The picks at Roland Garros: Wednesday, May 31

Andrey Rublev
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Jessica Pegula over Camila Giorgi
The hustling Italian Giorgi can slap the ball with her backhand, her flat strokes, and her spin. She is quick, she can angel, and she tries to hit it deep, here and there. However,  she doesn’t smash the ball constantly, and Giorgi  will throw some key errors.  She hasn’t not won a Grand Slam, or ever she has never reached into the  semis. This time she wants to try again, but there are a number of excellent players who can go deep at the majors. 

Pegula is also trying, too. The No. 3  has had a very decent year, as she beat a number of  very good players. However, she has gone deep a lot, but she has also lost in some key matches. She is very steady, and she can really hustle. In the doubles, her returns and at the net, she has improved a lot. However, she only has won just one title, so clearly the veteran wants to win a major, but she needs to do it pretty soon. Pegula is aware that she needs to be patient, until she breaks her down. The American, Pegula, will win in two extended sets.

Andrey Rublev over Corentin Moutet

Here at Roland Garros,  the Frenchman Moutet  played a very good season in 2022, winning a number of contests, on the hard courts, and in the clay, too.  His backhand is somewhat solid, and he can mix it up, a lot. He still is trying to bash his forehand, and with his first serve, too.

The powerful Rublev plays a lot, during the events, and when he LOCKS it in, he can chuck a lot of winners. He has won 13 tittles, which is terrific, but the current No. 7 has yet to reach into the semis at all of the Grand Slams. Right now, he believes that when he is stable, then he can shatter the ball on the lines. Rublev will win it over Moutet in three routine sets.

Leylah Fernandez  over Clara Tauson

The Dane Tauson is very young, but this year she is starting to beat a number of good players. She has a lot of work to do in the summer, but she has been practicing and playing almost everyday. She can be steady, and she can also swing pretty hard, with both sides.
In 2021, Fernandez reached the US Open, and she was totally locked in. But after that,while she can still be loyal, but on court, she can become confused. This year, she hasn’t beat anyone in the top 30. She won a few decent contests, but she has to re-set and add some new shots. Tauson is ready to win another match, and Fernandez will win it in three bizarre sets.

Novak Djokovic over Marton Fucsovics

The Hungarian is aging, but over the past few years, he has changed his tactics. His forehand is more powerful, and his backhand is deeper. However, how can he stun Djokovic? The Serbian has won 22 Grand Slams, and he has beaten everyone, with his phenomenal backhand, his return, and his terrific serves. When he is on, he will rarely miss it, but this year, he has cut some odd strokes. But he does want to win Roland Garros for the second time, so he will be charging hard. Djokovic will win it in three comfortable sets.

As he said, “I want to believe that I am ready. Grand Slams are my priority; they motivate me the most. The best possible news is that I don’t have any physical issues, knock on wood.”

Matt’s yesterday picks

Correct: Gael Monfils over Sebastian Baez
Correct: Taylor Fritz over Michael Mmoh
Victoria Azarenka over Bianca Andreescu
Shelby Rogers over Petra Martic 

Matt’s picks from Roland Garros

7 out of 12, 58.3% correct

The Picks on clay: Charleston and Houston: Wednesday, April 5

Paula Badosa
Mal Taam/MALTphoto


Leylah Fernandez over Paula Badosa (written before play began)
The 20-year-old Fernandez can look startling, but then, she will stop where she is going. She is very briskly, running, and she can be fitting, but she doesn’t go enough to smash the ball.  At the 2021 U.S. Open, she reached the final, and it looked like that she is going close to the top, but now, she is ranked No. 51. That is surprising, and currently, she has to do a lot more work.

The Spaniard Badosa had a decent  year in 2022, as she finally realized that if she can kick down the excellent players, when she could grab a lot of matches.  She looked very good, in the three months, and then after that, she began to slink. This year,  she was respectable in Adelaide, but after that, she did very little. Fernandez has come close to winning some matches in 2023 against the very terrific players, many times, but she lost. However, she will nail some fine lines. This time the Canadian Fernandez  will win in three long sets.

Shelby Rogers over Caty McNally
Can Rogers come back and won more matches this year? It is up in the air, because while she can compete, the 30-year-old has no answers when her forehand and her backhand can be to short. Yes, she can be adventurous, but she doesn’t fool enough. However, at some point, she will start to surge again.

