Archives for 2013

The wrong road to the title: Azarenka struggles with Motivation

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Vika has hit bump in the road mentally.

BY MATT CRONIN

ISTANBUL – It is only the second day of the year-end Championships and we are already hearing about players experiencing burnout and looking forward to vacation next week. The season is a grind, whether it’s been shortened or not, but that kind of talk should be left until the final weekend, not the second day of the fifth most important event of the year when eight of the world’s best players are on site.

Victoria Azarenka, who went down rather quietly to Jelena Jankovic in straight sets, kicked the discussion off. She said much the same last year after her loss to Maria Sharapova in the 2012 semis, with complaints that  she was nicked up. But now she feels fried, even though she has only played 51 matches this year, the least of anyone in the field. Yes, she has been injured at times as well as sick, but she should be able to get her head right for one week before she can take two months off.

But it doesn’t seem like she’ll be able to.

“I think it’s pretty obvious,” she said of how she is struggling to get motivated. “It’s just the bad road, and I have to go through that, because it didn’t happen to me in a long, long time. It’s been a long year.  It’s been a tough year.  It’s been tough two years, so that consistency I have been playing with, it’s sometimes difficult to keep all the time. Everybody goes through tough moments in his or her career, and the important thing is how you come out of it. I just need to battle right now as much as I can.”

Yes she does and given how much mental progress she’s made over the past two years, she should be able to find a way to suit up in her armor and give it a real go against Li Na, who is more than capable of knocking her out of the Championships on Friday. But the Belarussian seems to be having a lot of issues.

Her struggles with injury and illness this year weren’t massive, but the knee and hip injuries she sustained at Wimbledon did set her back some and then the virus she caught in Tokyo seems to have affected her mood, which isn’t uncommon for anyone, but she’s well enough now and needs to make a rapid attitude readjustment. That is, if she cares to.

If anyone has noticed, as well as she played during the US Open Series (except for the third set in in the US Open final against Serena), she is having tremendous trouble holding her serve since Wimbledon. She’s lost pace, accuracy and her kicker isn’t hopping very high. Her camp says she’s having technical issues and that her  injuries have not affected her serve, so then clearly she’s lacking confidence.

Win or lose or lose against Li, Azarenka needs to show the world just why she has been called a great champion. She needs to pull out a brand new shovel, spike into the ground and begin a big dig.

“Definitely it’s tough, in the end of the year to play against the best players, because every match you have to go and dig deep, and sometimes your motivation is not there enough to know the capacity, how deep can you dig,” she said.  “It’s tough for everybody I’m not going to sit here and say that I feel perfectly, but you play back‑to‑back matches.  It’s a little bit tiring, and all the things put together, it makes your body tired. Just mentally tough right now, tough to get things started a little bit.”

Serena Williams says that she can empathize with Azarenka, but she’s 2-0 after her straight set win over Aga Radwanska. She said that she didn’t travel to Istanbul to mail it in. “You’ve just got to decide if you want to or not,” she said.

Serena will face Petra Kvitova in the last match on Thursday night. Kvitova is the 2011 champ and super confident indoors, but defending titlist Williams will be the sternest test she’s faced with a roof over her head in a long time.

Li Na will face Jankovic in the opening match. Here’s my recap of her win over Sara Errani

Radwanska, who is 0-2, will play the second match against Angie Kerber. After the Championships she is going to go on vacation to the beach with her younger sister Urszula. Aga Radwanska and Kerber played a  marathon last year in Istanbul. If  the elder  Radwanska wants to survive another one, she cannot afford to be thinking about which style of bikini she’ll be wearing when she heads south next week.

Federer makes a move in Basel

Any win is a good win for Roger Federer these days, but that’s not the same thing as a good performance. Reaching the quarterfinals of his local event in Basel with a 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 win over No. 48 Denis Istomin, he gave the hometown crowds a first-hand look at why their man has had so many problems this season.

Each Federer match in the last few months has been closely watched for signs of either imminent turnaround or permanent stagnation, and this latest contest did little to settle the speculation. His error-prone play early on contrasted with his fight and improved form by the end of the up-and-down contest, leaving only uncertainty about what the next round will bring.

The packed stadium was quickly quieted as Federer began the match moving sluggishly and struggling his wayward forehand, allowing an emboldened Istomin to take the first set. But the 17-time Grand Slam champ did slowly find some rhythm, producing two statement winners — a Rafa-like curving forehand and topspin backhand down the line — to go up 4-2 in the second and announce to the roaring crowd that he had finally arrived.

