The Picks in Rome: Wednesday, May 10

Fabio Fognini
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Andy Murray over Fabio Fognini
The three-time champion Murray recently said that if he can, he will play Roland Garros if he is feeling good, with his sore body. That is up in the air, but the most important thing is to prove it, with himself, to play excellent, in Rome. Yes, it is pretty darn slow, but it is a historic atmosphere, so almost everyone wants to show from the fans that he is a superior person. Murray can be, early on, but he has to face Fognini, another aging person, but when he was on, the Italian put together some wonderful points. He is a grinder, and his forehand and his backhand with a lot spin. But if you look at him now, he is losing a lot, as his game is slipping. Therefore, Murray will win it in two, long, sets.

Gregoire Barrere over Brandon Nakashima
The American Nakashima can mix it up, a lot, and also, he can attempt to nail his forehand. He is pretty steady, too, but he can also leave it short. Barrere is very interesting, the way he plays, and where he is going on the court.The Frenchman veteran has yet to reach the top 50, but he is hoping that one day, he can upset a few significant players. He did reach the semis in Rotterman, and he was somewhat consistent, but in order to snare of a bunch winners, then he will have to point it on clay. Barrere will play very appropriate, and win it in three, very long, sets.

Marcos Giron over Roman Safiullin
The Russian Safiullin has had a decent year, as when he won a bunch on the qualifying, which it is difficult, but none the less. You just never know what is going on, to finally be better, or just stay there. In Madrid, he qualified, beating Tommy Paul. He must have been happy, even though he lost in the second round. Giron had a good year in 2022, but currently, he has been UP and DOWN. He does like to lash his backhand, and he can also, hammer his forehand. Right now, he knows that he has to try to return better, and crush his first serve. This time, Giron will overcome Safiullin in two, hammer, sets.

Jaume Munar over Thanasi Kokkinakis
The Aussie Kokkinakis is very competed with the doubles, but in the singles, he is still finding the real action. He can be inconsistent, and his forehand is decent, but not great. Still, though, he is excellent at the net, and also, with his return. The Spaniard Munar is another man who wants to reach the top 50. Not the top 20, or the top 10, but the top 50 is good enough. He did win a couple matches at Madrid, so apparently, he is feeling good. Munar does like on the clay, and he plays it all the time, so against Kokkinakis, he will push him in the wall, and win it in two, engaging, sets.

The Picks in Barcelona, Stuttgart, Munich: Wednesday, April 19

Caroline Garcia
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Barcelona Open Banc Sabadel
Carlos Alcaraz over Roberto Bautista Agut

Last year, the former U.S. Open champion Alcaraz crushed him 6-2 6-0
at Indian Wells.  At that point, the young man was on fire, and the very good veteran had a lousy day. But now they are on clay, as the Spaniards are hoping to be highly consistent, and to pulp there forehand and there backhand. Alcaraz can be a little bit wild, yet he really does not care because he believes that in the next point, he can find it on the lines.

The 35-year-old has had some wonderful years, but Bautista Agut is slipping back, so Alcaraz  will win it in two, long, sets.

Stuttgart
Caroline Garcia over Tatjana Maria
This will be a very tough match as they have played each other twice, on the grass and on the clay, and the Frenchwoman won it two times, yet it was three sets, and it was pretty darn close. Garcia can romp the ball, running side to side, and also, to change into the net. Maria is 35-years-old, but she still is pretty fast when she is running. She did win Bogota, which was surprising, but clearly, she wants to keep playing until she will have to retire. The German will change against Garcia, and she does like to mix it up, but in the third set, the Frenchwomen will hit a few terrific backhands and win it in three sets.

Paula Badosa over Cristina Bucsa
At the Australian Open, the Spaniard Bucsa qualified, and then she upset two respectable, but in the third round, Iga Swiatek crushed her. She must have been happy for a little while, but after that, she must have been totally frustrated. Bucsa  can be somewhat proper and she can also really go for it.