At the end of the year, McNally won Midland, an old tournament. Very few of the top players will play in early November, but there are other people who are trying to move up the latter, especially with the young set. The 21-year-old  has scored a couple good wins over the past 12 months, but she isn’t there yet to knock down with the fantastic players. Because of that, Rogers will win in two sets.

Frances Tiafoe over Steve Johnson
At this point, Tiafoe is struggling, inside the courts. Of course he can beat just about anyone, except on the clay, when he is still is not comfortable when he is crawling. Of maybe not, as on the hardcourts, he is almost all of it. Off court, he is a very nice person, but when he is competing, he can frustrate himself. However, he can crash his forehand, his backhand and his first serve. It is really hard to see that he can win a major title in Europe on the clay, and on the grass in England, but at least this week in Houston, he is the top seed. So right now, he really has to bring it.

As we wrote yesterday, Johnson does like to play almost every week, and he does have some solid stokes, but Tiafoe is more potent and fierce. Tiafoe will win in two sets.

John Isner over Gijs Brouwer
Where is Isner going? Yes he will play until he realizes that it is time to stop, because the 37-year-old is playing OK, in the singles, but this year he has not beat a player in the top 40. The former No. 8 American did win some tremendous matches, but physically he is slowing down, when he is running. However, he does think that when he continues to play more, he will begin to throw in his massive serves, and his forehand, too.

His first match in Houston will be against the against the Netherlands,
Brouwer, who has yet to crack the top 100, ever. However, he wants to. given that he is 27-year-old. If he does that, the No. 123 will have a candle. Isner will win in two tiebreakers, once again.

Matt’s current week picks

Correct: Jason Kubler over Fernando Verdasco 
Correct: Steve Johnson over Facundo Bagnis 
Correct: Victoria Azarenka over  Sloane Stephens
Claire Liu over Bernarda Pera

3 out of 4: 75% correct


TennisReporters.net 2021 year-end review: top 25-21, women

Jennifer Brady
March 8, 2019: Jennifer Brady (USA) defeated Caroline Garcia (ESP) 6-3, 3-6, 6-0 at the BNP Paribas Open at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, California. ©Mal Taam/TennisClix/CSM

25. Jennifer Brady
Right out of the gate in 2021, the veteran sprinted early, reaching the final at the Australian Open. She played spectacularly versus Karolina Muchova in the semis. In the final, she went down to Naomi Osaka in straight sets. Yes, the Japanese plays amazing deep in the Slams, but at least the American looked very good, even though she could have returned better. After that, she did little the rest of the year, likely because she was injured, and she stopped playing after August. She can hustle, and she is very stout, so when she starts again, in 2022 she will have to rehab and look ahead.

24. Leylah Fernandez
Almost out of nowhere, at the U.S Open, she went ga-ga. She was on fire, smashing the ball from both sides, and she was totally intense. Following up on her Monterrey victory, she ran and ran, into the corners, deeper, and very concentrated. She is only 19, so in the next few years, she will continue to grow, to understand how that the other players tend to hit the ball. The older she becomes, the smarter she will be off and on the court.
 
23. Belinda Bencic
The Swiss can look fantastic, and other times, she mentally went down. She is darn good, and she also had some fun variety. She plays a lot, and when you watch her, she can be pissed off. Yes, a few years ago, her body was very hurt, so she stopped for months. When she came back, it was almost zero, and she had to rethink her path. She does look sharp at times and get back into the top 10. She is going to have to much more find a bigger game or she will never win a Grand Slam.

22. Coco Gauff
The 17-year-old had a very good year, growing up quickly on the court. Sure, she has a lot of learning to do, but she gets better all the time. Her forehand and her backhand are strong, and she can flatten it out or spin it when she has to. Her first serve is pretty good, and, she is decent at the net. She is climbing up the hill of the rankings. However, she has lost a number of matches this year due to inexperience and lack of focus when the match isn’t going her way. In 2022, she will be even more intelligent, and thoughtful.

