Rafa Nadal comes into the ATP Finals with just a week off since he withdrew from the Paris Masters semifinal with an abdominal strain, and there are a lot of questions about him physically — but not about his game.
The lefty can smash his forehand, stay very patient, and is still willing to have long rallies where he will blast it into the corners when the other player is exhausted. The 19-time Grand Slam champion has also improved his backhand — it’s deeper now — and he is tough to beat at the net, when he comes in. Though he stands way behind the baseline when he is returning, almost on the wall, he can get it back regularly and then get into the point.
While people know that he is the best player ever on clay, winning 11 times at Roland Garros, he has won on hardcourts both at the Australian Open and the US Open. So when Nadal is healthy, he can beat them all everywhere.
But the problem for Nadal at the ATP Finals has been being healthy, because he’s withdrawn or retired there six times, exhausted from a long season. This time, he says he doesn’t know what shape he will be in when he takes the court. He really wants to win it, though, badly, and certainly can if he plays like he is capable of.
Serbian Novak Djokovic has won here a lot of times before, and he might do it once again. The photos show why — when he is locked in, his eyes are very wide, and he is looking directly at the ball. He will return deep, and then he will camp on the baseline with his amazing backhand, and he will rally crosscourt until he can knock it down the line. He has won 16 Grand Slams, and this year, the Australian Open and Wimbledon. That was crazy, considering that the Spaniard and Djokovic have played each other 50 times. Most of it, it was darn close.
Djokovic just won ATP Masters Paris, and while he was a little bit injured and off during the last few months, he has been around for a long time and he knows that as long as he practices, he will eventually return playing terrific. Currently, he is very close to playing 100 percent, and he is feeling confident. He wants to become No. 1 again, and push everyone aside. Without a doubt, he is the top favorite to win it again.
Roger Federer has had a solid year. He was unable to win a Grand Slam again, but he also won four tournaments, which means that he is still alive. In July, at Wimbledon, Federer lost 13-12 in the fifth against Djokovic. Even if he lost, he is still good on the move, and he can be spectacular. Federer thinks deeply, and he can change the tactics when he has to, using his variety. At the ATP Finals, he has won a record six titles. He has beaten them all, but he has lost, too. In 2018, he went down to Alexander Zverev. In London, he has a fine chance to win it once again, standing at the net and putting away his volleys. Federer is always very competitive against the top players.
The ATP Finals odds have three distinct tiers, according to Sports Betting Dime. Djokovic (+120) is in a class by himself, followed by Federer (+400), Medvedev (+450) and Nadal (+500). Zverev (+1200), Tsitsipas (+1200), Thiem (+1400) and Berrettini (+2200) are the longshots. The best value among the bottom four looks to be Tsitsipas. With wins over Djokovic, Federer, Nadal, and Zverev (twice) this season, his upside is as high as Medvedev, though his consistency is lacking.
Daniil Medvedev has had an incredible year. He started back in July, when he reached six finals in a row. It took the 23-year-old Russian five years to become smarter and more thoughtful about when to go for it and when to hold back. He is tall, steady and he can rip his first serve, his forehand and his backhand. Now, he’s aiming to show the fans who he is. Recently, Medvedev said that he wants to become No. 1 soon. Yet he first has to upend the big boys — Nadal, Djokovic and Federer. He has a wonderful shot to win it all.
Dominic Thiem is no longer one of the youngsters, as he is now 26 years old. But, the Austrian still has a long career in front of him, so he can grab a major, perhaps next year. On clay, he has reached the final twice at Roland Garros, and looked very good as he has heavy strokes, deep shots, but he could not do enough to upset Nadal.
On the hardcourts, Thiem has improved a decent amount over the last couple years and his first Masters title this season was on this surface. He moves well inside the court, he can be aggressive and go for the lines, both ways, with his forehand and his backhand. Yet to win the tournament would be his best performance ever and, at the moment, he doesn’t quite look close enough.
Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas has had a very good year at times, though he can be up and down. He has played a number of long matches this season, showing he can smash his first serve, pin his forehand and he can also rally, too. He certainly needs to return better, but in the past year, the 21-year-old is very steady with his backhand. Tsitsipas is intelligent, he listens to his coach, and his goal is that one day, he will become the best player on tour.
Maybe he will, but first, in London, he has to focus every moment to upset the great veterans and he must find the corners because of the speed of the indoor court. Tsitsipas may not win it all, but he is very excited to be there for the first time, so he will give it all. To win it would be surprising. He isn’t ready yet. But, soon.
When Zverev is on, he can be very positive, but when he isn’t, he can become very angry. Problems off the court this season have sometimes left him not concentrating fully on the court. That is why from March through September, he lost early and often. Yet in the fall, he recomposed himself, and while he isn’t playing fantastic, but he is much better than he was at the US Open. He was mentally gone there, saying he had no confidence.
It was very different at the 2018 ATP Finals, which Zverev won, beating Federer and Djokovic. It looked like he was going to win a major, but he didn’t. Perhaps, some year, but currently, mentally, at the ATP Finals he is not playing at the level to win it again.
From nowhere, an Italian made into the ATP Finals and it wasn’t even Fabio Fognini. Matteo Berrettini is pretty young, and he has yet to win a big tournament. But, at the US Open, he upset Gael Monfils in the quarters, 7-6 (5) in the fifth. He was overjoyed. When he started the year, he was ranked No. 54, and in April, he took off.
Berrettini is a huge hitter with his forehand, but he can be steady, too. He is 23 years old — so he is still young — and he will have to get better all around. Yes, next year he can make an attempt to enter the top 5, but this week at the ATP Finals, he has virtually no chance to win it. He will be very nervous.