Eight Men face off in TMC Houston

Roddick, Federer favored to meet in ATP year-end final
Safin, Hewitt, Henman also pose threats

By Matthew Cronin, TennisReporters.net

Fred Mullane/Camerawork USA

Andy Roddick is the only player with a real shot at knocking off Roger Federer.

There's no doubt that Roger Federer is the tennis player of the year. Still, the top eight men (not counting Andre Agassi) meet in Houston this week for the ATP Tennis Masters Cup, the year-end duel to cap the men's tennis year.

Here is a breakdown of the elite eight's chances.

Andy Roddick: Despite his claims to the contrary, this has not been a great year for A-Rod. Other than an excellent Miami, a strong run at Wimbledon – where he put up a terrific fight against Fed in the final and solid play in Davis Cup against lesser competition – he's come up short when it mattered most. But Roddick is still young and still has much to improve upon, which bodes well for the future if he keeps an open mind to change.

He badly needs to do well here to brush up his year. Moreover, he needs to post a 2004 win over Federer if he is going to seriously challenge him next year. As the only American in the field (how embarrassing is that?), he'll have the crowd firmly behind him. He comes into the tournament fresh and with a tremendous amount of motivation. He's the pick here to win it all.

Roger Federer: By winning three Slams and 10 crowns this year, the Swiss has already posted one of the best years in ATP history. But he's well aware that winning TMC Houston would be a sweet and plump cherry on the cake and nullify his foes' momentum going into 2005. Federer's says his torn thigh feels better, but it's hard to imagine him going wall to wall chasing down balls. He'll play high-risk yellowball and if he's on, he'll repeat as champion. If he's a little off, look for the likes of Roddick, Lleyton Hewitt, Marat Safin or Tim Henman to take him down. Someone will eventually, won't they? It could be Gauston Gaudio on Monday, who has never beaten Federer, but who played him very tough the last time they matched up in Montreal.

Marat Safin: Outside of Federer, he's the hottest player coming into the event coming off title runs at TMS Paris and TMS Madrid. But those titles were won indoors, where he could keep the points shorter on fast surfaces. He's a former US Open champ; it's apparent he can play well on outdoor hard, but he's never been the most best conditioned player out there. A title run wouldn't be surprising for the big Russian, but if he gets bloodied in long rallies during the round robin, he'll get knocked out in the semis or final.

Tim Henman: Now that Henman has proved he can nasty with his home country press off court, it will be interesting to see whether he can be a mean man on court. The Briton will open play against Roddick, whom he has had significant success against, but can also make him look silly if he's serving bombs. Henman isn't in the best of shape coming in, but is quite proud to be part of the mix as the eldest man in the field. A true dark horse, but one worth watching.

Lleyton Hewitt: If Hewitt thought 2003 was rough with his constant battles with the ATP, how about the fall of 2004, when Fed hung two bagels on him in the US Open final and his fiancée, Kim Clijsters, unceremoniously dumped him well before they got to the altar? Understandably, Hewitt is not in a good emotional space right now, but maybe he can find refuge on court. We'll quickly know where his game is during the Monday night match, when he plays Spanish rival Carlos Moya, against whom his record is 5-5.

Fred Mullane/Camerawork USA

Guillermo Coria, left, congratulates countryman Gaston Gaudio on his '04 Roland Garros win.

Carlos Moya: The Spanish veteran really needs the work prior to Davis Cup, as he's been dealing with a number of nagging injuries. Don't expect him to win the tournament, but he'll go all out early to try to secure a place in the semis. Even though Moya has had better years, give him his proper due for still being the highest ranked man in his very deep nation. You don't see the much-hyped Rafael Nadal or so-called up-and-coming Tommy Robredo in the field, do you?

Gaston Gaudio: Given his average results post his spectacular Roland Garros run, the Argentine certainly has the look of a one-Slam wonder. He can disprove that theory this week by making a major impression on hard courts. He'll be inspired, but needs to improve his all-around play if he's going to threaten the big boys on surfaces other than clay.

Guillermo Coria: Is nice for wee Willy show up in Houston, even though he hasn't played in eons due to surgically repaired shoulder. He's the most talented Argentine by a decent stretch, but don't expect him to do much here, because he's way too rusty and wary of his shoulder to start cracking the ball.