The defining battle took place early in the third, with Federer missing chances to break in the first game and then finding himself down 0-40 on his own serve before Istomin produced four straight unforced errors to hand back the initiative. Federer also obliged with a few shocking errors, including a missed smash and lurching put-away forehand at net, but managed to hang on to what would be the longest and most significant game of the match.

From that point on, Federer’s shoulders opened up and his opponent’s slumped. Istomin, with one day’s less rest between matches, appeared to be tiring and won only one more game — even though Federer served at only 44 percent during the set.

It may not have been pretty but the win did leave Federer looking a lot better in the Race to London. With his nearest rivals Stanislas Wawrinka and Richard Gasquet both out in the first round and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Milos Raonic not playing, Federer is now in 7th place in the year-to-date standings. Winning a couple more matches this week would give him a big boost in his attempt to qualify for the year-end event. But he’ll have to play better — or least more consistently — to do it. A 3rd round match against Baby Fed, Grigor Dimitrov, could be in the cards. – Kamakshi Tandon

 

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The Favorites lead off with a Bang

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Serena appears to be nearly unstoppable.

 

ISTANBUL — The first day of the TEB BNP Paribas WTA Championships at the Sinan Erdem dome started with a whale of a first set between Victoria Azarenka and Sara Errani, with the smaller but quicker Italian throwing up one eye-popping lob winner after another to gain an early lead. But two-time Aussie Open champion Azarenka was clearly rusty and even though she fell behind 5-2, she stuck with her game plan of being patient until she had ball she could wallop.  What was lacking for a while was execution, but then her groundstrokes inched loser to the lines, she began to read the Italian when she was attempting to draw her in with soft drop shots, and she hit her spots with her serve more accurately.

Azarenka wiped off the rust cleanly,  played a headier tiebreaker and then raced way as Errani unusually began to cramp.A 7-6 (7) 6-2 victory for the Belarussian was in her pocket and the favorite in the White Group was feeling a whole lot better about herself than she did when she landed in Istanbul. Recall that after the US Open, she traveled to Asia, caught a virus and did nothing in Tokyo and Beijing. That was on her.

“I felt I didn’t have enough rest,” Azarenka told me. “Really, it took so much out of me that summer with the rehab and playing Cincinnati and playing so well at the US Open.  I just needed that break physically, and I felt so guilty not practicing, and I kept practicing and practicing and practicing, so it really didn’t do me well.”

Next up was the heavy favorite of the tournament, Serena Williams, who absolutely wiped the court with Angelique Kerber 6-3 6-1. Kerber said that she had no chance in the match as Serena served and returned “unbelievably.” Peter Bodo of TENNIS.com thought the German tanked the second set. Petra Kvitova and Aga Radwanska ended the session, which was fairly full attendance-wise.You can read my reaction to Kvitova’s win here , but it’s also important to note that Radwanska showed up in her press conference looking like she had cried in the locker room. She has to face Serena on Wednesday night , whom she is 0-7 against and doesn’t feel like she has a much of chance to upset the American. She recently joked that maybe she should try playing Williams left-handed. Maybe she should attempt to tie Serena’s left arm and left foot together and see if she can beat her while she’s falling over.

The other Wednesday matches are Errani versus Li Na (Red Group) and Azarenka versus Jelena Jankovic (White Group) Here is Jankovic discussing her long road back to the top 10.

 Here is why Errani won’t defend her Acapulco title.

Here is my update on the Russian Fed Cup drama, where captain Shamil Tarpischev can’t seem to find one top 100 player to compete with him. Three of his top players will compete in Sofia instead. I will head to Sardinia for the fed Cup final next week. Stan Wawrinka took a big loss in Basel but can still qualify for the ATP World Finals. Tom Berdych also lost, but he should make it to London anyway. The Masters event in Paris/Bercy will be huge this year. Roger Federer did score a win and passed  his buddy Stan in the points race. Azarenka says that she would rather see the men reduce to two out of three sets at the Slams than the women play three out of five.

Prince and Babolat have both introduced new racquet collections.

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tennis journal oct 2013

TEB BNP Paribas WTA Championships-Istanbul : Can anyone stop Serena?

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(L-R) Sara Errani of Italy, Agnieszka Radwanska of Poland, Petra Kvitova of Czech Republic, Serena Williams of USA, Victoria Azarenka of Belarus, Li Na of China, Jelena Jankovic of Serbia, and Angelique Kerber of Germany pose with the Billie Jean King trophy for the official photo of the TEB BNP Paribas WTA Championships-Istanbul (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images for WTA).

