The Picks in Rome: Tuesday, May 16

Alexander Zverev
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Alexander Zverev  over J.J. Wolf
It is pretty clear that the German Zverev can be erratic, and he can also lift up high when he is reacting. He does know  that when he is feeling stellar, then he can not to just mix it, but he is pointed. However, he has not played great this season, but he is gradually playing better, due to his injure.

The former Grand Slam champion Boris Becker says that Zverev has to go back to the basics. That is exact what Becker used to do when he was on court.

“That’s in the past, and 12 months later, the stark reality is brutal. That’s the sport. He is fit again but can’t manage to match the form he had a year ago. There are many reasons for that,” he told Eurosport Germany’s Das Gelbe vom Ball. “What is important, and he is always extremely self-critical, is that he realizes this, that he is honest with himself and doesn’t blame bad luck, bad fortune, wind or too hot a sun – but the fact that he doesn’t play enough. I am sure he will address this in his team and then also train better again. In my opinion, Zverev is not playing tennis properly at the moment.”

Now that is a very controversial, but at least he decided to be honest, even though when he was playing on tour, at times, Becker could dismiss his comments. Zverev must have read it, but beyond that he has to out-hit Wolf, who can play vast  when he is on. The American is pretty intense, and he can also be jolly consistent. On clay, though, it will be a huge challenge to out-hit Zverev. Wolf will make the attempt, but Zverev will bash his forehand and win it in a three, super long, set.

Lorenzo Musetti over Frances Tiafoe
The Italian has always been pretty good on the clay, and over the past two months, he has knocked down some very good competitors. The young Musetti can be hitting it hard, pretty deep, with his forehand and his backhand. When he is feeling good, he can smash the ball. However, he still has a good amount to prove that he will add more on his game.

As he said, when he asked about the multi champion Roger Federer, he watched him a lot.  “”I like everything about him, but if I have to highlight one aspect I would say it’s his style. It’s something unique, the combination of fun and elegance, like the ability to play relaxed and calm.” Musetti said. “I try to be like him, I have less control and sometimes I’m more nervous on the court, so I think I can do better if I compare myself to Federer. But I think there are details where we have similarities, for example in movements, which is something I’ve always tried to do since I was a child.”

The same goes with Tiafoe, who always listens to watch many players. On the hardcourts, he has been dominating at times, but recently, he set back, a little bit. On the clay, he has to rally for a long time, until he will has a good chance to rip it on the ball. He may do it, but here in Rome, the fans will be cheering so hard to watch   Musetti  win the match. He will do it, in three, exhausting, sets.

Paula Badosa over Karolina Muchova
Over the past five weeks, the Spaniard finally started to play much better. She still has a substantial improvement on the court, moving around, and really understand where she has to go.  

Badosa revealed some changes that she is planning on implementing. “I see that the players are starting to get to know me, so we have decided to change some things in my game and make tactical adjustments. It is not easy, in the middle of a game, to change the position of return or hit a parallel in a difficult situation, but I’m on that path so I have to continue on that path,” Badosa  said.

Muchova can be very consistent, and she also likes to wreck her backhand. Her forehand is pretty good, but it can also be short, and her first serve can also be huge, but her second serve can be slow. These two have put together some terrific wins, but on the clay in the slow Rome, Badosa will take it in three, bizarre, sets. 

Veronika Kudermetova over Qinwen Zheng
Last year,  in September in Tokyo, Zheng beat Kudermetova  5-7, 6-3, 7-6(3). It was a super close match, when the young player put together some  incredible rallies. She is very quick, she is also pretty steady, but she still has to hit the ball harder. Plus, the 20-year-old really likes on the hardcourts, but on the clay, she is still figuring it out.

Kudermetova appears to be better week after week. She played a fine tournament in Madrid, reaching the semis, beating a couple very good players. However, in the final, Iga Swiatek  smoked her. Kudermetova is a big hitter, but her forehand can be out of control, but when the Russian is locked in, then she can smack it into the corners. She still needs to be more consistent, and they both do, but on Tuesday, Kudermetova  will win it in three, hardcore, sets.

Jannik Sinner over Francisco Cerundolo
Even on clay, the Italian is much more consistent, he swings hard with his forehand and his backhand, and also, he is better at the net. He is young, and he does get upset, but when he is really thinking about what he is going, then even after he made a lot of errors, Sinner can re-set it. He can be intense, and so is Cerundolo, and he does hit some huge shots, into the corner. This year, he has won a couple, tough, excellent matches, beating Felix Auger-Aliassime and Casper Ruud. However, he also lost pretty early.

