Notes on a Draw Sheet: Murray smokes Nadal to win Madrid; Kvitova won, on to Rome. Djokovic favored, but is Serena?

Murray IW 13 TR MALT7774

MAY 10 – Props to Andy Murray, who won his first gigantic tournament on clay by beating Rafael Nadal 6-3, 6-2 at Madrid. For the first time against the Spaniard on dirt, he never panicked, he wasn’t afraid, he was very impressive and he actually believed that he could out hit with his phenomenal backhand. Years ago, he stayed way back behind the baseline and frequently push the ball with his forehand, but not anymore. Now he believes that he can crack his forehand when moving forward and he would dictate as fast as he can.

Roger Federer was not going to participate in Rome, but then he lost early against Nick Kyrgios at Madrid and he changed his mind. He played fairly well in winning Istanbul, but he played against the lower-ranked guys. If he is going to go very deep at Roland Garros, he has to beat the better competitors and if he manages to face the other Big 4 (Djokovic, Nadal and Murray) he must be very close. If he does he will become more confident. Kyrgios could play against his fellow Aussie, Bernard Tomic. They are super close and respectful of each other but Tomic doesn’t want the younger kids beating him yet – or ever. However, Nick has to play Feliciano Lopez in the opening round … first things first.

The No. 1 Novak Djokovic decided not to play in Madrid because he was exhausted. So now he will be super fresh. Obviously he is the favorite on clay because Nadal is panicking. Could the Serbian lose? I doubt it, but he will face the former No. 10 Nicolas Almagro, who is very fast and can run around for a long time. Maybe he will go up against Kei Nishikori in the quarters which could be a terrific match if the Japanese keeps forward, and should he face Murray in the semis, well, we know that the Brit is on fire now. He hasn’t beat him in a long time, though.

John Isner has improved since March and now he has a solid draw, playing Joao Sousa in the first round. If he wins there he would face Leonardo Mayer. Rome is slower than Madrid. Isner will have to work very hard, but assuming he scores both wins then it is very likely that he will face Nadal. He has been close of beating him before and given that Rafa is shaky mentally, Isner would have a legitimate. Currently ranked No. 33, the young American Jack Sock could be seeded at Roland Garros. He will have a very tough task against Gilles Simon who, when he is happy and feeling right, can be excellent. You never know when Simon shows up. Oh my, Alexandr Dolgopolov has fallen to No. 73, but good for him for qualifying. We would assume that the former No. 13 is now back on track.

THE WOMEN

Petra Kvitova crushed Svetlana Kuznetsova to win Madrid. She looks faster; she was under control and torching both wings. If she plays as well she did in smoking Serena Williams and Kuznetsova, then she will be a huge threat to win Roland Garros for the first time. But as good as she can be, she rarely has been able to be excellent over a month or so. She can get tired and she can get upset with herself. At Rome, even if she loses, she has to move on. She beat Serena for the first time ever, which was huge because now she finally believes she can beat the best players. If she is feeling good mentally and she is healthy, perhaps the two-time Wimbledon champion can show the world that she has learned how exactly to play the right way at the French Open.

I wouldn’t be concerned about Serena finally losing. It’s impossible to win every time out and on clay over the years. Now the 33-year-old has taken some great wins and some bad losses. She is the favorite at Italy and at Roland Garros, but it won’t be easy. At Rome, she might have to face the former US Open champ Sam Stosur in the second round, which could be a marathon. Check out the potential fourth round: Ana Ivanovic, Belinda Bencic, Daria Gavrilova, Kateryna Pliskova or (gulp) Sloane Stephens. Brutal and extremely tough, who ever it is.

Maria Sharapova played pretty well in Madrid until playing Svetlana Kuznetsova and then she stopped. Now she needs to step it up in Rome. She could play Caroline Garcia in the third round (a match that was very close in Madrid) or against Madison Keys, who is dangerous but who didn’t play well in Spain…Here is the biggest match in the second round: Caroline Wozniacki could face Victoria Azarenka, who has beaten the Dane twice this year. The Belarussian is the favorite so it is up to Wozniacki to figure it out and go for her. She can’t back off all the time if she is going to have a real chance…Here is a shocker: Wozniacki hooks up with the former No. 1 Arantxa Sanchez-Vicario as her coach a few weeks ago, the Spaniard looked pretty good at Madrid and all of sudden Sanchez=Vicario bails out as she says that she cannot be able to travel toRome and Paris. Where did that come from? Why would the three-time RG champion have agreed to help Caro and then wave good buy already? There is something very fishy. Such is Sanchez-Vicario’s strange life.

