These two have played each other 36 matches, with Federer winning 19 matches and Djokovic having won 17 matches. It has been very, very close and while the 33-year-old Federer has slipped a tiny bit, in two out of three sets he is incredibly impressive.
Last year, Federer bested the Serbian 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 in the semis in Dubai, so why not do it again? Well, he might, but Djokovic was clearly not happy and some how, some way, Djokovic out toughs him at Indian Wells 7-6 in the third to win the crown.
However, Federer beat Djokovic on clay at Monte Carlo in the final. A few months later, Djokovic overcame Federer 7-5 in the fifth set at Wimbledon, perhaps the last chance for the Swiss. But he keeps trying, overcoming Djokovic at Shanghai.
It really doesn’t matter whether they are on clay, grass and hard outdoors and indoors: they are so close and capable that they can win or lose, be good or bad during the day.
Look what occurred in 2011 at the US Open semifinal between Federer against Djokovic. That year, Djokovic overcame “Rog” 6-7(7), 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 7-5. Finally, he was much more confident and much more mature. He never gave up.
Before the semifinal match, here is what I wrote on the USTA:
“When Federer bested Djokovic in the 2007 US Open final and in the 2008 and 2009 semis, Djokovic did not have the same strong and consistent serve that he has today, his forehand was not has accurate or hard, he wasn’t as confident at the net, and frankly, he didn’t believe in himself as much.
“Now he does and as his result, he’s won all but two tournaments he’s entered this year, he’s smiling all the time and is making many players outside of the top 10 look like rookies.
“Federer…is beautifully mixing up his deliveries. He seems more confident coming to the net and shortening points, and he is taking his backhand earlier.
“But what I don’t see in this match if the Serbian plays well is how Federer can open the court enough and crack winners because Djokovic is so fast and hits so deep that he squeezes the margins of the box to the point where his foes feel like they have no room to breath.
“Rather than blasting away with Djokovic from inside the baseline, Federer would be better serving to mix it up and take the Serbian out of his rhythm. But know this: Djokovic has revenge on his mind from his Roland Garros defeat and this time, he wont be caught sliding the wrong way as he will have his feet firmly planted on the cement. Since he won the 2004 US Open, Federer has only dropped two five setters, and one was to Djokovic in the 2010 semis. This time around, as hard as he tries and however much he has the crowd in his pocket, the Swiss won’t get that far as Djokovic will advance to his third US Open final in four sets.”
In 2015, things have changed a bit though now. Both have improved there volleys, Federer is more aggressive with his one-handed backhand and Djokovic is much more comfortable moving towards his left and whacking his forehand inside-out.
Frankly, it doesn’t really matter what their coaches say because the two players know each other like they are twins. It is all about who plays better. While Federer was not pleased that he was stunned by Seppi in Australia and badly wants a title, Djokovic won the Aussie because he is more comfortable. Novak will win the Dubai title in three sets.