 

By Matt Cronin

ISTANBUL – There is no title run that is inevitable before it is played, but Serena Williams comes into the TEB BNP Paribas WTA Championships-Istanbul perhaps as a heavier favorite than she has been at any time during her storied career.  She hasn’t lost a match since the Cincinnati final when she went down No 2 Victoria Azarenka in a third set tiebreaker, but she ended up getting revenge on the Belarusian in the US Open final and then trounced the field in Beijing.

She leads the tougher Red Group, which also includes Agnieszka Radwanska, whom she owns; Petra Kvitova, who plays her tough but has yet to beat her; and Angelique Kerber, who has beaten her once. Sure No. 2 Azarenka has a chance against her should she get out of the White Group that includes Li Na, Sara Errani  and Jelena Jankovic, but she is going to have to play at much higher level than she did in the third set of their US Open clash.

Radwanska has played Williams tight on occasion, but does not seem to bring the same confidence level to the court against her than she does against most of other players. In fact, the former Wimbledon finalist appears to be saying her chances against her are very slim.

“We have a couple matches, different matches, but, for example, the match in Toronto, I guess it was really, really close, and just a few points I was away from those two sets,” the Pole said. “So I think it was one of the best matches we played against each other.  So against her you really have to play 100%.  If not, it’s really tough. She’s dictating everything from the beginning of the match, and served very good also, return is also very powerful and always going forward. It’s very tough to stay in the game and really running, really far from the baseline. I think against her you really have to try to, play aggressive from the beginning of the match.  If you start too slow it’s not good.”

Kerber is one of the few players have beaten Serena in the past 18 months, having taken her down in the 2012 Cincinnati quarters, but says she can only “hope’ to play at that level again. The strong-legged left-hander is an excellent defensive player and can also produce a fairly high level of offense, but has a tendency to get negative against top players and there is no way she can beat Serena unless her belly is full of self-belief.

Kvitova is 0-4 against Williams, but did take her to 7-5 in the third set in a defeat in Doha earlier this year.  That was the first time she really thought she had a chance to beat her. She did not, but at least she matched big strokes with her and hurt her with her often wicked left-handed serve.

“It was really great match for my side, and I was very close to win the match but I didn’t,” she said.  But it’s okay.  I think that I can improve my game too, and, I think it was for the first time when I really knew that I can really play her and any chance to beat her.  I don’t think that I’m really like mentally down for right now when I have her in the group.  So I’m looking forward.”

Li Na appears to have the kind of game to be able to upend Williams: a strong first serve, bullet returns, hard groundstrokes and a load of experience. But Serena seems to beat her to the punch every time out including in the US Open semis, where she butchered her in the first set and then took a well played second set.

“Even I lose her in the US Open, I still feel if I, how you say, like I said at US Open, because the match I lose to myself; is not lose to opponent.  Doesn’t matter who against me the time, the day; I already lose the match. So, yeah, at least I learn something. I still learn every day. If I have chance to play against her again, I wish I can doing [just as] well.”

Serena constantly talks about how she respects every opponent and does not under estimate them and really, you have to believe her given that she has lost only a handful of matches all season long. She realizes that she is the favorite, but does not want to deal with that tag every time out, but of course she wants to be the leading lady, too. Indoors, with her serve and in great health, she has more weaponry than any other player in the field. Clay is the only surface, which sometimes troubles her, and she did win Roland Garros this year, so at least in 2013 she’s been the most accomplished player on the soft stuff too. Outside of the absent Maria Sharapova, she knows that she will have to confront at least four of the world’s best player to win the crown.

“I’m always considered a favorite in a tournament,” she said. “ I don’t think about it.  I don’t like it, but I don’t hate it.  You know, it’s better to be considered a favorite.  I also do well when I’m considered the underdog.  I never consider myself a favorite because every opponent I play has a chance to do really well.”

Other than defending her title, Williams does not have a tremendous amount to play for. She does not need this title or positive momentum going into next year. But she is performance oriented and thinks she can better herself each time out. Perhaps that she has kept herself head and shoulder above the field.

“What I think is great about it is I’m still looking to improve, and what I learned most about this year is I have a lot of room for improvement, and talking with my coach over it, I’m so excited for next year just to take my game to a new level,” she said.

