The Picks in Rolex Monte-Carlo, Sunday, April 16

Andrey Rublev
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Andrey Rublev over Holger Rune
That was quite a day on Saturday, when Holger Rune out-lasted Jannik Sinner 7-5 in third set. He could have folded, as he had early  in the year, but on the court, he is playing so physically. Rune can run for hours, and he can also mix it some terrific forehands, and his backhands. He also can crack his first serve, and he can also read when he is returning. Last year, all together, Rune was rising up, much faster, but in the start of the year, he lost his way.

Rublev did beats Taylor Fritz in the third set, when he began to smack the ball, very deep, and he would also be extremely consistent, finally. The Russian tries  to mash the ball, pretty quickly, but now he can a victim. In the third set against Fritz, he decided to knock him out in the third, and he kicked his chin.

But Rune said, “I expect for myself to push full. It’s the last push, it’s the last match of the tournament. Obviously [Rublev] had three sets today as well, so he must be feeling the legs a little bit, I hope. It’s going to be great. We played each other twice. It’s 1-1 head-to-head, so it’s going to be interesting, for sure.”

Yes it will be. Without a doubt, Rune is playing very wold,  but on Saturday, he had to play around three hours. That could be too much, and  Rublev will win the tournament in three bashing sets.

Matt’s picks

Correct: Andrey Rublev over Holger Rune

Matt’s current week picks

10 out of 16: 62.5% correct

The Picks on clay in Monte-Carlo Masters: Thursday, April 13

Alexander Zverev
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Daniil Medvedev over Alexander Zverev
The Russian has had a tremendous year, on the hard courts, but now he has to stay very aggressive on the clay. Most of the time, Medvedev can rally, side to side, and wait until he has a chance to nail on the lines. However, on clay, it is clear that you have to be patient for a long, long time.

The German Zverev is gradually back, on the court, as the No. 2  became hurt, he had to stay for a while. Just like with Medvedev, Zverev almost won the 2020 U.S. Open, but he could not do it. Zverev can be very steady, and also, he can crush the ball with his forehand and his backhand. Mentally, he is fragile, so if he wants to go back into the top five, he has to measure up.  Zverev will continue to play better, gradually, yet Medvedev is right there, who wants to be No. 1 this season. Medvedev will defeat Zverev in three, brutal sets.

Novak Djokovic over Lorenzo Musetti
The Italian appears to be  playing a decent match, given that this year, he has been mediocre, at best. The 19-year-old did throw in some terrific contests in 2022, but then he went down, fast. Against the No. 1 Djokovic, Musetti has to play almost perfectly to upset him. The Serbian can do almost everything, but his forehand can miss it during the rallies. His backhand is super steady, and his return is phenomenal. It will be a huge opportunity, to upset Djokovic, but Musetti is still not ready to reaching into the top 10, yet. Djokovic will win in two, hard sets.

TWO OTHER QUICK PICKS
Matteo Berrettini will upset Holger Rune in three sets, as they are both struggling, but the Italian wants to rise, ASAP. … Hubert Hurkacz has had a pretty good year, but on the clay, he cannot handle it, yet. Therefore, Jannik Sinner will win it,in two sets over Hurkacz as he has played amazing at Indian Wells and Miami. Mr. Rising.

Matt’s yesterday picks

Correct: Holger Rune over Dominic Thiem
Stan Wawrinka over Taylor Fritz

Matt’s current week picks

3 out of 6: 50% correct

The Picks on clay in  Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters: Wednesday, April 12

Stan Wawrinka
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Stan Wawrinka over Taylor Fritz
The American returns to play on the dirt, and while he really likes the hard courts, he had improved a lot, but during the clay last year, he has been so-so. Now it is time to measure up. Fritz can hit with his fast forehand, and his bashing backhand. He can also be patient, but others time, he can be to distracting.

Clearly, the 38-years-old Wawrinka is aging, but the Swiss has played some amazing matches, on clay, when he won the 2015 Roland Garros, stunning  Roger Federer. His one-handed backhand is so heavy, with huge spin, and his forehand is also hard, and at times, when it is flat. However, he is little bit slower, and he has lost a number of matches. But with that, now in the spring, he will make a huge effort to show the fans that he can actually turn it on. Yes, Fritz is the better players on the hard courts, but on the clay, it is still Wawrinka, who will win in three, jarring sets.

Holger Rune over Dominic Thiem
This is super interesting that Thiem played his best match this year, easily beating Richard Gasquet. The Austria grew up leaning how to play on the clay, and gradually, he improved his heavy forehand and his backhand. However, he was hurt, and he lost control. Yes, he is darn smart, on the court, but the former 2020 U.S. Open champion started to push the ball, rather than making the attempt to hit it close to the lines.