Rome Drawn and Quartered

 

 

Berdych has taken his excellent Madrid form to Rome.

Flavia Pennetta vs. Serena Williams: The Italian has had a tough time with injuries this year and hasn’t not shown her best form until this week. Serena has been on fire of since Charleston and is either playing well and destroying foes, or not playing very well and outshining and out battling them This is the first match on Center Court and while Pennetta is a terrific mover and fine defense to offense player, Serena will be able be to find the lines with her groundies and returns and win in 2 sets.

Thomas Berdych vs. Rafa Nadal: The Czech plays Nadal very ought and nearly knocked him out in Australia, but Nadal is playing angry and quite effectively after the Madrid fiasco last week. Berdych has been quite good in taking balls early and hitting through the court, but in slower red clay, Nadal will wear him down in point in 2 sets

Novak Djokovic vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: I don’t like this match-up for the Frenchman on dirt, even though he was quite impressive in knocking off Juan Martin Del Potro 6-4 6-1. However, the Serbian will get into Jo’s backhand side, will return him much more consistently than DelPo did and out maneuver him. Take Djokovic in two.

Angelique Kerber vs. Petra Kvitova: This battle of two powerful lefties should be a doozy if Kvitova finds her form. Kerber can beat just about anyone these days, but the Czech is due to start peaking and I get the feeling it will be in Rome. PK in 3 sets.

Roger Federer vs. Andreas Seppi: Huge props to the Italian who came back from the depths to stun Stanislas Wawrinka 6-7(1) 7-6(6) 7-6(6), but having face Federer after that marathon is not a desired draw. Federer did not play great in taking down JC Ferrero, but he’s been money off the ground and his serve is much more consistent than it was last year. Take Federer in a tough 2 setter in front of a raucous crowd.

David Ferrer vs. Richard Gasquet: The Frenchman was outstanding at times in defeating Andy Murray and his sore back, but Ferrer won’t make as many errors as Murray did and will come through in 2.

Dominica Cibulkova vs. Na Li: It

When in Roma retire like some of the women do

Vika's shoulder injury is troubling.

Azarenka & Woznaciki out, Williamses survive, Sharapova vs Ivanovic; Fed’s back and Rafa’s form heal

By Matt Cronin

Remember when Victoria Azarenka couldn

Rome finals: Djokovic RG favorite, Sharapova contender

Sharapova contender after title runs; Novak hits through Nadal again; Maria stops Stosur

Who would have thought after Rafael Nadal won Monte Carlo and Barcelona back to back that the five-times Roland Garros champion would not enter the 2011 French Open as the favorite? Perhaps only the red hot Novak Djokovic, his team, family and his growing group of fans.

Sharapova won her first huge clay title

Once again, Djokovic thumped Nadal on his favorite surface 6-4 6-4 on to win Rome and ran his unbeaten run this year to 37 matches. It was the fourth Masters Series final in a row that he has beaten Nadal in the final and the second on clay. This time, he did despite the fact that he needed more than three hours to best Andy Murray on Saturday. He

Rome Semis: Djokovic edges Murray in thriller, to meet Nadal

Murray: so close yet so far

Sharapova whips Wozniacki, to face Stosur

Andy Murray had a great chance to do it and maybe could have stopped Novak Djokovic

Madrid Semis: Rafa downs inspired Roger; to meet Djokovic

Azarenka

Azarenka to play Kvitova in final

Roger Federer played about as well as he

Rome Quarters: Djokovic to face Murray in AO rematch

Gasquet will face Nadal

Injured Azarenka emotionally implodes vs. Sharapova

Rafa Nadal will now maintain the top spot at least until the end of Roland Garros after he wasted the Croat Marin Cilic 6-1 6-3 to reach the semis Rome Masters. Nadal, who has been fighting a fever, feels much better now and he

Clay doesn’t slow down fast-paced Novak

Novak is on fire.

After the Serb’s 7-5 6-4 triumph over the Spaniard in the final Madrid, it sure looks like the same formula that has been working for Djokovic on hardcourts can be effective on fast clay. Once again, Djokovic served bigger and with better location, was able to get on top of rallies that involved his two-handed backhand to Nadal