The No. 8 Sinner has put together some fine matches on the hardcourts and while he still has to figure out on the clay, he is gradually improving. Sinner will win it in three, grinding, sets.

‘We are human’ Novak Djokovic beats Roger Federer to win Indian Wells

Djokovic IW 15 TR MALT1497

BNP Paribas, India Wells, March 22– For a moment, it looked like Roger Federer was right there. Novak Djokovic had choked in the tiebreaker in the second set and lost it. He was up 5-3; he grew nervous and double faulted twice.   Why was the eight-time champion shaking in his boots? The Serbian pulled himself off the floor and broke the great Swiss to go up 2-0 in the third set. He was going to cruise again. But he stopped, Federer went at him and Djokovic hit a couple ugly serves and was broken again. It was 2-1, they were even, and Djokovic walked toward his chair and smashed his racket so hard that he destroyed it in piece of meat.

But he moved ahead. Then he kept cracking his forehands and backhands, then he returned everything that Federer was handling, then he kissed the lines.

Djokovic won the title 6-3 6-7(5) 6-2 at the BNP Paribas Open Indian Wells. He has now won 2008, 2011, 2014 and 2015.

Pretty easy.

Nope, but very impressive.

“The experience of playing many matches in the big stage and of this importance definitely helps in these particular moments to know what to play,” Djokovic said. “The right shot and stay calm and committed only to the next ball. We are all humans. We all fall under pressure sometimes. It’s completely normal, even though I have had so much experience. Roger, as well.

“Today 3‑2 in the third he made double fault to give me the break. So it does happen; it’s normal on this level with this kind of intensity and competitive spirit that is out there, it happens that you fail sometimes. It’s important to bounce back. It’s important to regroup, and, okay, let it go and move on to the next mission.”

The Swiss has played Djokovic so many times, entering the tournament 20-17 head to head. He had beaten him the past two times at Shanghai in October 2014, and at Dubai a months ago. Federer knew how to go straight at him. He was just fine mixing him up, but he knew that the only way to win is to pound him immediately. For the most part, Federer did, but he was un-able to stroke the lines. He had to over power him with his forehands because he cannot fool him with his one-handed backhand. His serves had to smoke inside this chest, or twist it outside the box. Federer was close, but not close enough.

“I thought it was positive for me,” Federer said. “Very positive physically and mentally. I think he smashed a racquet in the process. I felt like I was getting the upper hand from the baseline. I was making every return, first and second serve, so overall it was the perfect thing to happen. That’s why I’m even more disappointed that it ended up finishing the way it did. For me it was totally against the way the match was going. It was actually the comeback for me to really snap my authority on the match. He loosened up and tried to play a bit more aggressive and that worked. He did very well at that. After that he never looked back and he loosened up a bit.”

Federer acknowledged that Djokovic rarely falls apart. He will go home to Switzerland and will train, getting ready for the clay in Monte Carlo.

Djokovic has celebrate his 50th tournament win on the ATP Tour. He is now ahead of his coach, Boris Becker. He can buy a beer for his friend. Or drink a beer for himself. After all, at Indian Wells, he more than deserves it.

“It’s a great milestone. I don’t take anything for granted,” Djokovic said. “I believe that I have to earn everything that I do. I always try to look for additional motivation, because that’s something that is necessary, especially if you’re playing on the highest level.”

Toni Nadal, Patrick Mouratoglou win Coach of Year polls

Coach of the Year/ATP

Results

Toni Nadal/
Rafael Nadal
37%
Magnus Norman/
Stan Wawrinka
32%
Ivan Lendl/
Andy Murray
24%
Marian Vajda/
Novak Djokovic
7%

Coach of the Year/WTA

Results

Patrick Mouratoglou/
Serena Williams
57%
Carlos Rodriguez/
Li Na
22%
Sam Sumyk/
Victoria Azarenka
11%
Marko Jankovic/
Jelena Jankovic
10%

There has not been a more interesting off-season in recent memory when it comes coaching changes than in 2013. There have been a slew a moves amongst notable players, which began shortly after the WTA season ended and culminated with Maria Sharapova’s hiring of Sven Groeneveld.

Here is my analysis of the major WTA coaching changes.

The after the ATP season ended, the guys shifted into high gear and in the last week alone, Novak Djokovic announced he had hired Boris Becker, and Roger Federer asked Stefan Edberg to consult with him, at least in the short term. Kei Nishikori is now working with Michael Chang and Goran Ivanisevic coaching Marin Cilic again.