The 19-year-old Rune has not playing well, hardly at all. He has won some decent matches, but he has not reach into the final in 2023, losing early at Indian Wells and Miami. The good thing is that last year in the fall, he was on fire,  when he won Paris, stunning Novak Djokovic. This week, he has decided that even if he loses,  at least he can make some different strokes, and to be much more focus. Rune is trying to be confident again, which means that while he knows that Thiem can grind it, all over the place,  he can out hit him. The No. 9 Rune will win it in two brutal sets.

Matt’s yesterday picks

Correct: Novak Djokovic over Ivan Gakhov
Correct: Stefanos Tsitsipas over Benjamin Bonzi

Matt’s current week picks

2 out of 4: 50% correct

The Picks on clay in Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters: Tuesday, April 11

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Novak Djokovic over Ivan Gakhov
The current No. 1 is finally back, after missing  at Indian Wells and Miami. He is healthy, physically, but he could not because he refuses  to be vaccinated, against the COVID-19. That might be controversial, and it really is, but now on the court, he is ready to win another title. His terrific first serve, his amazing backhand, and his fiery return makes him the favorite.  “I’ve done more training on clay, which is positive if you think about the clay season,” said Djokovic. “I’ve not had much success in Monte Carlo in the past two seasons. I haven’t played great tennis here, so I’m hoping this year I can start the clay season better than previous years and build my form.”

Perhaps he does, and while he absolutely likes playing on the hardcourts and the grass, Djokovic has been pretty darn good on the slippery  clay.

The Russian Gakhov is almost out of know where, as he is ranked No. 198, which  is way back. He is 26-year-old, and he has gone to many challengers. The one, fine positive was  he recently won Girona, Spain. He must have been thrilled. However, how is going to out-hit against Djokovic, who was won 21 21 Grand Slams? That is impossible. The Serbian Djokovic will win in two, easy. sets.

Stefanos Tsitsipas over Benjamin Bonzi
The Greek has been injured, as the No. 3 lost three tournaments very early at Rotterdam, Indian Wells and Miami. Even last year, the aggressive man rarely lost early when he was ready to grab a tournaments, but in February and March, he collapsed. But Tsitsipas does want to start rolling again, just like he did at the 2023 Australian Open, when he reached into the final and he almost won. OK, then, let’s see if he can turn the tide.

The Frenchman Bonzi did go endless at the ATP 250s, when he went into the final at Pune, India, and also in Marseille, France. That was more than decent, and he was thinking that he would shift to move up, but he doesn’t seem to play excellent, month after month. Maybe Bonzi isn’t sure what he has to do, should he thump the ball, early, or just sit near the baseline.

If he wants to upset Tsitsipas, he is going to have to really drive  himself, constantly. Even if he goes, Bonzi will hit some fine shots, but Tsitsipas is sturdy on the court, and he will win in straight, simple, two sets.

Matt’s yesterday picks

Andy Murray over Alex de Minaur

Richard Gasquet over Dominic Thiem

Matt’s current week picks

0 out of 2: 0% correct


Rinderknech: Any player not in juniors top 10 should go to college

Frenchman Arthur Rinderknech lost in Monte Carlo, and he has yet to crack into the top 45. It was taken him a long time to be more harmoniou

He is playing better. This season he has beaten some good players, all in the top 30s, upending Jannik Sinner, Karen Khachanov, Alexander Bublik and Denis Shapovalov.

Over the past four years, the 26-year-old finally matured. 

“I didn’t have to start on the tour at 18 years old when I was not good enough and not mature enough, professionally speaking, to play on the tour. But I had the maturity to think about it and decide to go to the United States, which was a very good choice,” said Rinderknech, who went to Texas A&M. “It gave me some time, and I have a diploma now that is a security for my future, so I can play relaxed now, knowing what I have. Now I’m starting at 22, 23 years old instead of 18, so it helps me go through the steps more easily, because I experienced many other things than only professional tennis.”

He decided not to try to go straight into the ATP Tour because he was not ready then.

“In my opinion, any player who is not top 10 in juniors should go to college. It’s a very clear-cut opinion. Unless you are [Carlos] Alcaraz or [Jannik] Sinner or if you are in the very top best players in juniors, you need to go to college in the U.S,” Rinderknech said. “Because if you’re not top 10 in juniors, there are many uncertainties as to your future in the professional tour. Even players that were 10, 13, or even 8 have disappeared from professional tennis after that. There are hundreds of them. Others are just getting lost playing the futures for years, so instead, I would advise them to go to the U.S. But each one has his own goals. If they want just to party, they can party in the U.S. too, but they will forget about tennis. But it’s up to them to decide about their future. They should take control of their lives and not only depend on mommy or daddy and the coach. So it’s a clear-cut opinion, but of course you need to have good advice from people who know about what they are talking about so you get good advice to choose your college.”
 