Tuesday Order of Play, starting at 5 PM Istanbul time

Azarenka vs. Errani,

Williams vs. Kerber

Radwanska vs. Kvitova

 

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Rating the WTA’s top 10 up and comers

stephens, sloane 13 aussie

TR Retro: Djokovic in 2008-2009: Novak reflects on Roddick controversy & career in transition

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Djokovic was a bit more raw back at the 08 Open

 

Editor’s Note: In a recent discussion on his new Fox Sports Live show, former No. 1 Andy Roddick says that he and Novak Djokovic once got into a physical confrontation in the the US Open locker room, where Roddick pinned the Serbian against a locker.  At that time, Djokovic had developed a reputation for retiring too frequently, and the American wondered before his loss to Djokovic in the quarters in a joking manner if his foe might have  “a back and a hip? And a cramp, bird flu or SARS?” Here is the news story on the incident and what Roddick had to say on his Fox show about the incident.  The following article was written after a one on one interview with Djokovic in the spring of 2009.

Novak Djokovic is controversial, but he doesn’t want to be.

The world No. 3 has a strong desire to be his sport’s superior player, but he can’t yet stomach everything that comes with it — to be in the spotlight every waking moment, good and bad.

In public, the 21-year-old Serbian can’t be the funny guy anymore. There will be no more hilarious impressions of his friend Maria Sharapova’s serve, of his rival Andy Roddick’s twitches, of a frenitic Nadal tugging at his wedgies and especially of his locker room nemesis Roger Federer flicking his hair or clapping his racket in celebration.

“I’m in the transition,” Djokovic said. “It’s not easy because I’m very emotional. Some things really hurt me, and maybe I express myself a little bit too much — people didn’t get used to that. But at the end of the day, you sit and think to yourself, ‘I’ve reacted the way I felt that’s right.’ Maybe it’s wrong, but you learn from your mistakes. That’s why life is testing us all the time.”

Djokovic has gone from being the tour’s boy wonder after winning his first Grand Slam title at the ‘08 Australian Open to the most vulnerable member of the sport’s so-called Big 4, which also includes Rafael Nadal, Federer and Andy Murray.

Since winning his first major, Djokovic has been a trademark up-and-down player. After winning the ‘08 Indian Wells title, he could surely claim the unofficial moniker of best player of the first quarter of last season, and the relentless baseliner looked like he might be prepared to knock Federer and Nadal out of the two top spots.

But then he began to wear down, partly due to the tremendous pressure he put on himself to snag the No. 1 ranking. A title run at the Rome Masters Series was followed by a brutal loss to Nadal at Roland Garros, which was followed by an upset at the hands of Marat Safin at Wimbledon. Then Nadal stepped on him again in a terrific Olympic semi.

Nearly spent but still determined, the Serbian reached the U.S. Open semis, but after confronting a hostile (“Andy’s our man”) nighttime crowd after his quarterfinal victory over Roddick in the quarters, he didn’t have the will to defeat Federer again and was buried.

Before his match against Djokovic, Roddick had been asked about his foe’s latest injury. By that time, Djokovic had developed a reputation for retiring too frequently, and the American wondered in a joking manner if his foe might have the “bird flu or SARS.”

Roddick’s typically caustic comments were well publicized and cycled right back to Djokovic, who was enraged. After he won the quarterfinal, he went right at the crowd and well-lubricated boos reigned down from the rafters.

“Maybe the experience from the U.S. Open with Andy was something that I really didn’t wish for and really didn’t look for,” Djokovic said. “But it hurt me. His comments hurt me in that moment, and it was a misunderstanding. Unfortunately, there was a lot at stake; it was the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam, lot of emotions, lot of frustrations going on. At the end of the day, maybe if you could turn back things, maybe you wouldn’t do something like that, but I just felt emotion in that moment.”

Even before he won his first major, he was criticized for bouncing the ball too much before serving and for saying that the then untouchable Federer was vulnerable. His parents, father Srdjan and mother Dijana, were said to be overly enthusiastic while watching their son courtside. Last year, an irritated Federer even hushed them (“Quiet!!!”) during a Monte Carlo match.

But the Djokovics are from a different part of the world, Serbia, where beating one’s chest while celebrating the righteousness of the homeland is part of every day life. There are outspoken Serbians like the Djokovics, who attend political  rallies  supporting their country’s controversial claim that Kosovo is part of its territory, and others, like Ana Ivanovic’s family,  which tend=== to speak more to peace than to confrontation.

But despite their personality differences, Ana and Novak remain close, having known each other since they were four, as Ivanovic’s father and Djokovic’s uncle went to school with each other.

One day at a 12-and-under tournament in Serbia, the two  went out to warm-up prior to one of Ivanovic’s matches.  “I had quite an easy opponent and I warmed up with Novak and I gave 100 percent and I couldn’t move in the match and I lost,” recalled Ivanovic with a laugh. “I wanted to beat him but he’s a boy and stronger and I was running crazy and it was unbelievable hit, but afterward I was gone.”