As Magnus Norman, the former Roland Garros finalist and coach of Stan Wawrinka tweeted: “Lendl,Goran,Chang and now Becker and perhaps Edberg as coaches on the @ATPWorldTour. Should do coach tournament. Sure not top seed anymore’

Before touching on the significance of those partnerships, a few words about our current Coach of the Year polls, which you can vote in here.

On the ATP side the nominees are:

Toni Nadal for Rafael Nadal; Marian Vajda for Novak Djokovic; Ivan Lendl for Andy Murray and Magnus Norman for Stan Wawrinka. On the WTA side, the nominees are: Patrick Mouratoglou for Serena Williams; Sam Sumyk for Victoria Azarenka;

Carlos Rodriguez for Li Na; and Marko Jankovic for Jelena Jankovic.

As of the morning of December 20, Lendl and Norman were leading the men’s poll. Murray became the first man since Fred Perry in 1936 to win Wimbledon and that alone says that his coach did an excellent job in preparing him for the biggest match of his life on the biggest stage in his nation and, to many folks, the most important venue in the sport.

Norman helped Wawrinka become a better all-around player and a much more confident person on court, which is why he was able to finish the year in the top eight for the first time and become a serious threat at the Slams.

Toni Nadal did a fantastic job helping Rafa adjust to Djokovic’s newfound strengths and helping his nephew add a few new elements to his own game while he was out with an injury, which is why Nadal had the best year of any player out there, won two majors and finished No. 1.

While Vajda now wants to take a back seat to Becker after eight year at the helm, it cannot be dismissed that he helped Djokovic regain the confidence he lost after losing to Nadal in the US Open final and go undefeated during the fall.

After Serena had her most consistent year ever and only lost four matches, Mouratoglou has to be given credit for helping her keep her mind on court all season long. She hadn’t shown an ability to do that as a veteran player until this year and now once again she is the dominant figure in her sport.

Sumyk is an underrated coach who has done an excellent job with Azarenka overall. She managed to win the Aussie Open amidst controversy, score two wins over Williams and, while she could have played much better in the third set of the US Open final and of course at the WTA Championships when she was wiped out, she remains Serena’s most threatening rival, and that is partly because her coach has helped her refine her game and keep her head in matches.

Rodriguez has made Li a player to fear on every surface and she trusts him enough to actually make net charging a part of her repertoire, which could be the addition that takes her to another Slam title.

Anyone who watched Jelena Jankovic flounder in 2012 (and before) knows just how far she has fallen and it took a family member – namely her brother Marko – to understand where she was and where she needed to go to regain her former top five form. She finished the year in the top 8 and once again is filled with vim and vigor.

Here are my quick thoughts on the recent ATP coaching moves.

Djokovic hires Becker: Clearly Djokovic wants to work with an ex-No. 1 who has won Slams to perhaps do with him what Lendl did with Murray: give him some key tips as to how to handle himself in Grand Slam finals. He also wants to be able to go on the attack more often, which Becker did pretty consistently. The Serbian will not morph into a serve and volleyer like Becker was, but he can improve his volley and his transition game.  Two big questions arise: Becker has never coached full-time and, will Djokovic be patient with him if he has to learn on the job; and given that Becker is a very public person who likes to discuss issues with the media, will Djokovic tolerate that if Becker criticizes him to the world or try to muzzle him?

Federer trains for a week with Edberg: The Swede says he is willing to consider working more with the Swiss than the week together they spent in Dubai. Edberg is Federer’s hero, so he clearly respects him, but what exactly can the Swede do with a great but aging player who is behind the eight ball when it comes to being able to be the rest of the so-called Big 4 again? Serve and volley? Chip and charge? Maybe, but Federer’s prior coach, Paul Annacone preached that and it didn’t turn out to matter much in 2013.

Nishikori and Chang: The American has coached before, doing a stint with Peng Shuai, so he does have some experience. Like Nishikori, Chang was an undersized player during his era, but the former world No. 2 was steadier than Japan’s top player is now, was mentally tougher and frankly was better all around. Nishikori needs to improve his fitness and play more patiently before he takes big rips at the ball.  Chang, who was very hard worker, can help him with that.

Ivanisevic and Cilic: These two Croatians have worked with each other in the past.  Ivanisevic is a bold, self-confident person who can perhaps convince Cilic to stop doubting himself. He also needs to figure out why his student hasn’t come close to living up to his top-5 potential. From the outside, that looks like a very complex jigsaw puzzle.