Roland Garros Draw, the Women: Will all the top 4, Serena, Sharapova, Halep & Kvitova get through?

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FIRST QUARTER

Top seed Serena Williams may be the favorite, but she has one of the most dramatic draws in memory. She could face the former No. 1 Vika Azarenka in the third round, when the Belarussian has matches against the American in Madrid and she began to shake and lost. Obviously, Serena was more aggressive and she didn’t panic, while Azarenka did. However, Azarenka believes she can come very close against Williams and this time, if they meet each other again she has to hit the lines immediately. Azarenka will be right there again but Serena will nail a few big aces and win it.

Assuming Serena Williams reaches to the fourth round, she could face her sister, Venus, who goes up against Sloane Stephens in the first round. That is a pick-em right there as neither have been played great in the last two months. The younger Stephens did play OK this week in Strasbourg until she got blown out in semis against Sam Stosur, losing 6-0 in the third set. Whether it’s Venus or Stephens, Serena will win but it could be stressful.

Serena might have to play her great friend Caro Wozniacki in the quarters, but the Dane has a long way to go on clay. It could be Andrea Petkovic, Sara Errani or Jelena Jankovic, assuming they are healthy, which is a big if. As Serena says, she struggled last year in Paris and she knows that if she is going to go deep again that she has to be healthly. It won’t be easy, but Serena will make it to the semifnals.

WHO CAN UPSET SERENA WILLIAMS & REACH THE SEMIS?: Caro Wozniacki

SECOND QUARTER

No. 4 Petra Kvitova is the favorite to reach the semis, not because she has been fantastic on red clay, but she played extremely well in Madrid, winning the tournament and running around as fast as she could and keeping the balls inside the box. This won’t be easy though. She might have to face Irina Begu in the third round, who can clock her strokes. She might have to play Madison Keys or Timea Bacsinszky in the fourth round, both of whom who went very deep this year and who won’t be afraid. Keys or Timea Bacsinszky can take out Kvitova, but you have to start very early because once she gets rolling, she is very hard to stop.

If the Czech reached the quarterfinal, it is between anybody’s game. Gene Bouchard is ranked No. 6, but she hasn’t played well all year, with the exception of the Australian Open, when she made it until the quarters. But now, everyone has been able to watch her break down. Yes the Canadian can be very close against Kristina Mladenovic in the first round, but the Frenchwoman can torch her, going strong and deep. The two others, Karolina Pliskova and Svetlana Kuznetsov, are ripped to reach the quarters. While Pliskova has looked very good this year for the most part, but not on clay. Kuznetsova looked spectacular in Madrid and she did win RG back in the day in 2009, so when she is feeling right she can power into the quarters. And then again, Kvtiova was hitting her spots into the corners in Madrid and she will doing it again reaching the semifinals.

WHO CAN UPSET KVITOVA & REACH THE SEMIS?: Svetlana Kuznetsova

THIRD QUARTER

It would be great if No. 7 Ana Ivanovic reaches the semifinals and then the 2008 champion just might recall that she never grew nervous that year. But she was a baby then and now she is thinking that she is deep into her head, especially this year where after she reached Brisbane in the final at the start of the year she became extremely nervous. Here at RG, perhaps the Serbian will make it by the third round but then the Frenchwoman Caroline Garcia will take her out. The No. 31 is not perfect by any means this year but on clay on Paris, she will shine, reaching into the quarters.

But who will face her there? No. 3 Simona Halep, that’s who. Yes, the Romanian was so-so at Madrid and Rome, but she wants to return again into the RG final. Last year not many knew her and she nearly won the tournaments against Maria Sharapova. This time, everyone knows her. She will have to work hard against Alize Cornet in the third round and the same thing against No. 19 Elina Svitolina in the fourth round who will upset No. 14 Aga Radwanska, but she will outlast her to reach the quarterfinals. However, even though Halep can be afraid at the Slams (look at how she stopped at the 2014 US Open and 2015 Australian Open) she will be able to dig deep and run past Garcia to reach the semis.

WHO CAN UPSET HALEP & REACH THE SEMIS?: Caroline Garcia

FOURTH QUARTER

Can anyone else knock out the top 4 and reach the semis? Nope, although everyone is vulnerable. The defending champion Maria Sharapova will face a tough draw. She has to open against the huge server Kaia Kanepi, but she isn’t fast enough. Yes, Sam Stosur has been very tough at Roland Garros, once reaching the French final, but she will have to play lights out to stun the Russian/American. Sharapova knows how she will hurt Lucia Safarova on her backhand in the fourth. In the quarterfinal, Sharapova knows she will have to mix up her shots in order to win. In all probability, she will face Carla Suarez-Navarro in the quarters, but who really knows as the Spaniard might have to play against Flavia Pennetta in the third round and possibly go up against her fellow countrymen Garbine Muguruza or the German Angie Kerber (who beat Sharapova at Stuttgart). All of those four love clay and thrive on it. If Sharapova has a bad day, she can fall against the Spaniards, the German or the Italian, but Sharapova has reached Roland Garros in the final in 2012 (d. Errani), 2013 (l. Serena) and 2014 (d. Halep) and she knows exactly what is coming. She will reach the semifinal again and handily.