Djokovic clearly recalls the contest and the days  he spent laughing with his childhood friend, long before she won the French Open  and became No. 1.

“I remember her parents coming up to me and saying, ‘Wow, what a serve you have.’ It’s fun because we have great friendship all our life. We’ve been through a lot===, a lot of junior events and it’s fantastic to see somebody that you’ve grown up with doing so well. We talk and remind ourselves of stories and situations we have before — matches, and practices, makes you laugh, makes you say — ‘wow, it was so long time ago.’”

Then, there was no discussion of Serbia climbing to the top of the tennis world. Novak and Ana  lived working to middle class existences and even their driven parents how no idea that they would excel, not when they were scratching out livings in war-torn cities and mountain areas. But the kids had an inkling of better days ahead.

“You could see that desire in her and myself, that there was this hunger for success, this hunger to succeed and that’s exactly what brought us here,” Djokovic said.  “We didn’t have good conditions at all to grow up, to practice. We got coaches, we were lucky to have some people that really were good for us at certain stages and taught us. But it’s more parents who really helped us out a lot. Her parents and mine are very strong personalities, very active, very helpful. They were never pushy — on my side, they never pushed me to play because nobody played tennis in my family. But they were just supporting the fact that I love playing so I’ve been grateful for that.”

Djokovic isn’t sure that after he retires, whether he’ll go into politics, but credit him for not putting his head in the sand like a lot of 21-year-olds do and joining the ATP Players Council, where he sits with his rivals Nadal and Federer. He’s also become an active businessman, as he and his family bought an ATP tournament and will run the first time event in Belgrade in May, an accomplishment he is most proud of.

He’s not saying yes to a post retirement career in the Serbian’s political hotbed, but he’s not saying never, either

“You don’t know where the holy path will take you,” he noted.  “But for now I love being in sport and love this surrounding. But on the other hand, traveling, meeting new people, you can learn so much from this sport, from this way of living.”

Djokovic learned a big lesson last year, when his  impersonations — those wildly entertaining, near perfect characterizations that had the crowds in stitches. But some top (slightly up tight) players weren’t exactly chuckling, especially Federer. And when Roger talks, people listen.

“It’s not just players,” Djokovic said. “It was a lot of speculation, and I just didn’t like the fact that people thought I’m doing that to make fun of somebody. … I don’t blame anybody, but it’s all in the circle of positive, and laughing and smiling and enjoying life.

“I don’t want to do it more because I don’t want to create unbalance and turn the people against me for no reason. I’m really in a good relationship with most of the players. I’m an honest guy, I open up and I say what I need to say. And this is the philosophy of my life — be what you are.”

Unfortunately, some other things were beyond his control. There was the conclusion of Djokovic’s extraordinary ’08 Aussie Open title run, which included a remarkable upset of Federer in the semis and beat down of big Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the final.

A couple of hours after that match, Dijana was approached by IT and, full of celebratory fervor, issued a line in reference to Federer that still haunts her son to this day: “The king is dead. Long live the new king.”

When reminded of the comment, Novak spoke of his mom’s honesty and openness. “I think you can see that in me as well. You can see the connection.”

But outright honesty and a win-at-all-costs attitude can be costly, which is why Djokovic is still trying to fashion a personality that will allow him to be liked on court and off.

After the U.S. Open fiasco, Djokovic scraped for much of the fall, but he finally picked himself off the canvas and won the Tennis Masters Cup in Shanghai.

Then came his Aussie Open title defense and his body failed him miserably, as he retired in the quarters against Roddick due to heat exhaustion when many felt he should have played on. He won the Dubai title, but at Indian Wells, he fell to Roddick again, admitting he played miserably.

At this point, going up against America’s top player in the U.S. appears too much for him, not because Roddick has a larger skill set, but because Djokovic has essentially psyched himself out, thinking that crowd is out to get him.

Djokovic is certainly good enough to eventually grab the No. 1 ranking and win more Slams. He’s a tremendous defensive player who is capable of going on the offensive when his foes least expect it. When his head is in matches, he’s a master of point construction. He’s extremely fast and sturdy and has improved his first serve and volleys a great deal.

But the Serbian – who shares a PR manager with Nadal –  has slipped behind the Spaniard, owning a 4-11 record against him (all those wins coming on hardcourts). If he can’t start taking bites out of Rafa’ legs, there’s no way he’s going to reach No. 1.

