The Picks on clay: Charleston and Houston: Wednesday, April 5

Paula Badosa
Mal Taam/MALTphoto


Leylah Fernandez over Paula Badosa (written before play began)
The 20-year-old Fernandez can look startling, but then, she will stop where she is going. She is very briskly, running, and she can be fitting, but she doesn’t go enough to smash the ball.  At the 2021 U.S. Open, she reached the final, and it looked like that she is going close to the top, but now, she is ranked No. 51. That is surprising, and currently, she has to do a lot more work.

The Spaniard Badosa had a decent  year in 2022, as she finally realized that if she can kick down the excellent players, when she could grab a lot of matches.  She looked very good, in the three months, and then after that, she began to slink. This year,  she was respectable in Adelaide, but after that, she did very little. Fernandez has come close to winning some matches in 2023 against the very terrific players, many times, but she lost. However, she will nail some fine lines. This time the Canadian Fernandez  will win in three long sets.

Shelby Rogers over Caty McNally
Can Rogers come back and won more matches this year? It is up in the air, because while she can compete, the 30-year-old has no answers when her forehand and her backhand can be to short. Yes, she can be adventurous, but she doesn’t fool enough. However, at some point, she will start to surge again.

At the end of the year, McNally won Midland, an old tournament. Very few of the top players will play in early November, but there are other people who are trying to move up the latter, especially with the young set. The 21-year-old  has scored a couple good wins over the past 12 months, but she isn’t there yet to knock down with the fantastic players. Because of that, Rogers will win in two sets.

Frances Tiafoe over Steve Johnson
At this point, Tiafoe is struggling, inside the courts. Of course he can beat just about anyone, except on the clay, when he is still is not comfortable when he is crawling. Of maybe not, as on the hardcourts, he is almost all of it. Off court, he is a very nice person, but when he is competing, he can frustrate himself. However, he can crash his forehand, his backhand and his first serve. It is really hard to see that he can win a major title in Europe on the clay, and on the grass in England, but at least this week in Houston, he is the top seed. So right now, he really has to bring it.

As we wrote yesterday, Johnson does like to play almost every week, and he does have some solid stokes, but Tiafoe is more potent and fierce. Tiafoe will win in two sets.

John Isner over Gijs Brouwer
Where is Isner going? Yes he will play until he realizes that it is time to stop, because the 37-year-old is playing OK, in the singles, but this year he has not beat a player in the top 40. The former No. 8 American did win some tremendous matches, but physically he is slowing down, when he is running. However, he does think that when he continues to play more, he will begin to throw in his massive serves, and his forehand, too.

His first match in Houston will be against the against the Netherlands,
Brouwer, who has yet to crack the top 100, ever. However, he wants to. given that he is 27-year-old. If he does that, the No. 123 will have a candle. Isner will win in two tiebreakers, once again.

Matt’s current week picks

Correct: Jason Kubler over Fernando Verdasco 
Correct: Steve Johnson over Facundo Bagnis 
Correct: Victoria Azarenka over  Sloane Stephens
Claire Liu over Bernarda Pera

3 out of 4: 75% correct