Ka-boom: Can the American men go deep on European clay?

Taylor Fritz
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Taylor Fritz: “Maybe not all the other, older generation of Americans wouldn’t want to play so much on clay, but it’s important.”

The American men have not won the ATP 1000 in Madrid was in 2002, when the Grand Slam eight time champion Andre Agassi won it on clay. He had been No. 1, and he also won all four, winning the Australian Open, Roland Garros, Wimbledon, and the U.S. Open. But with the current men, no one has won it, and it has been almost 20 years. The last one was Andy Roddick, who grabbed it at the 2003 U.S. Open.

In a sense, it is somewhat decent, as over the years, many people thought out in the county began to really like tennis. Not just in Switzerland, and Spain, but also, with Serbia, as Novak Djokovic has won 21 Grand Slams. He can play spectacularly, as did the now retired Roger Federer, as well as Rafa Nadal, who is still playing.

Unfortunately, both Djokovic and Nadal are hurt so they cannot play in Madrid this week. But the No. 10, Taylor Fritz, is playing and he has had a pretty good year, but not phenomenal. He has yet to reach into the semifinals in the Slams, but at least he had won an ATP 1000 at the 2022 Indian Wells. He was rising, and at times, he looks amazing, yet on the dirt, he has yet to go deep at Barcelona, Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros. He wants to go further, and he wants to, but he is not quite there, yet.
 
“Well, look, if you want to be one of the best players in the world, you really do have to perform on all surfaces. I think what other choice do you have? You have to embrace it,” Fritz said. “You have to try to enjoy playing on it, try to get better, try to have the best results possible. I’m still obviously improving a lot, but it’s always been important for me to try to play a serious clay court schedule. Maybe not all the other, older generation of Americans wouldn’t want to play so much on clay, but it’s important if you want to be top-5, top-10 player to be able to perform on every surface.”

Not only did Agassi finally became so much better in the clay courts, but Jim Courier and Pete Sampras both won at Rome. In the early 1990s, Courier won Roland Garros twice, with some long, hard points. You can also throw in Michael Chang, another American, who when he was so young, he flew up into the sky and nailed it, winning with some incedible matches, and he won Paris in1989. That was mind blowing. Those four combined for 27 Grand Slams. Ka-boom.

Right now, with the current men, it is possible that someday, someone will win a major. But we are not sure. As Fritz said, that the Russian Andrey Rublev has become so steady. Last week, he won the ATP 1000 Monte Carlo. “He’s very consistent. He’s made lots of quarters, semis, and I think this is his third final. It’s kind of just whoever plays the best on that week” Fritz said. “He has been unlucky. But yeah, obviously he’s 100% at the level of a player who you would expect to have one and he’ll have one soon.”

The Picks in Barcelona, Stuttgart, Munich: Sunday, April 23

Iga Swiatek
Mal Taam/MALT photo

Stuttgart
Iga Swiatek over Aryna Sabalenka

You have to wonder how  the No. 1 Swiatek became so excellent, again. Maybe it is during this week, when she is in the amazing clay, as she did win Roland Garros, twice. However, this year, she has been up and down, with her hard strokes.

She does know that against the 2023 Australian Open Sabalenka is mighty with her forehand and her backhand, that she can kick down anyone. However, on the hardcourts, she can control what she has to do, and she can also decide if she wants to switch it. At times, she can, but while she knows on the dirt for years, she would over hit, with a lot of errors. Sabalenka has certainly improved her serve, but it is mediocre. That is why Swiatek will be more patient, and also, she will hit some ridiculous shots. The Poland person will win in two, long, sets.

Barcelona
Carlos Alcaraz over Stefanos Tsitsipas

The Spaniard just said that he is feeling great, on court, and he is playing so steady. Alcaraz  grew up when he first started how to play on clay and on the hardcourts, and it took him a while,  but he did it very quickly. He is just so fast when he is running, and he can do almost everything, with his forehand, his backhand, his serve and at the net. Yes, Alcaraz will likely become No. 1 again, but he still isn’t perfect, yet. Maybe in a few years, but he is young, so he still has to conclude exactly the right shots.