“Rafa’s improved drastically on hardcourts and fast surfaces,’ Djokovic said.  “It’s amazing, his dedication. It’s fantastic the way he’s motivated, the way he behaves on the court, so focused, sportsmanship, and everything in general. No bad words for this guy. But look, we are rivals at the end of the day. I’ve beaten him a couple of times on [hard courts] which is encouraging. But even on clay I don’t think he’s unbeatable. No one is unbeatable. Physically, everybody is very fit, hard workers, focused. The difference is mental ability. The difference from the five to six guys on top and the rest, in these certain moments, you know how to play, how to behave, how to act on court. That’s the advantage.”

A pretty intelligent and privately thoughtful  guy, Djokovic knows how to win and has the tools to do so, but if he’s unable to successfully negotiate a personal transition that he’s comfortable with, he may never achieve his goals.

“Everybody is different,” he said. “It depends from which part of the world you are coming. I’ve been through some things that people never will, probably. I came from a country, which is going through a lot of tough times — wars. I’m going to say to myself, ‘Look, maybe these things were meant to be, and these things help me know to appreciate the life much more. I know that being positive and enjoying the life is something that everybody wishes for.”

The ATP Race to London continues in Asia

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Wawrinka is chasing his first birth in the final eight.

1. Rafael Nadal: The Spaniard is way, way ahead in the point’s race, nearly 3000 points in front so unless disaster strikes the number one ranking is his for the taking. Nadal did not play at all last fall and current No. 1 ranked Novak Djokovic is defending 2,610 points with 2012 titles in Shanghai and the Barclay’s ATP World Finals.

Essentially, Nadal’s goals during this stretch where he will play Beijing, Shanghai, Paris/Bercy and London would be not to beat up his knees and make sure that he comes into World Tour finals well rested because his failure to win it is perhaps the only black mark  on his rapidly expanding resume.

2. Novak Djokovic:  By his 2011 standards, this has not been a great season for Djokovic. He has been very good for the most part, but outside of his Aussie Open title run, he has rarely been great. There is no question that he is lacking confidence against the other super elite players in big matches, as his play in the Wimbledon and US Open finals – especially in the fourth set in New York– attest to.

The Serbian is constantly trying to improve and he is venturing to net more, so since his No. 1 ranking will almost surely go to Nadal, his intention should be to try and smooth out the rough edges of his game and rediscover his self belief against the big boys, so when he gets to London, he can put up a ferocious title defense and go into 2014 feeling much better about his prospects.

3. Andy Murray: Most on the British press who follow Murray closely don’t believe he will be able to play the ATP World Finals due to his back surgery, so after his post Wimbledon swoon (which may have been partly due to his back pain) he needs to rest up, rehab and get ready for an assault on the No. 1 ranking in 2014

4. David Ferrer: The Spaniard did such a fine job in reaching his first Roland Garros final, but after Nadal terrorized him his level dropped: he took a straight set loss to Del Potro at Wimbledon, two shocking losses to Alex Bolgomolov and Dmitry Tursunov in Canada and Cincy, and then let go of a two sets to love lead against Richard Gasquet at the US Open. He’s 31 now and has played a relentless schedule since he turned pro in 2000. His days of consistently going deep at big tournament may be behind him. However, he’s pretty much locked up place in London as assuming Murray pulls out, he’s more than 2100 points over the Gasquet, who is in ninth place.

5. Thomas Berdych:  It’s been a respectable but not standout year for the Czech, who hasn’t reached a final since February. Stan Wawrinka spanked him at the US Open and while Berdych’s game  will always  feature substantial doses of power, he isn’t as clear headed and motivated as he was during the last couple of years. A big fall push would sure help to get him back on track. He’s only 865 points ahead of Jo Tsonga, who is one out of London right now. The only way he can pick up substantial points this week at the ATP 250 in Bangkok is to actually win the title.

6. Juan Martin Del Potro: The towering Argentine’s left wrist is feeling better and he has taken a wild card into Tokyo. He’s an excellent player, but he’s been struggling with wrist injuries in both arms since late 2009 and it’s conceivable that he will never be all the way back, or be able to progress much due to his ailments. Frankly, he cannot win a major is all he can do is slice one handed backhands. He’s in decent shape in the point’s race as long as he doesn’t implode. A couple quarters and semifinals should get him back to London.

7. Roger Federer: Despite having his worst season since 2002 – which was just before he came into his own as a great player – Federer still stands at seventh in the points race and although he is in a slump, he’s an excellent indoor player and it would be stunning if he didn’t reach London. Sure, his confidence is down and he’s likely fiddling with a new racquet again, but at the very least knowing that he have a chance to ply his trade again in still air again should give him reason to hope. In fact, since 2001 there has only been one year, 2009,  when he hasn’t won an indoor title. While he many not grab one this year, it’s hard to see Federer not reaching at least one final.