21. Elise Mertens
This player from Belgium put together some high level tournaments early on, but later, she collapsed, here and there. The veteran can be very consistent, or she can hit the ball when it is too short. She does like to hustle, and also in the doubles, she returns very well. But really, if she wants to go to the Grand Slam final for the first time, she is going to hang it out.

The upstarts: Medvedev and Raducanu win 2021 US Open

At the start of the 2021 US Open, Daniil Medvedev looked confident. For the first time at a Slam, when he walked on the court for two weeks – regardless when he was hitting the ball, even if he missed a few shots – he believed that over a few hours, he could win.

The Russian knew that for the most part, even if he was a little bit nervous, he would continue to be mature and continue to improve his powerful game. He finally did it, when he over-came the famous Novak Djokovic 6-4, 6-4, 6-4.

No. 1 Djokovic had won 27 matches in the Slams this year. But, on Sunday, he was tired, mentally, and he could not produce enough winners. He was barely mediocre. Plus, Medvedev was so consistent, and getting a lot of depth on his shots.

“I do feel sorry for Novak because I cannot imagine what he feels,” said Medvedev. “For the confidence and for my future career, knowing that I beat somebody who was 27-0 in a year in Grand Slams, I lost to him in Australia, he was going for huge history, and knowing that I managed to stop him definitely makes it sweeter and brings me confidence for what is to come.”

Medvedev conquered with so much variety, with his vast serves, and into the corners. He can rift his forehand, and in Flushing Meadows, his backhand became gaping and with a lot of spin, or flat it out.

Qualifier Raducanu goes 20-0 in sets
On Saturday, the very young Emma Raducanu won the US Open, too. Talk about being so consistent, and very smart on court. She is swift, she can rip her forehand and her backhand, and she can change it up, also. She beat Leylah Fernandez 6-4, 6-3. Canadian Fernandez had a wonderful tournament, but again, in the final, she was a little bit slow.

“I think it shows that the future of women’s tennis and that the depth of the game right now is so great,” Raducanu said. “I think every single player in the women’s draw definitely has a shot of winning any tournament. So, I hope that the next generation can follow in some of the steps of the greatest legends, for example, [the former No. 1 player] Billie Jean [King] right here.”

Raducanu was focused and you could see it in her eyes. She became superior this year, with her potent serves, her returning, her forehand and her backhand. She came through qualifying – a first for a Slam winner – and didn’t drop a set. No woman will eclipse a 20-0 record of set wins in a major.

On Saturday, the locked-in Raducanu hit it so firmly, very fast and reliably, too.

From now until the end of the season, Medvedev and Raducanu could win a number of matches.  Next year on the hardcourts at the 2022 Australian Open, they will draw a huge amount of attention to see if they can win another Slam.

Will the pressure slow them down, especially for Raducanu who has never been in such a large spotlight? Post-major wilting has happened before. Let us watch, and then we will know how whether they will win a lot, or just go home. And sleep.

Finding the fault lines: Djokovic wears down his opponents

Novak Djokovic

At what point can you take down Novak Djokovic in a 3 out of 5 setters? At the four Grand Slams in 2021, he has won 25 matches, so if you want to find a way to out-hit the Serbian, you would have to play almost perfectly. 

On Monday, Djokovic beat Jenson Brooksby 1-6 6-3 6-2 6-2. In the first set, the American played as well as he could, and he hit the corners. With his forehand and backhand, he was striking the ball and sprinting around the court. But, in the second set, it began to change. Djokovic knew that it he could continue with some long rallies, then he thought that Brooksby would eventually tire, even if just a bit. Djokovic believes that each hour, many of the players can mentally sink. Their legs begin to wobble. So, running back and forth, Brooksby is not fast anymore. 

Eventually, Djokovic won it, and he was pleased. The 20-year-old Brooksby has had some terrific wins over the past two-and-a half months. During the fall, he will gain ground and continue to move up the rankings.

That was quite a long, long match when Maria Sakkari edged Bianca Andreescu 6-7(2) 7-6(6) 6-3 in three-and-a-half hours. Sakkari rarely gets tired — at all — but in the third set, Andreescu began to cramp. She kept trying, but the Greek was cheering, running, bending down and smashing the ball. Last year, she began to change, not about her speed, but what she had to do something different. Years ago, she could not break into the top 20, because she would get frustrated and she would back up. In time, though, she began to move forward and hit it harder

On Wednesday, she will likely to do it again, but can she pull it off one more time? She will know, one way or another.

