she also likes to play on the dirt, but it will take her a few months before she can really focus.  As a result, Trevisan will win it in three, bizarre sets.

Vika Azarenka over Alycia Parks
The two-time Grand Slam champ Azarenka is addicted on the hardcourts, but in Europe, over the years, she can be wild on the clay. She is used to it, but perhaps she has not won more Slams is because when she is on court, she can hit some sole points, way out. Azarenka does think about her life, and that is terrific, yet the 33-year-old won’t really change at the net, and also, her return, too. However, she can be intense, as does the American Parks, who is ready to crush the ball. On the hardcourt, she can move forward, and she can bend down, and shoot it up.  But she is not there, yet, on the lurking clay. Azarenka will win it, in two honestly, decent sets.

Matt’s yesterday picks

Correct: Dominic Thiem over Kyle Edmund
Correct: Aryna Sabalenka over Sorana Cirstea
Elina Svitolina over Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Matt’s picks this week

2 out of 3: 66.7% correct

Ka-boom: Can the American men go deep on European clay?

Taylor Fritz
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Taylor Fritz: “Maybe not all the other, older generation of Americans wouldn’t want to play so much on clay, but it’s important.”

The American men have not won the ATP 1000 in Madrid was in 2002, when the Grand Slam eight time champion Andre Agassi won it on clay. He had been No. 1, and he also won all four, winning the Australian Open, Roland Garros, Wimbledon, and the U.S. Open. But with the current men, no one has won it, and it has been almost 20 years. The last one was Andy Roddick, who grabbed it at the 2003 U.S. Open.

In a sense, it is somewhat decent, as over the years, many people thought out in the county began to really like tennis. Not just in Switzerland, and Spain, but also, with Serbia, as Novak Djokovic has won 21 Grand Slams. He can play spectacularly, as did the now retired Roger Federer, as well as Rafa Nadal, who is still playing.

Unfortunately, both Djokovic and Nadal are hurt so they cannot play in Madrid this week. But the No. 10, Taylor Fritz, is playing and he has had a pretty good year, but not phenomenal. He has yet to reach into the semifinals in the Slams, but at least he had won an ATP 1000 at the 2022 Indian Wells. He was rising, and at times, he looks amazing, yet on the dirt, he has yet to go deep at Barcelona, Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros. He wants to go further, and he wants to, but he is not quite there, yet.
 
“Well, look, if you want to be one of the best players in the world, you really do have to perform on all surfaces. I think what other choice do you have? You have to embrace it,” Fritz said. “You have to try to enjoy playing on it, try to get better, try to have the best results possible. I’m still obviously improving a lot, but it’s always been important for me to try to play a serious clay court schedule. Maybe not all the other, older generation of Americans wouldn’t want to play so much on clay, but it’s important if you want to be top-5, top-10 player to be able to perform on every surface.”

Not only did Agassi finally became so much better in the clay courts, but Jim Courier and Pete Sampras both won at Rome. In the early 1990s, Courier won Roland Garros twice, with some long, hard points. You can also throw in Michael Chang, another American, who when he was so young, he flew up into the sky and nailed it, winning with some incedible matches, and he won Paris in1989. That was mind blowing. Those four combined for 27 Grand Slams. Ka-boom.

Right now, with the current men, it is possible that someday, someone will win a major. But we are not sure. As Fritz said, that the Russian Andrey Rublev has become so steady. Last week, he won the ATP 1000 Monte Carlo. “He’s very consistent. He’s made lots of quarters, semis, and I think this is his third final. It’s kind of just whoever plays the best on that week” Fritz said. “He has been unlucky. But yeah, obviously he’s 100% at the level of a player who you would expect to have one and he’ll have one soon.”