8. Stan Wawrinka: In many ways this has been the No. 2 Swiss best season and he may soon be the top Swiss if he progresses further in Malaysia and puts up strong results in Beijing and Shanghai. The US Open semifinalist is not only swinging from the hips but playing smarter and more confidently. With his colorful game he would be an excellent addition to  the field in London.

9. Richard Gasquet: The Frenchman is having a very consistent year and a very good one as of late with his US Open semifinalist appearance. He has reached the semis  of Bangkok this week but only a title would add a decent amount of points to his total. If he keeps his nose to the grindstone, he’s a good bet to reach the ATP Finals.

10. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: The Frenchman had a good comeback week in Metz, reaching the final, but is his knee really healthy enough to withstand the six week grind and make a run at London.? Possible, but doubtful

11. Milos Raonic:  We all realize how much upside the Canadian has and it now it looks like his new coach Ivan Ljubicic  has found a way to steady him mentally so he can perform better at major events and more consistently. Since August he’s reached the final of Montreal, the fourth round of the US Open and now is in the semis of Bangkok. But as of Friday he was 540 points behind Gasquet, which means that he’ll have to put up strong results in Tokyo and Shanghai and likely Bercy to be able to make a huge push at London.

12. Tommy Haas: It’s been an impressive season for the 35 year old German, but even though he still has elite ability in two out of three set tournaments and can play on any surface, does he really want to put himself through the meat grinder to qualify for the years end championships again? Questionable

13. John Isner: The only American in contention was 710 points behind Gasquet as of Friday, which make it near mandatory for him to do deep in Beijing, Shanghai and Bercy. For whatever reason he has never performed well on tour during the fall, going 2-3 in that part of the season last year. He’s capable of confidently dictating and making a charge, but he’s going to have to want it very badly.

Picture of the Day, Sept. 26: Hingis camps reacts

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WTA Post US Open review and the Race to Istanbul

 

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Serena smoked Li in New York, but can China’s top player rise up at the Premier tournament in Beijing?

There are currently 13 players with a decent chance to make the season ending WTA Championships in Istanbul, October 22-27.  Two players have already made it, No. 1 Serena Williams and No. 2 Victoria Azarenka. Third ranked Maria Sharapova, who has been contending with bursitis in her right shoulder, is as of this point doubtful to recover in time. No. 7 Marion Bartoli has retired.

Assuming Sharapova does not play, at least for this week that leaves nine players with decent shots for the final six spots. No. 11 Sloane Stephens is just one spot out if Sharapova and Bartoli don’t play, while Nos. 12-15 Angie Kerber, Sabine Lisicki, Caroline Wozniacki  and Simona Halep have a lot of ground to catch up but have outside shots  if they put up great results during the next three weeks.

Three big tournaments begin next week, with Tokyo, Beijing and Moscow ahead.

1. Serena Williams: The world’s best player was both heartened and relieved when she won the US Open by racing past Azarenka in the third set. Now the rest of her year is all gravy as she managed to win two Slams this season. When Serena is playing loose, she is super dangerous, as it’s been when she has been tight this season that she has suffered losses. She says she’s planning on playing Beijing (she rarely plays in Asia so the proof will be in the pudding), but she will no doubt be motivated to defend her title in Istanbul and show the rest of the elite players that the 32 year old plans on ruling the tour until she finally puts her rackets down.

2. Victoria Azarenka: Despite a few injuries this year, the Belarussian’s fitness has improved overall: she is much stronger and faster specimen than she was say even three years ago. But the drop in her level after she stole the second set from Serena in New York was troubling. While she has shown that she has the game to best Williams, she has yet to beat her at major. Two wins over her older rival in Beijing and Istanbul would serve her very well heading into 2014.

3. Maria Sharapova: She was told to take two to three months off to cure her shoulder after Wimbledon, but she didn’t,  played Cincinnati and practiced all the way up until he US Open, so it’s hard to see her injury fully healing by the time the first ball is tossed up in Istanbul. But…she is stubborn and misses competing so if she doesn’t feel like she’s putting her 2014 at risk, she may show up and play. It’s doubtful, but she can’t be totally ruled out just yet.