The same thing goes with Badosa, who can be a very fun player, on the court, but she is trying to figure out where she has to go. She has won a decent amount of matches, but not enough. The No. 31 Badosa looked pretty decent in Charleston, and she won three matches, so it appears that she is rising again. On the clay, Badosa will win it in two, lengthy sets.

Munich
Marcos Giron over Alexander Ritschard

They have yet to play each other, and while it is early, they want to get impression. The American Giron has had a so-so year, even though in 2022, he won some fine tournaments. Now, he is struggling, and while he can be proper, but currently, he cannot knock down the very good players — yet. The Swiss Ritschard did have a decent last year, on the hardcourts, but on the clay, he could not move up, hardly at all.  Yes, he can be somewhat consistent, but he cannot hit the ball hard enough. Therefore, Giron will beat him in two decent sets.

Matt’s yesterday picks

Correct: Jelena Ostapenko over Emma Raducanu
Correct: David Goffin over Feliciano Lopez
Correct: Diego Schwartzman over Yibing Wu
Correct: Cameron Norrie over Pavel Kotov
Correct: Denis Shapovalov over Jozef Kovalik

Matt’s current week picks

5 out of 5: 100% correct

The Picks in Miami: Thursday, March 23

Victoria Azarenka
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Marcos Giron vs Cristian Garin
The American Giron can move up the rankings. The former UCLA college champion took himself a while to grow, on court, and now he is ranked No. 71. But that is not enough. While he does hits the shots, constantly, but he is not more aggressive, and touch on the lines. To be able to beat Garin, he has to not only to be patient, but he has to move forward. The South American Garin has had a difficult year, but at Indian Wells he qualified and then he upset the No. 4 Casper Ruud. That was a huge win, but he isn’t quite there,yet. On the hard courts, Giron will win in three long sets

Alex Molcan vs Jordan Thompson
Last year, Molcan was coming around. The Slovakian started going up the ladder, but over the past few months, he dropped, struggling. Now he is ranked top 56. He can be very patient, or when he gets the opportunity, he can swing very hard. He also said that he can win a huge tournament. He is still waiting.

Thompson qualified, which means that he is playing pretty well, but the 28-year-old have lost to many different players. He did have a terrific win, at IW, upsetting Stefanos Tsitsipas. However, he lost in the next round, so the No. 83 is not consistent. Molcan will out-hit Thompson, in the third set, with some very hard forehands.

Victoria Azarenka vs Camila Giorgi
Where is the former two-time Grand Slam champion Azarenka going? To play great, day after day, or stay there for a few days, and then, she will go down, unsure that she can exactly do. She has to prove it once again.

The Italian Giorgi has had a decent season, winning Mexico in February. Yes, she has been there for a long time, but now, even though she can be steady, but to beat most anyone, she has to jump on the ball ASAP. Azarenka did reach the semis at the 2023 Australian Open, so when she is there and healthy, then this incredible player can hit so many excellent winners. But, after Melbourne, she lost early, a lot. In her first match, it appears that she is heathy enough and push Giorgi outside of the wall. Azarenka will win in two sets.

Wednesday’s predictions

Correct: Bianca Andreescu  vs. Emma Raducanu
Correct: Sloane Stephens vs. Shelby Rogers
Andy Murray vs. Dusan Lajovin

Reilly Opelka edged all of them, winning Dallas Open

Reilly Opelka

The American men had all four players in the Dallas semis, which has been unusual over the past five years. But the US guys are gradually improving. Maybe this year, they can go deep at the ATP 1000s. As Marcos Giron said at the Grand Slams, they can go higher and higher.

Reilly Opelka won all four matches and took his third title. He won all six tiebreaks at Dallas out of eight sets he played. Beating John Isner in the semis, he won the longest set tiebreak in ATP history, 24-22.

He has a massive first and second serves. Also, when stroking from the baseline, he can hit it like a storm. The downside is that he is 6-foot-11, so it is difficult to sprint left and right.

Without question, he practices a lot and he also competes in the tournaments nearly every week, so it is both good, and it could be bad.

When you are winning, you will want to play all the time. But, if you are losing early, it is a good idea to not play and really think about what you need to improve. He is ranked No. 20. Last summer, he reached the final at the ATP 1000 for the first time in Canada, upsetting Stefanos Tsitsipas before he lost against current No. 2, Daniil Medvedev.

