Way back, during the middle of their long and winding career roads, Rafa Nadal and Fabio Fognini have played each other 16 times. They have played each other, all over the world. In reality, there were some so-so matches. But there have been some incredible contests, like when the Italian was down two sets at the 2015 US Open and he came back, shocking the Spaniard in five sets. Fognini was on fire. Playing in the New York night, he managed to hit so many winners, with his spinning forehand and backhand, and then flatten them out.
But after that, Nadal continued to improve his backhand and at the net. Since then, Nadal won six matches, while Fognini had just one. That is why Nadal has won 20 Grand Slams. He is the favorite on Monday. He knows that so he has to go for the lines pretty early. When he is healthy, he can grind it, but when Nadal is slightly hurt, he has to leap try to dominate early.
Fognini has also improved over the past couple years, improving his focus. He still can be frustrated when he isn’t going well, but he also lifts his head and he continues to fight. If Fognini is close, then he has to continue banging at Nadal’s backhand. Nadal has refined his backhand, but it is not perfect.
Another Italian, Matteo Berrettini, is more mature and thoughtful. He finally understands where he is going, and also, when he should mix it up. He will face Stefanos Tsitsipas, the cool Greek. Tsitsipas can be patient, or he can go for too much too early. He is tall;his first serves are very hard and his returns is high. He does have a shot to win it all. He is that talented.
How about American Mackenzie McDonald who made it into the round of 16? No one knew him, outside when he played college at UCLA and won the 2016 NCAA singles and doubles crowns. When he turned pro, he was ready to move up higher and higher, but he became seriously hurt, and he had to stop for many months. Now he is back, and he is true-blue. However, he has to face against Daniil Medvedev, another one who can wins a Slam. The Russian made it into the final at the 2019 US Open, and he almost won, but Nadal beat him in the fifth set. If McDonald plays great, he can push Medvedev, but he isn’t ready yet to overcome the top-5 players. Yet … Another American, Jessica Pegula, has been around for 10 years. It took her a long time to become assertive and accomplished. On Monday, she faces the steady, No. 5 Elina Svitolina. It is time for Pegula to hop in Melbourne.