The Picks in Stuttgart and Barcelona: Monday, April 17

Jelena Ostapenko
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Veronika Kudermetova over Coco Gauff
The Russian has not had a good year, even though she is ranked No. 13. If you look at that, you would think that she is playing fantastic, and last year, she threw in some amazing shots. However, this year, Kudermetova has lost a ton of contests, from with the very good players, or the mediocre competitors. Perhaps she is mentally down. However, she can blitz her forehand and her backhand, and she is also very aggressive. She did beat Gauff in Doha in three sets on the hardcourts, returning very well. The American did play extremely well in the Fed Cup in Florida, but she immediately had to fly across the ocean, so while she is a teenager, it can be taxing. If she can wake up, then she can crack the balls, but in reality, Kudermetova will out-hit her in third dramatic set.

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Jelena Ostapenko over Emma Raducanu
Ostapenko is so, so up and down, there are times when she is on fire, and there are other times when she is totally checked out. The Latvia can create her shots, and she can also spring it. Ostapenko can also be very steady, throwing with some deep shots. Raducanu can also engage the rallies, and then when her backhand is right there, and she can really go for it. The problem with Raducanu is she is not deciding what she can do at the match, to be much more patient, and toss it all around. Eventually, the Britain will find herself, but the former 2021 US Open champion is losing a lot, still, so Ostapenko will win it in two odd sets.

Diego Schwartzman over Yibing Wu
Here is huge toss-up, as Wu recently won Dallas, beating John Isner. Wu is only 23-years-old, so clearly he has improving before last year, he won a ton of matches, mostly in the small tournaments, but look at this: a year ago, he was ranked No. 1749, and now, he is ranked No. 56. That is extremely good. However, Wu has to face versus Schwartzman, when the Argentine beat him in straight sets in Miami. Wu can be super consistent, but Schwartzman can mix it up a good amount. Schwartzman will win in three, long, sets.

David Goffin over Feliciano Lopez
Both of these two are aging, really fast, now. The Belgian Goffin was ranked No. 7 in 2017, playing some tremendous ball, with his terrific one-hander and with some heavy topspin. Goffin did manage to reach the final at the ATP Finals, and he did win six titles, but not the biggest ones. The Spaniard Lopez is still playing, even though he is 41-years-old, which is a little bit crazy in the singles, but many people just want to play until they pass, because they just want to go walk on the court and have another fine day. Lopezis ranked way down, 593, which is going down and down, but at least in 2015, he made a career high of No. 12 with his fun one-handed back hand, and at the net, too, That is a pretty darn good. Yes, Lopez is OK on the clay, but Goffin is still better than him and he will beat him in three, wicked, sets.

The Picks in Rolex Monte-Carlo, Sunday, April 16

Andrey Rublev
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Andrey Rublev over Holger Rune
That was quite a day on Saturday, when Holger Rune out-lasted Jannik Sinner 7-5 in third set. He could have folded, as he had early  in the year, but on the court, he is playing so physically. Rune can run for hours, and he can also mix it some terrific forehands, and his backhands. He also can crack his first serve, and he can also read when he is returning. Last year, all together, Rune was rising up, much faster, but in the start of the year, he lost his way.

Rublev did beats Taylor Fritz in the third set, when he began to smack the ball, very deep, and he would also be extremely consistent, finally. The Russian tries  to mash the ball, pretty quickly, but now he can a victim. In the third set against Fritz, he decided to knock him out in the third, and he kicked his chin.

But Rune said, “I expect for myself to push full. It’s the last push, it’s the last match of the tournament. Obviously [Rublev] had three sets today as well, so he must be feeling the legs a little bit, I hope. It’s going to be great. We played each other twice. It’s 1-1 head-to-head, so it’s going to be interesting, for sure.”

Yes it will be. Without a doubt, Rune is playing very wold,  but on Saturday, he had to play around three hours. That could be too much, and  Rublev will win the tournament in three bashing sets.

Matt’s picks

Correct: Andrey Rublev over Holger Rune

Matt’s current week picks

10 out of 16: 62.5% correct