Anne-Marie Stark Will Nadal reach his first USO final four?TOP HALF, FIRST QUARTER
Rafael Nadal is seeded No. 1 at a Slam for the first time and interestingly,
he boasts that distinction at the event where he has done the worst. But
the Spaniard looks like an entirely different player coming into the US
Open this time around– healthy, focused, more lethal inside the
court. It is his tournament to lose, hands down and if he plays as well
as he did in striking Olympic gold, only three men have a real chance
of even touching him.
No one in Nadal’s 16 has enough game to threaten him, not even the
streaky German Philip Kohlschreiber, or the big bomber Ivo Karlovic. Moreover,
whomever comes out of the other 16 will likely be beaten up a bit as it
packed with mini-contenders like James Blake, Paul Henri-Mathieu, Gael
Monfils and David Nalbandian. Blake might have an American puncher‘s
chance against Rafa, but he has to get there first and he’s been
highly inconsistent this year. No one else has the guns or mind to play
with Nadal.
FIRST ROUND MATCH OF INTEREST: Blake v. Donald Young, once the future of
US tennis, now questioning his own place in the game after another year
of marginal results. TOP HALF, 2ND QUARTER
Speaking of firsts, Andy Murray comes into a Slam for the first time as
a top 4 favorite and after winning his first Masters Series title in Cincy,
looks almost ready to measure up against Nadal, Roger Federer and Novak
Djokovic. He might have to face two lefty serve-and-volleyers, Llodra
and Lopez, early, and then tussle with Stan Wawrinka or Mikhail Youzhny
in R16, both of whom could give him a very long match. But Murray has
more shots at his disposal and is fairly adept at making adjustments.
His quarterfinal will not be easy but not impossible either: the rising
Juan Martin Del Potro, the slumping David Ferrer or the possible flash-in-the-pan,
Gilles Simon. If Murray doesn’t make it to the semis, it will be
an extreme disappointment for Scotland.
FIRST ROUND MATCH OF INTEREST: Del Porto v. his proud countryman, Willy
Canas, who is going nowhere fast but who knows the teenager’s game
inside-out. BOTTOM HALF, FIRST QUARTER
Djokovic is the man here, even with ’03 champ Andy Roddick, Aussie
Open finalist Jo Tsonga, young Croatian flamethrower Marin Cilic and Olympic
silver medalist Fernando Gonzalez in the fold. Djokovic is very capable
of fending off big servers like Cilic, his probable third round foe, as
well as a rusty Tsonga, or one of a group of veterans that include Carlos
Moya, Marat Safin and Tommy Robredo in R16. The Serbian defines solid
on hard courts.
Roddick will be much more hard pressed to reach the quarters. His first
round against the old magician, Fabrice Santoro, is sure to played on
Ashe Stadium and will produce some delightful moments, but Santoro left
his more effective black magic in the last century. But Latvian Ernests
Gulbis can take Roddick on big serving day in round two, and Nicolas Kiefer
and Gonzalez could also give him fits in R16. No doubt about it, Roddick
must now prove he’s a legit US Open contender again. Extended action,
not words, will the only thing that satisfies Roddick and his fan base.
FIRST ROUND MATCH OF INTEREST: Safin v. Vince Spadea. Two old warhorses,
one a former titlist who reached the Wimbledon semis, but who has sputtered
again, and the other an aging American who may be playing his last US
Open. Vinny will make sure this a dogfight.
BOTTOM HALF, 2ND QUARTER
Federer was blessed with the easiest quarter amongst the four main contenders,
but he’s shown himself capable of losing to a variety of players
this year, including Radek Stepanek, whom he could meet in the third round.
But other than the up-and-down Serbian Janko Tipsarevic, a potential fourth
round opponent, it’s hard to take the rest of the group seriusly
against Fed, including Verdasco, Andreev, Davydenko and yes, Richard Gasquet,
who has all but disappeared again.
Federer will fight extremely hard to grab his fifth straight Open and
although he has surely sputtered away from the Slam, his results this
year at the majors have included one semifinals and two finals. He’s
still a better pressure player than most. Lock the Swiss into another
semi and then will see if he can send Prince Djokovic back to his room
for some more majestic seasoning.
FIRST ROUND MATCH OF INTEREST: Gasquet v. Tommy Haas, an excellent hard
court competitor who has lost his form this summer, but who has produced
some bang-up results in Queens.