Tsitsipas is playing darn well, and he can look great, but then he hits some odd errors. However at least he really concentrates, and he can also seriously alloy it with his one-handed backhand. His forehand is very sturdy, and his first serve is rap good.
However, Alcaraz  has beaten him all three times, including in Barcelona last year, winning in three sets. He will do it again, in another three sets, when Alcaraz hops in the line and put it away, again and again.

Two quick pics
Banja Luka, Bosnia & Herzegovina


Andrey Rublev over Dusan Lajovic
The Serbian veteran Lajovic has had a surprising week, but apparently, he is playing wonderful ball. However, the Russian Rublev is much more secure again, and he will win it in straight sets.

Munich
Holger Rune over Boticvan Van de Zandschulp

That could be a very long match, and while Rune has played insane over the past two weeks, yet he is still not playing as well as he can. However, he is rising quickly, but Van de Zandschulp also playing very devout, taking down against Taylor Fritz. The Netherlands seems to think that he can chop him down, but Rune  will out steady him in a bizarre three sets.

Matt’s yesterday picks

Correct: Iga Swiatek over Aryna Sabalenka
Correct: Carlos Alcaraz over Stefanos Tsitsipas
Correct: Holger Rune over Boticvan Van de Zandschulp

Andrey Rublev over Dusan Lajovic

Matt’s picks this week

15 out of 18: 83.3% correct

The Picks in Rolex Monte-Carlo, Sunday, April 16

Andrey Rublev
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Andrey Rublev over Holger Rune
That was quite a day on Saturday, when Holger Rune out-lasted Jannik Sinner 7-5 in third set. He could have folded, as he had early  in the year, but on the court, he is playing so physically. Rune can run for hours, and he can also mix it some terrific forehands, and his backhands. He also can crack his first serve, and he can also read when he is returning. Last year, all together, Rune was rising up, much faster, but in the start of the year, he lost his way.

Rublev did beats Taylor Fritz in the third set, when he began to smack the ball, very deep, and he would also be extremely consistent, finally. The Russian tries  to mash the ball, pretty quickly, but now he can a victim. In the third set against Fritz, he decided to knock him out in the third, and he kicked his chin.

But Rune said, “I expect for myself to push full. It’s the last push, it’s the last match of the tournament. Obviously [Rublev] had three sets today as well, so he must be feeling the legs a little bit, I hope. It’s going to be great. We played each other twice. It’s 1-1 head-to-head, so it’s going to be interesting, for sure.”

Yes it will be. Without a doubt, Rune is playing very wold,  but on Saturday, he had to play around three hours. That could be too much, and  Rublev will win the tournament in three bashing sets.

Matt’s picks

Correct: Andrey Rublev over Holger Rune

Matt’s current week picks

10 out of 16: 62.5% correct

The Picks on clay in Monte-Carlo Masters: Thursday, April 13

Alexander Zverev
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Daniil Medvedev over Alexander Zverev
The Russian has had a tremendous year, on the hard courts, but now he has to stay very aggressive on the clay. Most of the time, Medvedev can rally, side to side, and wait until he has a chance to nail on the lines. However, on clay, it is clear that you have to be patient for a long, long time.

The German Zverev is gradually back, on the court, as the No. 2  became hurt, he had to stay for a while. Just like with Medvedev, Zverev almost won the 2020 U.S. Open, but he could not do it. Zverev can be very steady, and also, he can crush the ball with his forehand and his backhand. Mentally, he is fragile, so if he wants to go back into the top five, he has to measure up.  Zverev will continue to play better, gradually, yet Medvedev is right there, who wants to be No. 1 this season. Medvedev will defeat Zverev in three, brutal sets.

Novak Djokovic over Lorenzo Musetti
The Italian appears to be  playing a decent match, given that this year, he has been mediocre, at best. The 19-year-old did throw in some terrific contests in 2022, but then he went down, fast. Against the No. 1 Djokovic, Musetti has to play almost perfectly to upset him. The Serbian can do almost everything, but his forehand can miss it during the rallies. His backhand is super steady, and his return is phenomenal. It will be a huge opportunity, to upset Djokovic, but Musetti is still not ready to reaching into the top 10, yet. Djokovic will win in two, hard sets.

