HOW FAR WILL SHE GO?

Can Serena become one of the all-time greats?

By Ron Cioffi
tennisreporters.net

Susan Mullane Camerawork USA, Inc.

Speed and power.

That conflicting but complimentary pair of athletic assets can make a standout champion an all-time great.

Some of the most fabled athletes of American team sports – Jim Brown, Barry Bonds, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Mario Lemieux, Bo Jackson had/have speed and power. The ability to dash with quickness and then turn around and punish your opponent with power is the hallmark of a great performer in any sport.

Jim Brown, often recognized as the greatest football and lacrosse player ever, was too fast for many to catch. If you got in his way, he would just run over you. Unbeatable.

They say Willie Mays made the best World Series catch ever versus the Cleveland Indians … not just for running down a mammoth drive but also turning and throwing a strike to the infield. Mario Lemieux has the quickness Wayne Gretzky and the size of defenseman/goon. That's why he holds the record of highest average points per game.

These comparisons bring us to the reigning queen of the tennis court – Serena Williams. Serena has speed and power aplenty. A body of rippling muscles, Serena can motor around the court with the speed of Steffi Graf and slam her strokes with the magnitude of Lindsay Davenport. How do you compete with that? Right now, no one on the tour can, including her sister, Venus.

That's not to say that Serena will rack up 10 or 20-plus Grand Slam trophies. Huge strokes and quick feet don't ensure championships in a sport that requires major doses of mental toughness, hand-eye coordination, endurance and court sense. What Serena has going for her are the athletic ingredients that can build the foundation of legend.

THE COUNT IS SIMPLE
Tennis is a relatively simple sport to measure greatness. There are no batting averages to be judged versus home runs, RBIs and stolen bases. You don't need to compare World Series victories, playoff results and All-Star game selections.

Tennis has only two real measures of success: Grand Slam wins (usually singles) and weeks (and years) at No. 1. Serena is way behind in any of those categories compared to the players with which she will be judged.

Player, before 21st birthday	Slam titles	Weeks No. 1
Tracy Austin	2	22
Maureen Connolly	9	N/A
Chris Evert	4	6
Steffi Graf	9	148
Martina Hingis	5	207
Billie Jean King	0	N/A
Martina Navratilova	0	0
Monica Seles	8	178
Margaret Court Smith	7	N/A
Serena Williams	3	7
Venus Williams	2	0
Player, career	Slam titles	Weeks No. 1
Tracy Austin	2	22
Maureen Connolly	9	N/A
Chris Evert	18	262
Steffi Graf	22	378
Martina Hingis	5	209
Martina Navratilova	18	331
Monica Seles	9	178
Margaret Court Smith	24	N/A
Serena Williams	3	7
Venus Williams	4	11
N/A–No world rankings

Let's look at some other all-time greats, especially those who excelled at a young age. Serena will turn 21 on Sept. 26, giving her one more shot at a major before being legally able to drink in most states. She's way behind some of the great teen prodigies of the game, like Steffi Graf and Maureen Connolly, who earned nine Slam trophies. Throw in the likes of Monica Seles and Margaret Court Smith, who won eight and seven, respectively.

But, don't fret, Serena. Some of the game's greatest didn't develop until their twenties. Both Martina Navratilova and Billie Jean King didn't own major hardware when they hit their 21st birthday.

Probably the most telling stat about Serena's past and probable future lies in her weeks at No. 1. She's only been there the last seven weeks, giving her just four more weeks at the top compared to Slams trophies. That shows she's won Slams when she was the dominant player she is today. That bodes well for an athlete who is now ready to exploit that wonderful physique.

OBSTACLE NO. 1: VENUS AND OTHER TOP PLAYERS
What stands in Serena's way to move way up the Grand Slam chart?

Venus. Her elder sister has much of the power and speed that Serena possesses. Venus doesn't have Serena's foot speed, but her size and reach makes her cover nearly as much of the court. Venus' ground strokes are devastatingly hard, but not as biting as Serena's. What Venus has that the rest of the women's envy is a 120-mph serve that she can pop on a regular basis. Venus possesses that champions swagger that's also in Serena's blood, which will propel the elder sister to numerous major titles.

There is a strong possibility the sisters could split Slams like Navratilova and Chris Evert did, going 10 years in which they win one or two. They both have the weapons to be a force for as long as they want. And they've proven over the years to have the drive for excellence which makes champions. That type of motivation won't go away in a few years.

Does this mean that Lindsay Davenport isn't going to win a few Slams in the next five years? No. She is capable snaring one to four majors in that time. Lindsay, especially, has shown a maturity and ability to commit that will enable her to use her dominant size and ground strokes for years to come. Look at her now … wearing a lacy tennis dress to show off her slimmed down figure.

While Martina Hingis will never have a triple-major run like she did in 1997, she will undoubtedly make up for the collapse at the Australian Open last January and bring home another Slam. No amount of conditioning will give her the raw power of any of the other top players because of her size.

Jennifer Capriati remains a major question mark. Take away Martina's gift in Melbourne and she has a two-Slam streak of the Australian and the French in 2001. Her inability to win any more titles this year (she's lost five finals) and a lackluster hard court summer brings up questions about her long-term consistency.

And there are others knocking on the door. The women's tour is loaded with major possibilities; top 10 players Kim Clijsters and Justine Henin are ready to take a big title while Amelie Mauresmo and Jelena Dokic are ready to do some damage.

OBSTACLE NO. 2: INJURIES
Richard Williams has always been cautious about injuries, a conservative stance which will help Serena and Venus play for years to come. Just last week Serena pulled out of the Rogers AT&T Cup in Montreal with acute left knee tendonitis. Undoubtedly, there was some concern about her being ready for next week's U.S. Open. Why risk playing an extra week when the pot of gold is awaiting in Flushing Meadow?

Serena has had more than her share of knee/leg injuries in the past. Most notably, she was sidelined from April to June in 2000 with a meniscus tear in her left knee. So, those incredible wheels have more than a few miles on them. When she needs to do to assure a long career is to be prudent with her schedule, playing enough to keep her ranking but not too much to risk surgery.

OBSTACLE NO. 3: LA DOLCE VITA
The other notable obstacle facing Serena is commitment. Serena has interests like fashion design and college, not to mention the party life. Any and all of these activities (though some are commendable) could rob her of numerous years of tennis grandeur.

Not to say there's anything wrong in branching out. It's hard for some of us to imagine being a multimillionaire as a teenager and not wanting to spend some dough and enjoy life. It's a great testament to athletes like Graf and Seles who are consumed with their sport and exclude the temptation of myriad of diversions, interests and pleasures.

Serena once admitted to spending a minor fortune on clothing she would never use. Thankfully, she did it online from her hotel room instead of running around Paris and wasting precious energy during a Grand Slam. The key is to find the right balance between too much tennis (read: burnout) and too much La Dolce Vita. That's where maturity kicks in.

THE BIG QUESTION
The big question is what will we be saying about Serena in 2010 … a 28-year-old still winning two Slams a year or a young woman who decided there was more to life than chasing a yellow ball on a green court while wearing red dresses and shoes?