Clearly, to go into the top 5, Opelka would go jump so high and find a path to beat Rafa Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Medvedev.

In the quarters, Giron beat his good friend, Taylor Fritz, another tiebreak among many 7-6(3) in the third. On Saturday, in the semis, he went down 7-6(5) in the third versus the 20-year-old Jenson Brooksby.

Giron had a good week, and the former UCLA collegian is growing more consistent, aggressive and thoughtful. He is currently ranked No. 64.

Here is my recent story about Giron.

Last year, there were no U.S. men in the top 20. Now, there are two top 20s. That is critical, but can they reach the top 10 this year? Isner has done that before, but the rest have yet to do it. The No. 17 Taylor Fritz has a shot because he has improved a decent amount over the past year, and the No. 45 Brooksby is understanding what it takes to move up. The No. 34 Frances Tiafoe can be up and down, but he is more careful. Another young person, the No. 43 Sebastian Korda, is finding his solution.

In 2003, Andy Roddick won the US Open, which is a very long time ago. Back then, before the 2000s, a bunch of American guys grabbed the Slams in the 1990s, like Pete Sampras, Andre Agassi and Jim Courier. They were locked in, most of the time. And we are not just talking about the serves, but they were super consistent and could play with a lot of variety.

In the next nine months, the US men will attempt to upset the big boys. Perhaps. As Giron said: “Anything can happen.”

Men’s first round at Australian Open

Reilly Opelka

Here are four men’s matches in the first round at the Australian Open, with the men.

Rafa Nadal vs. Marcos Giron
The Spaniard is back. In the fall, he couldn’t not play because he was injured. But last week, he won another tournament, his 89th victory. As always, he has a big first serve, his amazingly good with his heavy forehand, and at the net, he is so consistent. If he stays healthy over the next two weeks, he certainly has a shot to win another Grand Slam, as he is now the only former champion in the field with Novak Djokovic gone. That would be 21 majors, which would be a huge victory. Giron had a good 2021, and it took him years to understand how to win at this level. In order to win more matches, and to move up the ladder, he had to define what he really need to grow. Apparently, he did just that. However, to upset Nadal at a Grand Slam, the American has to play almost perfect. He will have some fine games, but to shock him, that is almost impossible.

John Isner vs. Maxime Cressy
The 36-year-old Isner says that he wants to stay this year and even more, even though he is aging. Well good for him. The big man will always throw in a huge amount of aces, and nail his hard forehand. He can be upset when he loses in close matches — especially at the Australian Open — bit when he wins, he can be super happy. Not many people know who Cressy is, but he reached the final last week, upsetting Reilly Opelka and Grigor Dimitrov, before he lost against Nadal, 7-6, 6-3. Very good. Last year, he was pretty decent, but not great. He is 24 years old, so he has lots of time to grow. But, on court at the AO, Isner will blast him in four sets.

Reilly Opelka vs. Kevin Anderson
The rising American improved a lot last year, with his huge serves and his forehand, too. He has improved his foot speed. The funny thing is when Opelka has to play against a gigantic server like Anderson, there will be few rallies. The South African — who does live in the United States — has aced so many times over the years, and believe it or, he improved his backhand and his return. He reached the Grand Slam finals twice, which is huge. Now he is aging, but he continues to push himself. The match should go into the fifth set, and the winner will be the player who returns more consistently. It looks like Opelka will do just that.

Cameron Norrie vs. Sebastian Korda
The young American Korda is rising. While he played a lot at the tournaments, he could be off, but when he is on, he can jump on the ball. At the start of 2021, he was ranked No. 119, and now he is No. 40. Clearly he was improving a lot. He does have a lot of different shots, which are all solid. So as long as he can produce, then he will continue to seriously improve. However, the Brit Norrie had a fine year. Now he is smart, on court, going for the shots, and to try to hit the lines. He has been disciplined, and stable. Korda will attempt to crack on him, but Norrie will stay there for a long time and beat him in five tough sets.