NOTES 

Carlos Alcaraz looked worn out in his quarterfinal match versus Felix Auger-Aliassime. But, not worn out to approach the net to retire at 63 31 (ret). The 18-year-old Spaniard had both legs wrapped during the match and cited a leg injury for retiring. Auger-Aliassime becomes the first Canadian man to reach a US Open semi. 


In another teenage coming-of-age stage, Leylah Fernandez prevailed over Elina Svitolina 6-3 3-6 7-6(5). The Canadian, who turned 19 just yesterday, cracked numerous down-the-line forehands for winners. She got a break on the penultimate 

point, as her pass bumped off the net cord. Svitolina, who continues to find obstacles in her pursuit of her first Grand Slam final, can only wonder why she can’t find clear sailing in a draw opened up by numerous upsets. … 

Alexander Zverev is so consistent, each time now, and this year, his return is now deeper and he can mix it up. He took down Jannik Sinner 6-4 6-4 7-6(7), which was a tough match, but he focused, which is why he won. …

The U.S. men and women are gone now, including Reilly Opelka, who lost to Lloyd Harris. Opelka has had a fine year, but he needs to return substantially better. If he wants to reach in the ttop 10, he has to improve day after day. The reason why 
Matteo Berrettini had moved up, into the top 10, because the Italian knew he had to be more aggressive with his return. …

It was very impressive that Belinda Bencic was thoughtful and powerful, when she beat Iga Swiatek. You would think that if she sticks with a plan, then maybe she can go much further, maybe in the final? …

Another teenage shocker is Emma Raducanu, who came out blasting, and crushed American Shelby Rogers, who was erratic and also exhausted. However, Brit Raducanu is young and she is very patient. Plus, she can find the lines. She will be around for a long time. …

Karolina Pliskova likes the hardc ourts, and she beat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. Still the question persists if the former No. 1 can take home a major. Later in the second week, she has to step it up, and be more steady. Once, she reached the US Open and this year’s Wimbledon finals, and she was close, but in the third set, she was so-so. If you get there again, grab it. 

Time to pivot: Frances Tiafoe & Leylah Fernandez are upset winners

Lylah Fernandez

There are times when Frances Tiafoe was erratic. He would be frustrated and knock the balls way out. But, on Friday right, at the US Open, he was spectacular when he really needed to be.

It was a marathon at the Arthur Ashe Stadium, and very late at night, he pulled it off, upsetting  Andrey Rublev 4-6 6-3 7-6(6) 4-6 6-1.
 
“I love these matches. This is why you work,” Tiafoe said. “This is why you put the time in, to play the best guys in the world. These are the matches I get up for. I want these guys. I want to put it on my resumé. I came out today and I was like, ‘I’m going to beat him.’ I grew up with this guy, I don’t fear any of these guys. Let’s keep going.”

Yes, the American Tiafoe has lost a lot of five setters. But, as the years go by, a player learns and can becom smarter. Tiafoe has a massive first serve, and a gigantic forehand. His backhand is pretty good, too. However, he is ranked outside of the top 50, so he has a tremendous work to do. Including advancing at this year’s US Open.

 “I’ve lost a lot of five-setters. My five-set record isn’t great,” he said. “[But] I can’t not bring it. I’ve lost a lot of tough matches on this court. … I wasn’t going to leave this court without a win tonight.”

TOP WOMEN FALL
Naomi Osaka has won four Grand Slams, but this year, she seems perpetually downcast. She lost against the very good young player, Leylah Fernandez, 5-7, 7-6 (2), 6-4. The Japanese is a huge hitter. The reason why she was No. 1 was because she was so focused. Not anymore, as in the match. She missed some easy swings. She was foiled and she actually smashed her racket to the ground.

The 18-year-old Fernandez is coming up strong, with some impressive forehands and backhands.

Yet on Friday, Osaka was depressed again. She does not know when she will return this year.

“I feel like for me, recently, when I win, I don’t feel happy, I feel more like a relief. And then when I lose, I feel very sad,” Osaka said. “I don’t think that’s normal. This is very hard to articulate. Basically, I feel like I’m kind of at this point where I’m trying to figure out what I want to do, and I honestly don’t know when I’m going to play my next tennis match. I think I’m going to take a break from playing for a while.”