4. Agnieszka Radwanska: Even if she wins Korea on Sunday, is that enough reason to think that she can go on another brilliant fall run like she did in 2011 when he won Tokyo and Beijing back to back? No it isn’t. At this point, her 2013 is a disappointment: as good as Ekaterina Makarova can be there is no reason the Pole should have lost to her at the US Open, much less going down to Sabine Lisicki at Wimbledon. If she doesn’t start to schedule more smartly and learn to peak at the big events, she’ll never win a major.

5. Li Na: Sure, she played Serena very tough in the second set of her 6-0, 6-3 loss to her in the US Open semis. But to have a bagel hung on her by a player whom she has pushed so far before in a Slam semifinal? That shows just how mentally fragile she is. Her coach, Carlos Rodriguez must fully realize by now that he does not have another super mentally tough player in his stable like he did with Justine Henin.

6. Sara Errani: She admitted at the US Open that she is having massive trouble contending with the expectations that are put on top players, hence her 6-3, 6-1 loss to her countrywoman Flavia Pennetta. In some ways she was already overachieving, so what chance does Errani have to keep up a top-10 level without her legendary fight? A very slim to none one.

7. Petra Kvitova: For whatever reason, I keep expecting the tall and powerful Czech to make a push at No. 1 and then she gets sick again and lets down at another major, like she did in her 6-3, 6-0 loss to Alison Riske in New York. [And that’s not a typo, the 6-0, 6-3 score seems to be popular figure coming out of New York]. If Kvitova continues to contract a virus every few months, she’ll never win another big title. If she can get healthy for an extended period, then she’ll be a threat again. But I am taking a full-on wait- and-see approach when it comes to her now.

8. Marion Bartoli: She has retired, at least for now, but the real stunner would be if she never attempts a comeback after all the attention on her dies down.

9. Jelena Jankovic: “JJ” will surely go to the ends of the earth to gain what she believes is to be a deserved spot in the final eight club. She has shown flashes of her former No. 1 play at times this season, but she evaporated quickly in her 6-3, 6-0 loss to Li at the US Open. She may no longer be a considered to be a consistent threat to the super elite, but she will be occasionally based on pride alone.

10. Roberta Vinci: The Italian is a very decent, but not a great hard court player who may have the Fed Cup final more on her mind than reaching the Championships in singles. She and Errani are a lock for the doubles, so perhaps she’ll focus on helping boost her friend’s confidence level during the Asian swing. However, Sharapova and Bartoli won’t play she is sitting at No. 8, so for her to completely fall out, the likes of Stephens, Kerber, Lisicki and Wozniacki are going to have to make substantial pushes.

11. Sloane Stephens: The youngest player in the top 15, the 20-year-old Stephens finds herself only 104 points behind Vinci for the final spot assuming that both Sharapova and Bartoli don’t play. Even if Sharapova does, she is only 99 points behind Vinci, which gives her a clear shot.

Stephens played Serena close in the first set of her 6-4, 6-1 loss to her rival in New York, but let down in the final game of the set and then lost focus in the second. She almost has enough game to play with anyone, but she does go on mental walkabouts, which is a no-no against the veterans.

She is seeded No. 9 in Tokyo, opening against Voegele, possibly facing junior rivals Genie Bouchard or Monica Puig in round two, and maybe Jankovic (should she get past Laura Robson) in the third round. Should she face and best JJ, she will pick up 100 points on the Serbian. Then she may have to play Azarenka in quarters in a rematch of their Aussie Open semifinal. Sloane’s week ahead sounds very challenging, and very fun.

12. Angelique Kerber: Does anyone recall that the German lost a third set tiebreaker to Suarez in New York, who then went on to be double bageled by Serena? Angie looks tough on the outside, but hasn’t shown much elite resiliency this season. She needs to loosen up and start playing more aggressive.

13. Sabine Lisicki: The ace-bombing German has done little since her Wimbledon heroics as she is struggling to stay in lengthy points on hard courts. She is capable of making a push, but she needs to be more patient and not get so anxious in big matches.

14. Caroline Wozniacki: The Dane is currently ranked No. 8, but she is defending 835 points from her fine fall play in 2012, so she is going to have to play just as well or better to make it. However, the most important thing for the Dane is to keep working on finding her elite level again, which she did not show in the third set of her loss to Camilla Giorgi in New York.

15. Simona Halep: The young Romanian caught fire this summer, but may have overplayed. She’s a terrific ball striker, but still needs to mature. She is 535 points behind Vinci so she is going to have to really catch fire again.

 

 COMING MONDAY: ATP POST US OPEN/DAVIS CUP REVIEW AND THE RACE TO THE WORLD FINALS IN LONDON

 

A lucky 13 in New York for Rafa

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