Rinderknech will play to qualify in Madrid and Rome. However, he will certainly play at Roland Garros in May.

MORE
Novak Djokovic is still trying to be more comfortable. Yes, he is No. 1, but in his last three tournaments, he didn’t win the event. He was not allowed to play the Australian Open, so he went to Dubai, and he lost to Jiri Vesely. Then in Monte Carlo, he went down to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-1. No big deal as when you are not playing, it takes a while to remember what to do. So he went to Serbia, where he was born, and he looked solid, but not fantastic. He managed to grind his way into the final, and it looked like now he would out-hit the very good players like Andrey Rublev.

Djokovic looked consistent, but in the final’s third set he became injured, and Rublev leaped on him, winning the title 6-2, 7-6 (4), 6-0. Yes, Djokovic doesn’t love the clay, but he really likes it. So when he goes to Madrid, maybe he will be slightly better.

Will the No. 8 Rublev wins a Grand Slam this year, or an ATP 1000? He has won 11 titles, but he hasn’t gotten into those top tier events yet. Last year he reached the final in Monte Carlo and Cincinnati. Now it is time to boost up in Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros.

Stefanos Tsitsipas won Monte Carlo in some tough matches, and he played spectacular, but he decided to play Barcelona, and that was too tough. Eventually, he tired against the terrific young player Carlos Alcaraz. But they will face each other again. ..

However, the 18-year-old Alcaraz is now ranked No. 9, which is very unusual. The other Spaniard Rafa Nadal was already playing terrific at the age of 19, winning his first Roland Garros in 2005. It is certainly possible with Alcaraz, but he has to continue to improve more, as there are times when he doesn’t work the points. It should a blast to see him rise in Madrid.

Novak Djokovic loses first 2022 match in Europe

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic lost at Monte Carlo on Monday, the first time that he had played on court after Dubai. There, in February, he lost in the quarters against Jiri Vesely. In April, Djokovic could not shake it off, and he went down against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-1.

The 20-time Grand Slam winner decided not to take the COVID-19 vaccine, and because of that he could not play at the 2022 Australian Open. He also could not play Indian Wells and Miami, which was a huge challenge mentally.

When he is on court, he can be lethal and so steady. But when you cannot play, even while he can practice all the time, the 34-years old gets irritated and frustrated.

“I’m disappointed. No one likes to lose,” he said. “I didn’t like the way I felt physically in the third. I just ran out of the gas completely. Just couldn’t really stay in the rally with him. I mean, if you can’t stay in the rally, not feeling your legs on the clay, it’s mission impossible. So, I don’t like that.”

Before he went down against Davidovich Fokina on clay, he had played only three matches this year. Now, after the loss, that is four contests in three-and-a-half months. That is nothing for him.

“Obviously I miss competition. I still feel motivation to be on the tour and compete with young guys and try to challenge the best players in the world for the biggest titles,” Djokovic said. “Obviously last four, five months have been really challenging for me mentally and emotionally, but here I am and I try to leave all of that behind and move on.

“Clay court is the surface in which I grew up in Serbia and played many years only on that surface actually, and historically hasn’t been my most successful surface, but I have had some big success on clay. Of course, Roland Garros win last year is still fresh in my memory, so I try to use that as an inspiration to kick-start the clay court season best possible way.”

He plays only the biggest events on clay except in Serbia where he grew up. His backhand might be the best ever, where he is almost perfect cross-court, and down the line is very strong, too. He can smack his very good forehand, and he can return very deep. His eyes can focus and be very smart on court.

This year, he has to play on clay anytime the tournaments allow him. The question is: Will the tournaments allow an unvaccinated player?

Djokovic has to continue to raise his game. He knows that when he lost to Davidovich Fokina, he was mediocre at best in the third set. He knows that.

“I always believed that I could come back and win the match, and I stayed there even though a lot of things were against me in terms of how I felt on the court. Game-wise, physically I was just far from my best,” he said. “So, of course, in those types of conditions and circumstances, then you have to really work two times more than you normally would. I played a clay court specialist. He had a match already on center court a few days ago. I expected this match to be really tough match, physical battle, and that’s what it was. Unfortunately, I’m on the shorter end of the stick, and my week ends here. I have to try to be optimistic and build to Roland Garros, where I want to peak.”