But how about Fernandez, who on court, she is already clever. “Finally, I found a pattern to her serve,” Fernandez said. “I just trusted my gut and hit the ball.”

Ash Barty took a big fall in the third set. Up two breaks to Shelby Rogers, the top seed lost 6-2, 1-6, 7-6(5). Statistically, the Australian had a slight lead in winners/unforced errors, aces and just about every category. But, she made too many mistakes in a final-set tiebreak while the American crowd propelled South Carolina’s Rogers to victory.

How about Garbine Muguruza is getting substantially better, beating Victoria Azarenka in three sets. Muguruza likes to ram it, side to side, and she can be excited and totally into it. But Azarenka let herself be dominated. While she did win two Slams, her second serve can be almost awful. When she lost match point, she double faulted. Ugh.

How about the 18-year-old Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz, who stunned No. 3 Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-3 4-6 7-6(2) 0-6 7-6(5)? Alcaraz could be one of the best players for the next 15 years. The Spain is athletic, he changes the shots, he can shatter it. Alcaraz can hit it softly, well-placed drop shots right over the net. He is coming hard.

NOTES
Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime was pumped up in the fifth set and then he can inhale, then run, very hard. At the end, he knocked off Roberto Bautista Agut 6-3 6-4 4-6 3-6 6-3. Another one, who is gaining ground. …   Former No. 1 Simona Halep came up big, and maybe she won’t go far in the second week, but she is so steady. She beat Elena Rybakina 7-6(11) 4-6 6-3.

Jack Sock’s marvelous forehand was zipping past Alexander Zverev in the first set. But, he had a medical timeout on his right leg after the first game in the second set. The injury stalled Sock’s revival and he resigned in the fourth set.

In one of the best matches of the year, Angelique Kerber beat Sloane Stephens 5-7 6-2 6-3. The German was spot on and super steady. Stephens looked good, over the first two sets But, in the third set, she became nervous and lost her control. Maybe Kerber will continue to be so smooth. Then she will have a real shot to win her fourth Grand Slam. But she has to continue to pivot.

Canadian Leylah Fernandez wins first title in Acapulco

Lylah Fernandez

During the Grand Slams, everybody wants to play. If they can, they try to knock off the best. But, if they can lose early, at least they have faced the challenge of the top-ranked players.

The good news is that there are other tournaments where, if you can rise up, and win it, then many fans will know who they are.

Over the weekend, Leylah Fernandez won the tournament in Acapulco, beating Viktorija Golubic in the final. Clearly, she is quick, steady and bangs with a lot of depth. She also likes to attack at the net. The teenager had gone to Mexico to live with her family, but she was born in Montreal, so she had a lot of training. She is now ranked No. 72. She still has a long way to go, but she was improved over the past month.

“It’s always been part of my game, trying to go to the net,” Fernandez said. “I was just going out there, having fun on the court, and I wasn’t thinking too much about the consequences. I just went there and tried to execute what I’ve been training.”

Russian Daria Kasatkina won the St. Petersburg Ladies Trophy She is 23 years old, and she is now ranked No. 42. Three-and-a-half years ago in 2018, she was No. 10. But then she fell. It wasn’t because of an injury, it was in her head, essentially, with her life. But now, she is more patient, and and mature.

Not only when she just win in Russia, but in January, she won the Phillip Island Trophy. In 2019, at Indian Wells, she upset Sloane Stevens, Caro Wozniaki, Angie Kerber, and Venus Williams — all Grand Slam winners. Kasatkina did lose in the final, going down again Naomi Osaka. If she refocuses, then she will be totally back.


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The former No. 2 Vera Zvonareva is currently ranked No. 122. She has to get into the top 100 and then she will be in much better shape to get into main draws.

Another Russian veteran, Svetlana Kuznetsova, is now ranked No. 35, Years ago, she won two majors, the 2004 US Open and the 2009 Roland Garros. She has a lot of spin, and she will stay out there for a million of years. She wants to have one more chance to knock off all of them, to win singles title. The last time she won it was in 2018 Washington. That is almost four years ago. She has to believe that she can conquer a field one more time.