TWO OTHER QUICK PICKS
Matteo Berrettini will upset Holger Rune in three sets, as they are both struggling, but the Italian wants to rise, ASAP. … Hubert Hurkacz has had a pretty good year, but on the clay, he cannot handle it, yet. Therefore, Jannik Sinner will win it,in two sets over Hurkacz as he has played amazing at Indian Wells and Miami. Mr. Rising.

Matt’s yesterday picks

Correct: Holger Rune over Dominic Thiem
Stan Wawrinka over Taylor Fritz

Matt’s current week picks

3 out of 6: 50% correct

The Picks on clay in  Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters: Wednesday, April 12

Stan Wawrinka
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Stan Wawrinka over Taylor Fritz
The American returns to play on the dirt, and while he really likes the hard courts, he had improved a lot, but during the clay last year, he has been so-so. Now it is time to measure up. Fritz can hit with his fast forehand, and his bashing backhand. He can also be patient, but others time, he can be to distracting.

Clearly, the 38-years-old Wawrinka is aging, but the Swiss has played some amazing matches, on clay, when he won the 2015 Roland Garros, stunning  Roger Federer. His one-handed backhand is so heavy, with huge spin, and his forehand is also hard, and at times, when it is flat. However, he is little bit slower, and he has lost a number of matches. But with that, now in the spring, he will make a huge effort to show the fans that he can actually turn it on. Yes, Fritz is the better players on the hard courts, but on the clay, it is still Wawrinka, who will win in three, jarring sets.

Holger Rune over Dominic Thiem
This is super interesting that Thiem played his best match this year, easily beating Richard Gasquet. The Austria grew up leaning how to play on the clay, and gradually, he improved his heavy forehand and his backhand. However, he was hurt, and he lost control. Yes, he is darn smart, on the court, but the former 2020 U.S. Open champion started to push the ball, rather than making the attempt to hit it close to the lines.

The 19-year-old Rune has not playing well, hardly at all. He has won some decent matches, but he has not reach into the final in 2023, losing early at Indian Wells and Miami. The good thing is that last year in the fall, he was on fire,  when he won Paris, stunning Novak Djokovic. This week, he has decided that even if he loses,  at least he can make some different strokes, and to be much more focus. Rune is trying to be confident again, which means that while he knows that Thiem can grind it, all over the place,  he can out hit him. The No. 9 Rune will win it in two brutal sets.

Matt’s yesterday picks

Correct: Novak Djokovic over Ivan Gakhov
Correct: Stefanos Tsitsipas over Benjamin Bonzi

Matt’s current week picks

2 out of 4: 50% correct

Caroline Garcia wins the WTA Finals: ‘She dashed all over the place’

Caroline Garcia
Mal Taam/MALTphoto

Over the past 30 years, in the, only four players have won hte WTA Finals without taking a Grand Slam: Agnieszka Radwańska, Dominika Cibulková, Elina Svitolina and now, it is Caroline Garcia.

The now-cool veteran Garcia was never broken and beat the powerful Aryna Sabalenka 7-6 (4), 6-4. Sabalenka, who had a terrific week in Fort Worth. When she became frustrated, she turned it around. She was very close against the Frenchwomen. But, when the match was to be decided, Garcia would go for it with a lot of depth and creativity. While Sabalenka looked very good, but when she had the opening to pull it into the third set, she made some odd errors. 

Garcia was super-focused, and she dashed all over the place. That was pretty surprising, because 10 years ago, she looked very decent, but she was not excellent all the time. On court, she could be intense, but at other times, she would mentally walk away.

But not now. In the past three months, she looked very strong, and finally realized that if she could push her with her forehand, backhand and her terrific first serve, then she could beat anyone.

After beating Sabalenka, she said, “I had to try something new, and I like to challenge when I am going. That was very important.”

Not only did she beat Sabalenka, but it the semis, she almost stunned the No. 1, Iga Świątek. She really earned it. She was very calm and very effective. Plus, Garcia had to play almost every day, and really, it did not matter. Yes, everyone can be tired, but Garcia edged Daria Kasatkina 6-4, 1-6, 7-6 (5) in 2 hours, 27 minutes. The next day, she prevailed again, with no fear.

Next year, the now No. 4 Garcia has a chance to win a Grand Slam. She has won 11 titles on hard courts and on grass in singles. But on the clay, she has been spotty. However she won Roland Garros in doubles twice. Maybe next year, she can win it in singles in Paris. That would be phenomenal.