Nadal played great at Monte Carlo, but will he stay healthy?


These days, you never know how Rafa Nadal will play on court because over the past nine months, he was hurt all the time. Even in the first three months, in 2018, he could barely play. 

However, in Monte Carlo, he looked pretty healthy. But at 100 percent? It was hard to tell until he walked on the court, he was ready to play for hours, he ran fast, he crushed the ball, so heavily, and he was so confident. He must have been so happy that he was playing in the clay again. 

In Monte Carlo, he won five matches to win the title, and he did not lose a set. He won 10 sets (60 games), and he only lost 21 games. That is damn good. He blew out Dominic Thiem, he pushed Grigor Dimitrov into the ground, and out muscled Kei Nisihikori 6-3, 6-2 in the final. Nadal: the best clay courter, ever.

But will he stay healthy over the next two months? He has to, because if he gets hurt again, the 31-year-old will have to go back to the drawing board. I would think that he has to be very careful this season. In 2017, on clay, he dominated, but after he won Roland Garros for the 10th time, he went down pretty quickly. His knees where shot. He cannot beat himself again as he beats up everyone else in the spring, clay-court season. 

Nadal is playing in Barcelona this week, which he has won many times. It should be tough, though, as he could face Nishikori again, in the third round, and possibly, in the quarters. He could play against the 12-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic or against Feliciano Lopez. They are all long-time veterans, but regardless, Nadal has always known how to be patient. Plus, now, he can move forward and attack.

Djokovic has been really struggling, even though he showed some resurgence in Monte Carlo, but he will be super consistent again. It will take a few more months, though. He won’t go away.  

Here is a good comparison, according by the ATP, of Roger Federer, Nadal and Djokovic:

Grand Slam titles/losses:
RF 20/72 
ND 12/52
RN 16/51

In the ATP 1000s: 
RF 27 titles
ND 30 titles 
RN 31 titles

The ATP Finals:
RF 6 titles 
ND 5 titles
RN 0 titles

Total “Big 3” titles:
RF 53
ND 47
RN 47

By the end of the year in late November for the ATP Finals at the 02 Arena on indoor hard courts, Nadal’s knees are pretty shot. Maybe in seven months, Nadal will be 100 percent, healthy wise. He hopes. 

Nadal, Djokovic: back on track in Monte Carlo


Rafa Nadal won easily in Monte Carlo, crushing Aljaz Bedene 6-1 6-3. He loves clay — he is an addict — and when he walks on the court, he is already locked in. In the last 10 years, he rarely — and I mean rarely — loses. That’s it. He is the best clay court ever, hands down, but he gets hurt a lot, so now, he is vulnerable. However, this week, if he is healthy, he is the favorite. But, there will be some close matches.  
 
Novak Djokovic finally played well, and it has taken a year — or two years — the Serbian has said. He was pretty lost at Indian Wells and Miami. In Monte Carlo, over the last three days, he is faster, comfortable, and powerful.

Will it last? I would think so, but he has to be patient because the 12-time Grand Slam champion isn’t there yet. He beat Borna Coric 7-6(2) 7-5, which was huge, because Coric has been very confident over the past two months. Coric is very steady, and the same goes with Djokovic. They played for two-and-a-quarter hours, but the Serbian reached back and nailed it.

Good for Marin Cilic, who beat Fernando Verdasco 6-3 7-6(4). Verdasco does like clay, but Cilic is up and down. However, one this day, he was calm and, when he had the opportunity, he moved forward. His first serve is massive, and his forehand is gigantic. But to win it at Monte Carlo? I cannot see that.

Way to go by Kei Nishikori, who bested Daniil Medvedev 7-5 6-2. Nishikori really wants to play as much as he can, but he does get hurt a lot, so he has to be careful….

That is a great win by the Frenchman, Richard Gasquet, who blew out Diego D. Schwartzman 6-2 6-1 in the second round. He has an amazing backhand. … Canadian Milos Raonic is still in there despite nagging injuries. Hopefully, his arms are better, and he won’t think about how sore it is. He is a terrific player, but he doesn’t love clay. On grass and the hardcourts, sure, he can go very deep in the summer. But in the spring, he cannot win in the big events. Including Monte Carlo.

Notes on a Draw Sheet: Nadal rising

Nadal is recovering well, but can he beat other excellent players?

Rafa Nadal won another clay tournament. Just like in Monte Carlo, his victory in Barcelona gives him 10 titles in two clay events.