WHO CAN UPSET SHARAPOVA & REACH THE SEMIS:: Carla Suarez-Navarro

 

 

 

Happiness is no tennis at the dinner table

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‘Li Na, Li Na, do this Li Na.’

FROM THE ROGER’S CUP IN TORONTO – Li Na and her husband Dennis don’t talk tennis at the dinner table. Or at least away from tennis sites. That’s likely why every time she talks about him she does so with a smile on her face. “Out of the tennis court we never talk about tennis, so that’s why we can keep a long marriage.”

LI had another reason to smile on Thursday after she edged Ana Ivanovic 3-6 6-1 7-6 (5) in a match that for little while appeared to be in the Serbian’s hands, but once again she could not find a way to best a top player and went down. She was up 5-2, served for the contest at 5-3, but then Li began to deliver hammer shots with her devastating backhand crosscourt and down the line, with slice and body serves and some deep and impossible to touch forehands. Ivanovic did not choke the match, but she could not seem to bring her ‘A’ game when it mattered most. At 5-5 in the tiebreaker, Li nailed a forehand crosscourt winner. On match point with the ball into her favored forehand side, Ivanovic flew one long.

Li’s coach of one year now, Carlos Rodriguez is not with her on tis trip, but they are communicating via email. He will be in Cincinnati with her next week. Having Rodriguez around has even helped her marriage and how Dennis deals with her on court when Carlos isn’t around.

“Every time [Carlos] was like say, Relax.  I say, I already relaxed.  He say, No, you should even more.  I was like, Okay.  But it’s very tough, because my husband also is my ex‑coach.  Sometimes he also has some idea, but if he say something I didn’t want listening all the time. So now I think he got a little bit smart.  If he want to do something he talk to Carlos, and then Carlos talk to me.  I was like, Okay, I have to do that because Carlos say I have to do.  Because if like two coaches say the different thing, it was a little bit of a fight because I didn’t know which one I listen.  Now I think they do pretty good job.  They make together first and then say, Li Na, you have to do this.  Li Na, you have to do that.  Same like here, because Carlos is not here, but my husband always say, Oh, Carlos say you should… So I was like, Okay.”

Li one of the WTA’s most endearing characters. She has a terrific sense of humor and enjoys a good laugh even at her own expense. She will have another tough contest in the next round when she faces Bank of the West Classic Classic champion Dominika Cibulkova who took down  Roberta Vinci of Italy 6-3 7-6. Domi has her grove back and she will be more than pleased to play powerball with Li.

Two other women who can smack the ball moved ahead and will face off. Defending champ Petra Kvitova muscled up and took a  6-3, 6-3 victory over SoCal Open victor Sam Stosur, who looked a little fried. Kvitova knew that so she made sure to hang tough in long rallies. But she does not feel she can take that kind of risk against Sorana Cirstea who had perhaps had the best  18 hours periods of her life when she fought off two match points against Caro Wozniacki in a three hour match that ended at almost midnight and then came back on Thursday afternoon and took out Jelena Jankovic 6-3 6-4.

“I think I made a huge step forward today by backing up the win from yesterday, because I think this was one of the issues in the past,” Cirstea said. “I would have a good win but then I couldn’t really back it up.

Now I feel I’m more solid, and I’m taking every match the same and not focusing so much, ‘Oh, I just had a big win.’ I’m like, ‘Today is a new day, new match.’ I just have to do the same things I’m doing every single day. This kind of mentality, it’s helping me.”

Marion Bartoli retired down 7-6 1-0 to Magdalena Rybarikova of Slovakia and either has an  abdominal injury or she just exhausted from Wimbledon. Read here.

Serena Williams smoked  Kirsten Flipkens 6-0 6-3 and showed the Belgium just how hard it is to best two sisters in one event: Flipkens was the one who beat Venus Williams in round one.

Agnieszka Radwanska played the big points better than Sloane Stephens in a 6-1 7-6 win and said the young American just needs more experience.

Sara Errani is less than thrilled with Alize Cornet but beat her anyway France 7-5 7-6.   Read about their ‘Vamos v Allez’  tiff here.