Rune takes down top-10 players to win Paris 1000
Instead on saluting the veterans, how about Holger Rune, the 19-year-old who sort of stunned Novak Djokovic in three long sets in Paris? In January, he was ranked No. 103, and now he is currently No. 10. What a turned around! There are not many teenagers to enter into the top 10, such as Rafa Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz.

The Dane Rune was surprised about moving up so quickly.  “I didn’t expect that at all four or five weeks ago but now I’m here,” said Rune. “I’m super happy how I officially ended my season, and if there possibly is more matches.” He will be the first alternate at the ATP Finals. If he plays, then more of the tennis world will see just how good he is.

Rune has won 19 of his past 21 matches, beating four top 10 other players: Stefanos Tsitsipas, Hubert Hurkacz, Andrey Rublev and Felix Auger-Aliassime.

One of his coaches, Patrick Mouratoglou, who also works with the WTA players and appears on TV, too, said: “We have to be very transparent on this. He can progress. He can improve much more. There are elements where he can actually improve very much,” Mouratoglou said. “We are reaching the end of the season. We will work on that. It’s not really that there is a danger, but there is a lot of work to provide. He’s Top 10. It’s not his ambition. I don’t know [if] we have seen actually his top tennis. It’s higher than before, but we have to upgrade his average tennis play and to make sure that his normal average play is as excellent as we have seen so far.”

Jessica Pegula finally wins a huge tournament

Jessica Pegula
Rick Limpert

Who would have known five years ago that Jessica Pegula would win a tournament — any tournament. She was steady at times, but she was not blasting the ball. She had chances, yet she would back off, and she would hope that her opponent would miss it.

Pegula knew that if she beat some excellent players, then her confidence would help reset her career.

Finally this year she won a huge event for the first time, winning the 1000 Guadalajara and beating Maria Sakkari 6-2, 6-3 in the final. During the match, she knew that if she attack with her ground strokes to different areas, then she could eventually prevail. That she did. Also, her return was excellent. Not only that, she also beat Elena Rybakina, Bianca Andreescu, Sloane Stevens, and Vika Azarenka, four Grand Slam champs. Whether she had to go for it soon, or just be patient, and she had it all.

Currently, she is No. 3 for the first time, and she is close to pushing past the No. 2 Ons Jabeur at the WTA Final, which will start on Saturday in Fort Worth. She will not be able to pass No. 1 Iga Świątek. But if they play each other, maybe Pegula can find a path to victory. They played each other this month in San Diego and the Pole out-hit her in three sets. To win the match, Pegula will have to be super assertive, because Świątek slams the ball all the time.

Auger-Aliassime rises

Last year, Felix Auger-Aliassime looked super when he was playing well. Plus he can be very enthusiastic. But he could not win the tournaments, falling in the Stuttgart and Melbourne finals and in Marseille this year.

Then, all of a sudden, he changed. His serve became more harmonious, his backhand was going deep and his return was finally thoughtful.

On Sunday, he beat American Sebastian Korda 6-3, 6-4 in Antwerp. In 2022, Auger-Aliassime has won three titles, and the Canadian is up to No. 9, and he has a real chance to play in the ATP Finals. The biggest thing will be in the Paris Masters, which will start in October 31. There will be serious pressure.

During the last two weeks, Korda finally came up, and he reached into finals twice. The 22-year-old decided to be more patient and, when he had a real opening, he shattered the ball. His father, Petr, won the Australian Open,in 1998, would also be patient but then he would rush into the net. Maybe the No. 33 Sebastian will do the same.

It was a bit of a surprise when Holger Rune took down Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-4, 6-4 to win Stockholm. However, the Dane is only 19 years old, so he can really hit it. He still isn’t perfect, yet, but he did have a fine run at 2022 Roland Garros beating, believe it or not, Tsitsipas.

Another youngster, Lorenzo Musetti, upset Matteo Berrettini 7-6(5) 6-2 in the Naples final. This season, Musetti did not win that many matches in the hardcourts, but the teenager is getting smarter each month. He was aggressive in the match. But, to move up the rankings, his serve and his return needs to grow and blossom.