In the final, he crushed Dominic Thiem. As the Belgian said, there was no way he could win when the Spaniard kept smashing into his backhand. The young Thiem can wail his strokes from behind the baseline, hitting it as hard as he can, but his one-hander gets pushed way back in the court, and it was rare that he could nail it on the lines.

Against Nadal over the past 12 years, few can do it.

The 30-year-old has now won 51 titles on clay. Rafa clearly loves it, and although he hasn’t won a Grand Slam in almost three years, but he is trying very hard. Without a doubt, Nadal has to improve his backhand and his second serve — if he wants to. But we will find out very soon because he will play at the ATP 1000 at Madrid next week and then Rome.

Hopefully, he will get a chance to match up with Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray (who lost against Thiem in the semis) to find out whether he has actually improved enough to bring down the best. If he does, the 14-time Grand Slam champion will be the favorite at Roland Garros. If he does not, at least five players can win it all — Nadal, Roger Federer, Djokovic, Murray and Stan Wawrinka.

Siegemund wins but Pliskova stalls

Out of nowhere, the 29-year-old Laura Siegemund shocked Kristina Mladenovic 6-1 2-6 7-6(5) to win Stuttgart. Two years ago, she was out of the top 100. In fact, for 10 years, she was unable to get into the top 100 at all. In 2015, finally, she did, swinging much harder than she did. It has taken her a very long time but at least she can finally say that when she is on, she can beat anyone. Well, most of them …

Mladenovic overcame Maria Sharapova in a tough marathon in the semis. The Frenchwoman is looking much better than she did before; she has always been a little bit slow and she hits some crazy shots, but when she comes to the net, she can put it away. This year, she may finally reach the top 10. But at Roland Garros she may be to nervous to make a statement.

How about Karolina Pliskova, who loses against Siegemund in Stuttgart. But, on Monday in Prague, the Czech lost in the first round against Camila Giorgi. The No. 3 Pliskova is excellent some days, and, on other days, mediocre at best. Sure, she can become No. 1 this year, but more importantly, she has to win a major. Or next year, because some people don’t think that a couple former No. 1s deserved to be super great. Look at Caro Wozniaki, who was No. 1 for almost two years, but she was unable to win a Grand Slam. Maybe she will someday —or not.

Right now, Pliskova has to do the same thing: at Roland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open, where she has to shake off her nerves and go for it.

Anything odd about Berdych’s French Open chances?

History suggests Tomas Berdych is one to avoid following at the French Open this year, but his performance in reaching the Monte Carlo Masters final hinted he should not be quickly dismissed when it comes to Roland Garros.

The Czech was beaten in three sets by Novak Djokovic in Monte Carlo and he pushed the world No.1 all the way, with unforced errors not helping his chances of pulling off a shock victory. But, in what was the first tournament of the European clay-court season, it offered plenty of encouragement for Berdych when it comes to the French Open, where he has a mixed record.

Berdych’s best run in Paris came in 2010 when he beat a bad-tempered Andy Murray in the last 16 before losing in five sets to Robin Soderling in the semi-finals. Last year, he advanced to the quarter-finals before being beaten in straight sets by Ernests Gulbis.

However, the fascinating feature of Berdych’s French Open record is that he tends to struggle at Roland Garros when the year ends in an odd number, which on that basis does not make positive reading for his 2015 chances.

In 2013, Berdych suffered a first-round defeat by Gael Monfils and he was beaten at the same stage by Stephane Robert in 2011 after holding a two-set lead. Another five-setter was Berdych’s undoing in 2009 in the first round when he recovered from a two-set deficit to level before going out against Simone Bolelli. And, in 2007, Berdych was beaten in straight sets in the first round by Guillermo Garcia-Lopez.

So, if Berdych can overcome that slightly unusual statistic and progress past the first round this year, then his price of 33/1 with betfair to win the French Open at the time this article was produced could look generous, if he lands in the right half of the draw. That is exactly what happened in Monte Carlo, where Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer were all in the other side of the draw. Berdych was in control of his quarter-final before Milos Raonic retired and he thrashed Roger Federer’s conqueror Monfils 6-1, 6-4 in the semi-finals.

Following his defeat by Djokovic in the final, Berdych acknowledged he is missing one step in his clay game, but he has time to work on that as he is missing the Barcelona Open.

He reached the final on clay in Madrid three years ago, losing to Federer, and has won tournaments in Palermo and Munich on that surface. Berdych has also reached three finals already so far this year.

Against the top players, Berdych does often fall a little short, but he has the game to test the best and he has a chance of reaching his second Grand Slam final after losing to Nadal at Wimbledon in 2010 when he had beaten Federer and Djokovic in earlier rounds.


This article was submitted by Betfair and was not written by TennisReporters.net writers.