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US Open Women's Draw Analysis

Safina, Ivanovic, Williamses, Dementieva, Jankovic Face off Against the Kids
By Matthew Cronin, TennisReporters.net
Ana Ivanovic

Mal Taam/MALTphoto Will it be thumbs up for Ivanovic?
TOP HALF, FIRST QUARTER
Ana Ivanovic returns as No. 1 and of course, as the top seed, without having won a substantial match since taking her first Slam crown at Roland Garros. She says she’s OK, sort of, her sore right thumb having been able to withstand some practice sessions in Sydney. But AI is rusty, super rusty, and she’s never proven herself to be a Williams sister, meaning the type of player who can go into an event without a lot of matches and still triumph.

This quarter is brutal, as she may have to face the tour’s hottest and most consigned player, Dinara Safina, in the final eight. But getting there won’t be easy, with lefty hard court lover Casey Dellacqua, the strong yet confusing Kaia Kanepi, and the slowly reviving Amelie Mauresmo in her small segment, and that’s before she may have to face the bold Nadia Petrova, or the steady and driven Flavia Pennetta in R16.

Safina has to get there too, and her emotionally-trying loss to Elena Dementieva in the Olympic final could plague her. But there are only two foes pre-AI who might give Safina fits – the muscle-bound Alla Kudryavtseva, who nearly beat her in L.A., and France’s Alize Cornet, who has been nearly relentless this summer. On recent form, Safina thunders her way to her first US Open final, but if Ivanovic regains her stride by the second week, the Russian must beware of the tour’s most ferocious forehand.

FIRST ROUND MATCH TO WATCH: Amelie Mauresmo v. Nathalie Dechy: we never see these two creative French vets face off at a Slam again.

TOP HALF, 2ND QUARTER
Does the world expect too much from the Williams sisters these days? Neither of America’s most decorated women’s players have won this tournament since 2002 and neither has won a hard court tournament this summer. Their Olympic results could be a harbinger of things to come: two tough losses, one from Serena to Dementieva and another from Venus to Li. The potential is there for the sisters to meet in the quarters, but that’s not even guaranteed.

Serena will have to open against the streaky, tattooed Ukrainian, Kateryna Bondarenko and could come against the capable veteran Ai Sugiyama in round three, and then maybe the big game-searching Hungarian teen, Agnes Szavay, in the fourth round. Serena is itching to win the year’s last Slam, but she will have to earn it every time out.

Venus, as we have mentioned again and again, shockingly hasn’t won a major hard court title in five years and has a very rough quadrant, opening against the big serve of Sam Stosur, maybe having to face the scrappy blonde Bondarenko sister, Alona, in the third round and should she get past there, one of two very headstrong youngsters, Agnieszka Radwanska or Dominika Cibulkova in R16. Smell a so-called upset there? Half the locker room does. With that said, Serena is way overdue this summer and it’s not as if Dementieva crushed her in Beijing and she’s way off her game. That extra gear she’s been looking for should come in New York, which should propel her into the semis.

FIRST ROUND MATCH TO WATCH: Szavay v. US 18s Nationals winner Gail Brodsky. Will see if New Yorker has enough to play with a top international teen.

BOTTOM HALF, FIRST QUARTER
This half of the draw is a bit weaker, but not by much. Dementieva heads this quarter and she is without a doubt a top-6 pick to win the event and after her gold medal run finally has the mental credentials to go all the way. Its whether she’s had enough left in the tank emotionally that will tell the tale. She has a decent draw until the fourth rod, where Li or Anna Chakvetadze should be waiting. Both have the tools to take her out, but Li rarely plays well in two straight events and A-Chak is in her show the world you can still play stage,

Sveta Kuznetsova might be her quarterfinal foe, but the 2004 champ is going nowhere fast ad is vulnerable to upsets in nearly every round. Dementieva should be the last Russian standing in the semis.

FIRST ROUND MATCH TO WATCH: Li v. Shahar Peer, who miraculously, is still seeded, but might be good for another slow Ferris Wheel ride.

BOTTOM HALF, SECOND QUARTER
Jelena Jankovic gets her last chance of the year to prove that’s she’s still somebody and must at least reach the final to prove it. She’s had a lousy stretch since she gagged against Ivanovic at the French and it’s hard to see her making a big recovery, but even in her most self-pitying moments, she’s a backboard. Someone must convince that she’s Slam worthy because on great days on hard courts, she can run with anyone. Her big challenge will arrive against play-alikes Caroline Wozniacki or Victoria Azarenka in R16, both who have impressive weapons, but who haven’t shown themselves to be mentally fit enough to knock off top 5 players. It’s this section that’s going to produce the semifinalist because the other quadrant features Vera Zvonareva, who wilts under Slam pressure, and Marion Bartoli, who is lacking self belief.

FIRST ROUND MATCH TO WATCH: Aleksandra Wozniak v. Lindsay Davenport, as the resourceful Canadian looks to retire Davenport in Flushing.