ATP Finals: It is all about exposure

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Next week at the ATP Finals at London, the top seeds will be the favorites, with Novak Djokovic and Rafa Nadal. Not like the Slams where matches are three out of five sets, the ATP Finals play two out of three.

That is why the Serbian and Spaniard, who have won so many Grand Slams, won’t be the overwhelming favorites. But, at least US Open champion Dominic Thiem will represent the youth movement, having one a Slam. The others can’t claim one. However, in their favor, is the indoor environment and quick courts.

To start, on Monday, Thiem will face Stefanos Tsitsipas, and, at night, Nadal will play Andrey Rublev. On Tuesday, No. 1 Djokovic will be against Diego Schwartzman, and then it will be Daniil Medvedev versus US Open finalist Alexander Zverev

Believe it or not, Nadal has been spotty in London. Going in, he won 16-12. Perhaps his legs are sore at the end of the year, and that is a portion that he just wanted to go home. But, this year he hasn’t played many matches. Plus, he likes to rally, and when the court is quick, he can pound fast.

This is the first time that Andrey Rublev will play the ATP Finals. Over the past couple months, he has risen, smashing the ball and being more rational. But can he attack early and make sure that he won’t push into Nadal’s amazing forehand. He must mix it up and try to sprint into the net. Three years ago, Nadal crushed him at the US Open. But, that is then, and now the years favor the Russian. If Rublev has no fear, then he could push Nadal. He can control what he is doing, and drive Nadal into the wall. The problem is Nadal thinks hard all the time and he can change his tactics. It might go to the third set, but Nadal will win it.
 
Exactly one year ago, Tsitsipas won the event, edging Thiem 7-6(4) in the final. The tall hitter kept on chucking, hustling, and go for the lines anytime he wanted to. After that, Thiem won a Slam and he showed that he was super splendid. The Greek Tsitsipas had a good year, but sometimes he would check out mentally and really fall off. And then he will lose. But, on different days, he is totally into it, staying way back with some good spin, or blitz into the net.

Tsitisipas and Thiem had played seven times: four wins by Thiem, and three by Tsitsipas. They have played each other in 2018 and 2019. But this year, they haven’t played each other, hampered by the COVID-19 break.

Both of them are cagey, and they will twist and vie for position. Thiem and Tsitsipas will get into the third set, and at the end, the Greek will touch the lines. It is all about exposure.